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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $136.88EOD only

Max Pain

$135.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.08

4.5% from close

Price Gap

-1.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.96

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.5/10

Neutral tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish short-term with downward bias toward the 1-week lower EM ($121.79) but with large upside pin risk to the $145–$150 max-pain cluster; Confidence: 6.0/10.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6.0: -79.9M GEX (dealer short gamma) drives trending behavior and supports directional moves; Avg IV 69.4% and net premium -$324.5M favor buyers of protection; spot 10.6% below MP reduces conviction for immediate pin. No override — computed factors capture key drivers.

Supports: 1) Large put OI at $120 (20,722) and $130 (17,917) providing structural bid near $120–$130; 2) Gamma flip ~ $120 (dealer buying gamma below); 3) EM and IV show wide two-week downside ($118.84) but calls concentrated at $150–$160 cap upside.
Conflicts: 1) Max pain pinned at $145–$150 across near expiries conflicts with negative GEX (pin vs trend tension); 2) Net premium negative (-$324.5M) and high IV argue for paid protection against down gaps.

📉GEX -$79.9M indicates dealer short-gamma — spot moves will accelerate trend;

📌Max pain cluster $145–$150 across expiries creates an upside magnet and call OI wall at $150–$160;

⚠️Avg IV 69.4% with big short-dated flow into 04/10 calls and puts — expect volatile pin-release on 04/10;

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High: Avg IV 69.4% well above typical equity vols; favors buying protection or selling if willing to absorb large moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending: Total GEX -$79.9M with gamma flip ~ $120 — dealers are short gamma and will accelerate moves away from spot; be careful with short premium if you cannot manage momentum.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium -$324.5M and P/C OI 1.03 show more put demand intraday but large call OI at 150–160; flow is two-way with institutional protection buys and call accumulation.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $130.49 is below Max Pain (~$146) — creates upward pin pressure but currently below MP by ~10.6%, producing tension between pin and dealer short-gamma selling into moves.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and large call OI cluster at $150–$160 persist across multiple expirations and IV term structure remains elevated out to May; regime likely to persist 2–4 weeks so favor 30–45 DTE for core trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$126.94$134.04

Dealer short-gamma (-$79.9M) will amplify moves; break below $126.94 opens momentum to $121.79.

Next 1 week

$121.79$139.19

If spot breaches $126.94 and heavy put flow (129/127 prints) continues, dealers hedge selling drives run to $121.79; failure to break keeps pin risk to $145.

Next 2 weeks

$118.84$142.14

Sustained flows and MP at $145–$150 create upside cap, while gamma flip ~$120 provides downside floor — breakout requires >$150 call OI lift or break <$120.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $146 (2026-04-10); $145 (2026-04-17); $149 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $126.94/$134.04; 1w $121.79/$139.19

Support: $126.94 · $121.79 · $118.84

Resistance: $135.00 · $138.00 · $140.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,722 (8.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $150–$160 caps upside; long-term put floor at $100–$120 supports large-buyers below $120 and marks dealer gamma flip area for directional hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-79.9M

DEX: +91.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,722 (8.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net GEX -$79.9M concentrated above spot (positive call GEX at 150/155/160), gamma flip ~ $120; if spot falls 2% (~$127.88) dealers increase short-delta hedges (selling stock -> accelerates decline); if spot rises 2% (~$133.10) dealers will buy delta to hedge calls but are already net short gamma so rapid upmoves increase realized hedging cost and could create pin pressure to $145–$150 given large call OI there.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 69.4% — rich relative to broad-market VIX (implied) and high for single-name, supports paid-protection and long-dated hedges.

Term structure: Front-week elevated: 04/10 ATM 64.9% -> 04/17 ATM 56.5% -> 05/08 spike to 65.6% (calendar kink around early May); favors buying short-dated tails around 04/10 and selling mid-term vs cheap 04/17/24 where appropriate.

Skew: Put skew elevated near $120–$130 (large put OI at $120/$130); short-dated call buys into 04/10 show one-day vol demand — mispriced opportunity: buy 04/17-05/15 calendar on 130 strikes by selling the higher-IV May leg and buying the lower-IV Apr leg (reverse calendar) to capture ~8.0 vol-pt arbitrage.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$324.5M (institutional net buyers of premium/protection), P/C vol 0.89, P/C OI 1.03 — skew toward puts by OI but large call accumulation at 150–160.

Directional prints: 64.2 call 131 OTM 2026-04-10 — Large 04/10 $131C print Vol=21,902 OI=174 (125.9x) — could be short-call leg of a hedge or aggressive short-dated buy; fits short-dated protection buying into pin. 65.6 put 129 OTM 2026-04-10 — 04/10 $129P Vol=23,841 OI=1,021 (23.4x) — fresh short-dated put demand; more consistent with buy-protection than naked selling given net premium negative.

Unusual: 65.6 call 130 ITM 2026-04-10 — 04/10 $130C heavy print Vol=32,636 OI=268 (121.8x) — sizeable short-dated call activity centered ATM; likely institutional short-dated collar / directional hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$120 — breach will change dealer behavior and can terminate the current trend;

!04/10 expiry (1d) heavy prints create pin-release volatility and vega/event risk;

!High IV (69.4%) and net premium -$324.5M mean buying protection is prevalent — abrupt macro risk (tech selloff) could spike realized vol and widen bid/ask;

!Large call OI wall $150–$160 may cap rallies and create rapid reversion if dealers hedge into strength.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy PLTR stock at market	Exposure to high IV+gap risk; dealers short-gamma can accelerate moves against you.
Short stock	Moderate	Short PLTR shares around $135 resistance	Large call OI at 150–160 creates squeeze risk; require tight stops.
Covered call	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 150C	Capped upside at 150 and delta risk if stock gaps >150; requires equity funding.
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 125/120 put spread	Breaks below 120 (gamma flip) accelerate losses.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 135C for directional upside	High theta and IV may collapse post-pin; expensive entry.
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-04-17 130/125 bear put spread	IV collapse before move reduces payoff; time decay on wide spreads.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 120/115P x 150/155C iron condor	Dealer short-gamma can cause fast wing breaches; wide IV increases required credit.
Calendar / Diagonal (reverse calendar)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 130C (IV 64.5%), buy 2026-04-17 130C (IV 56.5%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated higher-IV leg)	Short longer-dated IV exposes you to term-structure move and requires active roll management; front-week gamma can blow through if spot gaps.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-03-19 130C, sell 2026-05-15 150C (covered call + long LEAP)	Complex roll risk and requires capital; May short leg sits at call OI wall.

Top Plays

Sell 125/120 put spread (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-17 125/120 put spread

Defined-risk short put spread collects premium with support at EM $121.79 and put OI concentration at $120; benefits from dealer short-gamma pushing spot lower but limited downside to 120 where flip occurs.

Credit: $0.40-$0.65

Max loss: $4.60

BE: $124.60

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit if spread falls to 30% of premium; cut at break below $121.79 or IV spike >+8 pts.

Traders comfortable with defined downside and margin for 30–45 DTE core or weekly tactical.

Buy 130/125 bear put spread (directional)

Buy 2026-04-17 130/125 put spread

Long, defined-bearish play sized into high IV; benefits from immediate downside and is protected by 125 floor; cheaper than outright puts and limited loss.

Debit: $2.75-$3.25

Max loss: $3.25

BE: $127.25

Mgmt: Take 50% profit if price reaches midpoint between strikes (~127.5); cut at close >$134 or IV crush post-04/10.

Traders expecting a near-term decline into EM lower bound or wanting defined-risk short-dated directional exposure.

Reverse calendar 130 (30–45 DTE vol arb)

Sell 2026-05-15 130C, buy 2026-04-17 130C (reverse calendar)

Exploits term-structure kink by selling higher-IV May (64.5%) and buying lower-IV Apr (56.5%) for ~8.0 vol-pt edge; benefits if spot stays near current level and front-week decays faster.

Credit: $0.50-$1.10

Max loss: N/A

BE: Requires active management — risk if May IV rises relative to Apr; treat as vega play not fixed-loss.

Mgmt: Take profit on front-week decay (30–50% of max) or roll short May up if spot >133; cut if May IV compresses to front IV.

Vol-arb traders and those wanting multi-week exposure with limited directional bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $125 and holds 30 min above $125 → Sell 2026-04-17 125/120 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $135 and 04/17 135C IV >60% with heavy sell-side flow → Buy 2026-04-17 130/125 bear put spread to play mean-reversion into 135 resistance

IFIf front-week IV (04/10) drops >6 vol pts while 05/15 IV stays >=64.5% → Initiate reverse calendar: sell 2026-05-15 130C, buy 2026-04-17 130C

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot closes below $121.79 on daily basis → Roll down short put spread strikes by 5 points or convert to long put spread (buy 120/115) to maintain defined risk

ADJIf spot trades above $145 and 150C OI increases >5% intraday → Tighten short-delta or buy call protection (buy 2026-05-15 150C) if short premium exposure exists

Exit Triggers

EXITIf IV spikes +10 pts day-over-day or front-week (04/10) realized vol >80% → Exit all short-premium positions immediately (close put spreads, condors)

EXITIf a short 125/120 put spread reaches 60% of max profit → Close position to capture gains

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer short-gamma and elevated IV create multi-week trending risk — favor defined-risk bearish spreads (sell 125/120 put spread) and term-structure plays (sell 05/15 130C, buy 04/17 130C reverse calendar). Invalidation: sustained move and close above $145 (max-pain) with call OI pick-up; regime favors defined short-dated bearish spreads and reverse calendar vol-arb for carry.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.