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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $128.06EOD only
Max Pain
$140.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.12
6.3% from close
Price Gap
+11.94
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
38
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.04
Balanced positioning
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 10, 2026 close
PLTR Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with downside skew but short-term pin risk up to $150; Confidence: 6.5/10. Primary drivers: negative total GEX -$34.1M (trending gamma), heavy call OI wall at $150-$160 and DEX +83.4M shares indicating dealer delta exposure; supporting signals include net premium outflow -$412.9M and avg IV 62.6% (rich). Conflicts: max pain slightly above spot ($147→$145 trend) and sizable GEX pin concentrations at $150/$147 that can magnet price near-term.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 6.5 from pre-compute; no imminent earnings before 2026-05-04 to change score; negative GEX and large net premium outflow increase directional risk so score stands.
Supports: GEX concentrated pin at $150 (+$7.8M) and $147 (+$2.0M); call OI wall $150-$160; high ATM IV 62.6% with net premium -$412.9M (buying calls/put selling).
Conflicts: Spot is 4.2% below nearest MP $147 and MP trend falling (147→145) which creates contra magnet; EM bounds widen to $131-$150 next week.
📉Negative GEX -$34.1M → dealers short gamma; favors trends and fast moves
📈Large call OI cluster at $150-$155 ($150 OI 25,515; $155 OI 21,586) creates asymmetric upside resistance/pinch
⚖️Avg IV 62.6% with near-term IV term kink (2d 62.5% → 9d 53.7%) — front-loaded event vol

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High volatility: ATM IV 62.6% with 2d IV 62.5% and 9d 53.7% — front-loaded/high near-term vol; costly to buy premium short-term but richer at front month.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: Total GEX -$34.1M and near-spot negative gamma concentration implies dealers will accelerate moves rather than pin; gamma flip ~ $120 is deep below spot so limited dealer support on big drops.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: Net premium negative -$412.9M and P/C vol 0.70 indicate more call buying and/or put selling, but P/C OI 1.05 shows put OI still meaningful — directional skew to upside buyers but structural dealer short-gamma amplifies moves.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot $140.76 sits below near-term MP $147 (2d MP $147) so mechanical pin could pull price up into $145-$150 band, but MP trend falling suggests weak long-term magnet.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX sign (negative) and MP trend persist across multiple expirations (MP 147→145→150 across weeks) and IV term structure shows elevated front vol then sustained elevated 30–60d IV (60–62%), supporting 30–45 DTE trades with tactical weeklies for pin expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$135.56$145.96
Pin/GEX concentrations at $147/$150 and EM upper guard $145.96; break below $135.56 would flip bias.
Next 1 week
$131.28$150.23
MP $145 and call OI wall $150 resist upside; sustained buying or negative news needed to breach $150.
Next 2 weeks
$128.41$153.11
Negative GEX implies a move >2% will accelerate; breach of $153.11 or $128.41 confirms trend.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $147 (2026-04-10); $145 (2026-04-17); $150 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 2d $135.56/$145.96; 1w $131.28/$150.23
Support: $135.00 · $130.00 · $120.00
Resistance: $150.00 · $155.00 · $160.00
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,562 (14.7% below spot)
Structural: Structural call OI wall $150–$160 creates overhead cap; long-term put floor $100–$130 supports low-130s as deep support and gamma flip near $120 marks dealer support exhaustion.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-34.1M

DEX: +83.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,562 (14.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term NTM: large negative GEX aggregate (-$34.1M) with localized positive small GEX at $150/$147 but overall dealer short-gamma behavior — if spot falls 2% (~$137.95) dealers increase short-delta hedges accelerating downside; if spot rises 2% (~$143.58) dealers will sell into strength but pin concentrations at $147–$150 may blunt move and create temporary magnet.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 62.6% (stock-specific); higher than broad market VIX (not provided) — IV rich, especially front 2d at 62.5%.

Term structure: Front-loaded sharp drop from 2d 62.5% → 9d 53.7% then re-elevates into 30–45d ~60–62% (kink around 2026-05-08 30d at 62.3%) indicating event or supply-driven mid-term vol.

Skew: Notable skew: cheap short-dated 9d IV ~53.7% vs 2d 62.5% and 30d 62.3% — calendar/diagonal selling near 9d expiry captures vol-pt differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium flow -$412.9M (net buyers of calls / sellers of puts), P/C vol 0.70 indicates bullish buying pressure but P/C OI 1.05 shows material put OI on books.

Directional prints: 53.2 call 144 OTM 2026-04-17 — 144C exp 4/17 vol 2,986 OI 192 (15.6x) — could be buy-to-open calls (bullish) or sell-to-open hedges; consistent with net call flow so likely buys. 63.7 call 141 OTM 2026-04-10 — 141C exp 4/10 vol 1,680 OI 117 (14.4x) — tactical short-dated call activity into pin; more likely buyers ahead of expiry given negative net premium.

Unusual: 71.1 put 320 ITM 2026-06-18 — PLTR260618P00320000 huge vol print 12,000 vols vs OI 700 — speculative/hedge tail-ticket, not immediate gamma impact but signals institutional tail hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~ $120 — if breached dealers stop providing absorption and moves accelerate
!Concentrated call OI $150–$160 could produce pin/resistance and create short-squeeze volatility around expiries (4/10, 4/17)
!Front-loaded IV: 2d IV 62.5% then 9d 53.7% creates event risk and fast vol contraction after pin expiry
!Net premium -$412.9M means asymmetry: aggressive call buyers can blow past resistance and cause dealer gamma whirlpool

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-WeakBuy shares at marketHigh capital, negative GEX amplifies downside moves
Short stockModerateShort shares or use put protectionUnlimited if upside into $150–$160 OI wall squeezes
Covered callModerateBuy stock + sell 2026-04-24 150 callCapped upside at strong call OI $150; downside amplified if breaks < $135
Cash-secured putModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-17 135 put cash-securedAssignment into 130s if heavy gap down; gamma flip below $120
Long calls (directional)Moderate-WeakBuy 2026-04-17 150 callExpensive IV; needs >$150 quickly to justify premium
Long puts / bear put spreadModerateBuy 2026-04-17 140/130 put spreadTime decay and front IV drop post-expiry; limited by width
Iron condorModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-17 135/130 put spread + sell 2026-04-17 150/155 call spreadVIX spike or directional break beyond EM bounds will bust wings
Calendar / diagonal (sell higher-IV leg)Moderate-StrongSell 2026-04-17 ATM (144–146) calls, buy 2026-05-22 same strikes (sell higher-IV leg)Front IV collapse after pin reduces premium capture; requires stable spot near strikes
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerateBuy 2026-12-18 120 LEAP, sell 2026-04-17 145 call (covered conversion)Commitment to long-term directional exposure; roll risk if pin holds near 145

Top Plays

#1
Short-dated iron condor (tactical)
Sell 2026-04-17 135/130 put spread + sell 2026-04-17 150/155 call spread
Sells premium into elevated IV and captures pin/EM band; negative GEX favors directional gamma moves but MP and call OI provide resistance near 150.
Credit: $0.85-$1.50
Max loss: 4.15
BE: Lower breakeven 134.15 / Upper 151.50
Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit at first, cut if spot breaches 152.5 or VIX spikes >10% intraday.
Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection ahead of pin expiry
#2
30–45 DTE calendar/diagonal (vol capture)
Sell 2026-04-17 144–146 call(s) (higher IV front) and buy 2026-05-22 same strikes
Front IV 53.7% vs 44–56% longer-dated creates vol-pt edge selling near-dated calls while owning further-dated exposure; benefits if pin holds and front vol collapses.
Credit: $0.60-$1.40
Max loss: Variable (long leg debit minus short credit)
Mgmt: Close short leg after 50% decay or if spot >150; roll short leg wider if delta >0.35.
Vol sellers who want multi-week exposure with defined risk
#3
Cash-secured put at EM lower guard (income)
Sell 2026-04-17 135 put cash-secured
Collects rich front premium while targeting entry near lower EM $135.56; supported by put floor $130 and large long-term put OI as structural support.
Credit: $1.00-$1.30
Max loss: $134.00
BE: $134.00
Mgmt: Buy back at 60% of max profit or if spot <131.28 (next-week EM lower bound).
Accounts willing to own stock at ~135

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $145 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 150/155 call spread and 135/130 put spread (iron condor) as defined above.
IFIf spot drops to $135.56 (2d EM lower) → Sell 2026-04-17 135 put cash-secured.
IFIf spot trades $144–$146 with front IV >59% → Sell 2026-04-17 144–146 calls and buy 2026-05-22 same strikes (calendar/diagonal).
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot >150 and open interest flow shows rising call buys at $150–$155 → Widen short call spreads by 5 points or roll to 2026-04-24 expirations.
ADJIf spot <131.28 (1w EM lower) → Convert short put positions to long-put spreads (buy 130 put) to cap downside.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf VIX-equivalent spike causes front IV +10 vol-pts intraday or spot breaches $153.11 → Close all short premium positions immediately.
EXITIf short premium reaches 50–70% of max profit → Take profits on short premium leg(s).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer short-gamma and net call buying create asymmetry — sell premium into elevated front IV targeting the pin at $147–$150 while protecting against downside acceleration below $131–$135; invalidation: sustained break above $153.11 (bull breakout) or below $128.41 (bear structural). Recommended top plays: short-dated iron condor (best for defined-risk premium sellers), 30–45 DTE calendar/diagonal (vol capture across term), and cash-secured 135 put (buy-the-dip entry).

Read the Directional analysis for PLTR for 2026-04-08. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.