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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $146.39EOD only

Max Pain

$139.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.60

5.2% from close

Price Gap

-7.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-mild-bear thesis: spot sits above a concentrated max-pain cluster at $140 and dealers show net positive GEX (+$55M) and DEX (+86M shares), producing pinning into the next expiries; expect price to gravitate toward the $140–150 pin zone over the next two weeks, but elevated IV and mixed flow reduce conviction for a strong trend breakout.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5; +1 for dealer GEX pinning; -1 for mixed/contradictory flow; -0.5 for spot distance; +0.5 for VIX ~19

Supports: Dealer positioning (GEX/DEX), concentrated put OI at $140, elevated short-dated IV
Conflicts: Mixed orderflow, spot 4.2% above MP, gamma flip sits well below spot at ~$120

📌Max pain cluster at $140 across multiple expiries

🧭Dealer GEX +$55M and +86M DEX imply pinning pressure into expiries

⚠️Gamma flip ~ $120 — sharp move below risks dealer buying exhaustion

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV vs typical; short-dated vols elevated around expiries (VIX ~19 supports richer IV)

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — positive dealer GEX and concentrated OI near $140 creating pin risk

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — premium flow inconsistent with GEX, some buying and some selling; net ambiguous

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot sits above max-pain $140 cluster, implying downside magnet but current spot friction from elevated IV

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Repeated max-pain pins across sequential expiries plus dealer positioning suggest multi-week pin tendency

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$128.04$163.74

Concentrated $140 OI across expiries and dealer GEX support pinning; break <140 or >155 would invalidate

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $140 (2026-04-24); $140 (2026-05-01); $140 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails:

Support: $140.00 · $128.04

Resistance: $150.00 · $155.00 · $163.74

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,963 (17.7% below spot)

Structural: Support: 140.0, 128.04; Resistance: 150.0, 155.0, 163.74; Max-pain pins: $140 (4/24, 5/1, 5/8); Gamma flip ~120

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+55.1M

DEX: +86.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,963 (17.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$55.1M; DEX +86.0M shares; gamma flip ~ $120 (put OI concentration 23,963 ≈17.7% below spot)

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich relative to broader VIX-backed market and sector — elevates premium for sellers but increases tail-risk cost for naked exposure.

Term structure: Front-months are kinked/higher around the expiries with clear event-dated pin pressure at sequential weekly expiries.

Skew: Put-heavy skew and concentrated OI at $140 — opportunity to structure defined-risk credit spreads into pin (sell premium) while protecting against gap risks.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium large negative (-95.5M): overall net selling/credit bias driven by heavy sell-side flow; P/C volume <1 with OI tilt to puts — isolated buy prints exist but selling dominates.

Directional prints: 48.6 put 144 OTM 2026-04-24 — Very high v/oi (10.8k vol vs 868 OI). Trade-signals ambiguous but context and net premium favor sell-to-open (put selling or spreads) rather than one-sided buy. 49.4 call 147 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large volume (25.6k) vs OI 6.4k. Could be call buying or call selling into size; given net selling bias, preferred read is dealer sell/structured flow (net bearish pressure). 53.9 call 167.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — High v/oi (8.8k vs 754 OI). Likely speculative activity but overall tape and net premium point to sell-side/short-gamma positions rather than pure buyer accumulation.

Unusual: 68.8 put 133 OTM 2026-05-08 — Elevated IV and v/oi — notable protection demand or expensive tail hedges; flagged as unusual. 66.3 put 145 OTM 2026-05-08 — High IV and flow (v/oi) — likely protective positioning or one-off directional activity; flagged as unusual.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected positive catalyst lifting price above 155 and breaking pin

!Large sell flow or gap below $128 triggering gamma flip and rapid downside

!VIX spike raising short-dated IV and repricing option hedges

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-08 $155.00/$160.00 call spread Why now: Neutral-to-mild-bear / pinning into next expiries with dealer positive GEX/DEX and heavy put tilt makes defined-risk call sale efficient; elevated IV helps collect premium.	Unexpected rally above short strike (positive catalyst) or IV spike widening hedges.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $140.00/$120.00 put wing and $160.00/$180.00 call wing Why now: Neutral-to-mild-bear regime, dealers GEX/DEX and concentrated max-pain favor range-bound pinning; sell premium with defined wings to collect elevated IV.	IV spike or gap through wings causing loss before decay.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-08 $145.00/$135.00 put spread Why now: Flow shows heavy sell-side premium and pin toward 140–150; sell short-dated puts for credit with protection lower to limit loss.	Rapid downside gap or gamma flip below ~128 causing spike in losses.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-08 $155.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $180.00 call Why now: Short-dated IV elevated and May expiries cluster around pin; calendar captures term-structure and reduces naked upside risk while profiting from near-term decay.	Post-earnings or catalyst spike above short strike lifts short leg; back-month not enough to cover rapid large move.

Top Plays

Short May 155/160 call spread

Sell 2026-05-08 $155.00/$160.00 call spread

Sell May 8 155/160 call spread to harvest front-month decay and benefit from pinning while limiting upside risk.

Why this play: Neutral-to-mild-bear trade: May 8 expiry skew shows 30–35% IV with front-month IV 15% richer vs. June, 0.20–0.30 delta on short 155 aligns with dealer pin zones around 150–155.

Credit: $1.33-$1.62

Max loss: $3.38

BE: $156.62

Mgmt: Close/roll if spot >150, buy back at breach >155, or if IV collapses >10 vols; consider roll up if premium widens.

Traders wanting defined-risk bearish premium collection over ~2 weeks.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF PLTR ≤150 for 2 consecutive sessions before 2026-05-08 → THEN sell 2026-05-08 155/160 call spread; entry target credit $1.33–1.62; max 3 contracts; cut losses if mark ≥25% of max loss

IFIF PLTR is 140–150 on or before 2026-05-15 → THEN open 2026-05-15 iron condor: sell 140/120 put wing and sell 160/180 call wing; entry credit target $7.41–9.05; max 2 contracts; stop if position loss ≥30% of collected credit

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot ≥155 (breach) before May expiry → THEN buy back short 155/160 calls or roll up one strike to 160/165 for net ≤$0.20 debit; if roll unavailable, close to limit further risk; one roll max per position

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot ≤128 or sustained breakdown to ~120 (gamma risk) → THEN close all short-credit bearish positions immediately to limit further downside; realize losses per predefined max loss limits

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-mild-bear: primary bias is capped upside into expiries; prefer defined-risk short call spreads or iron condors sized to fixed limits (max 3/2 contracts) with explicit stop-losses (25–30% of max loss/credit) and one-roll-only on calls.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.