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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $135.70EOD only

Max Pain

$135.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.38

4.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.70

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.97

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a strong pin to $135 (MP) and upside caps at the $140–$150 call walls; Confidence: 6.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX (+$61.6M) concentrated at $140/$137/$138 and flat MP at $135; conflicts: net premium negative (-$66.4M) and high avg IV (62.8%) suggesting bought premium / directional hedges.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5 retained — positive GEX pinning and MP alignment give mean-reversion edge; negative net premium and elevated IV raise tail/continuation risk but do not invalidate pin in short horizon.

Supports: GEX +$18.7M at $140, +$12.5M at $137, MP pinned at $135 across expirations
Conflicts: Net premium -$66.4M (institutional buying); Avg IV 62.8% (rich vs VIX 18.4) and put prints into expiries

📍Max pain pinned at $135 across 4/17–5/01 — strong short-term magnet

🧲GEX concentrated +$61.6M with large NTM call walls at $140/$150 — dealers short gamma near spot

⚠️Net premium -$66.4M and avg IV 62.8% indicate institutional net buying of protection/long vol

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV (Avg IV 62.8%) with ATM term showing a front-week IV ~47.6% then a spike into 5/8–5/29 (63.9%->58.6%) — options are rich in the mid-term, favor defined risk sells near pin but expect expensive hedges.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: Total GEX +$61.6M with major concentrations at $140 (+$18.7M), $137 (+$12.5M), $138 (+$9.4M) — this creates a magnet toward $135–$140 and dealer delta/gamma hedging that stabilizes around MP.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: P/C Vol 0.49 and P/C OI 0.97 with Net Premium -$66.4M (institutions net buying premium) — tactical selling of premium is OK short-term but beware directional buying pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $135.70 is At MP $135 (0.52% above) which supports short-term mean reversion to $135; repeated MP across expirations signals structural pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP is persistent across multiple expirations (4/17–5/29) and GEX sign and concentration remain consistent across near expiries; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$130.32$141.07

Break below gamma flip ~$130 (pre-computed) would remove dealer pinning and open downside to $126.55 EM 1wk lower bound.

Next 1 week

$126.55$144.85

Sustained move >$141.07 (2d EM) with heavy call fills ($140 strike OI) would push toward $144.85 1w upper bound.

Next 2 weeks

$123.97$147.42

Close >$150 call-wall ($150–$160 structural) needed to invalidate cap and trigger trend continuation.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $135 (2026-04-17); $135 (2026-04-24); $135 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $130.32/$141.07; 1w $126.55/$144.85

Support: $135.00 · $132.00 · $130.00

Resistance: $140.00 · $145.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$130.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,017 (4.2% below spot)

Structural: Structural call wall $150–$160 caps rally; put floor $100–$120 underpins multi-month downside; these are long-term layers for position sizing and tail protection.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+61.6M

DEX: +95.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$130 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,017 (4.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $137/$138/$140; dealers will buy spot on dips toward $130 and sell into rallies above $140 — if spot moves -2% (~$132.99) dealer hedges will flip to buys and slow decline; +2% (~$138.41) will trigger dealer sells into strength but big GEX at $140 may re-pin there.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 62.8% vs VIX 18.36 — PLTR vol is rich relative to index and reflects stock-specific risk and net premium buying.

Term structure: Front-week IV 47.6% rising to 63.9% in 24d (5/08) then easing — mid-term convexity shows event or campaign hedging around early May (earnings 5/04 possibly priced into near-mid term).

Skew: Heavy call-side flow at $140/$150; put-heavy OI at $130 provides a vol-arbitrage: sell elevated mid-term IV (e.g., 5/08 ATM ~63.9%) via defined-risk structures and buy near-dated vega where cheaper (3d–10d ~47–49%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$66.4M (institutions net buyers of premium/vol). Calls account for large premium at $140/$150/$135 strikes (see Top Premium Flow).

Directional prints: 50.3 call 137 OTM 2026-05-01 — Large 5,140 vol vs OI 185 (27.8x) — could be directional speculative buys or long-term caller hedges; given net premium negative, interpretation leans to bought calls (bullish). 47.4 put 137 ITM 2026-04-17 — 11,311 vol vs OI 775 (14.6x) — heavy short-dated put activity into expiry, likely hedging/rolls; given mixed flow, could be block sells of deep protection or rolling; interpretation leans toward protective buying (bearish).

Unusual: 50.3 call 137 OTM 2026-05-01 — Notable long-dated call print (5,140 vol) at $137 — institutional bullish or hedge; aligns with large call OI at $140/$150.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$130 (pre-computed) would remove pin and accelerate downside into $126.55–$123.97 EMs.

!Large net premium -$66.4M signals institutional buying of protection/long vol — sudden downside buys could overwhelm dealer short-gamma.

!Mid-May IV spike (5/08 ATM 63.9%) and upcoming earnings ~2026-05-04 may reprice mid-term tail risk.

!Breakout above structural $150–$160 call wall would negate mean-reversion and produce fast trend higher.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy PLTR cash at $135.70	High IV and net premium buying raises pullback risk; outright long is exposed to ATM vol reprice.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — dealer pinning and positive GEX favor mean reversion, but net long institutional flow creates asymmetric risk	Large institutional long-premium can create squeezes.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + Sell 2026-04-24 $140 call	Capped upside at $140; assignment risk into MP; premium helps against IV but earnings risk around 5/04.
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $130/$125 put spread	Gamma flip ~$130; downside above $125 puts max loss; good income near put OI floor.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-29 $150 call	High mid-term IV and expensive premium; better as directional asymmetric play if bullish to $150.
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-17 $135/$130 bear put spread	Costs are elevated but offers defined directional hedge against pin break below gamma flip.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $132/$128 put fly x $140/$145 call fly (structure: sell 132/128 put spread & sell 140/145 call spread)	Violations beyond EM bounds (below $126.55 or above $144.85) produce assignment/large loss; favorable given GEX pin and VIX <22.
Calendar / diagonal (sell higher-IV leg)	Moderate	Sell near-term 2026-04-17 ATM call (e.g., $136) / buy 2026-05-29 $136 call — sell higher near-term IV ~47.6 buy longer 45d IV ~58.6 (sell lower IV? check term)	Term structure has mid-term IV spike; follow rule: sell the higher-IV leg; structure depends on actual IV differential at fill.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock + Sell 2026-05-29 $150 call (covered with longer-dated hedge)	Caps upside; longer-dated time reduces gamma; good for buy-and-collect given pin and call wall.
Protective collar	Moderate	Long stock + buy 2026-05-29 $130 put + sell 2026-05-29 $150 call	Costly net IV but defines downside to $130 while capping upside at $150; useful around earnings.

Top Plays

Short-dated put spread (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-17 $135/$130 put spread

Edges off persistent MP at $135 and heavy put OI at $130; dealers' positive GEX supports mean reversion into expiry.

Credit: $1.40-$1.60

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $133.60

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit if spread hits 60% of width; cut if spot <$130 or IV jumps >10 vol-pts.

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection into weekly expiry

Multi-week iron condor (primary)

Sell 2026-04-24 $132/$128 put spread and sell 2026-04-24 $140/$145 call spread

Capitalizes on pin to $135, positive GEX and narrow 1-week EM; wings set near EM guardrails and OI clusters.

Credit: $1.00-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $132 - credit and $140 + credit

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit on collected credit; hedge or leg-roll if spot approaches $130 or $145 or IV jumps >8 vol-pts.

Accounts that want income with 30–45 DTE bias (prefer 4/24 expir)

Multi-week put spread (structural income)

Sell 2026-05-29 $130/$125 put spread

Uses persistent MP and heavy $130 put OI to sell premium with 30+ DTE cushion; time reduces gamma and benefits from mid-term IV mean reversion.

Credit: $2.20-$2.80

Max loss: $2.20

BE: $127.80

Mgmt: Take 50% profit if spread declines to half width value; unwind if spot <$130 and IV >+10 vol-pts or unexpected large bearish flow.

Traders wanting multi-week defined-risk income and willing to hold through earnings

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $135 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 $135/$130 put spread

IFIf spot rebounds and prints >$138.50 (near +2% intraday) with call volume picking up at $140 → Sell 2026-04-24 $140/$145 call spread as part of iron condor

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $132 (≈ -2.8%) → Roll 2026-04-17 sold puts down to 2026-04-24 $130/$125 or hedge with long 2026-05-29 $130 puts

ADJIf IV for 5/08 ATM >63% and mid-term skew steepens by >6 vol-pts vs front week → Prefer calendars/diagonals: sell higher-IV mid-term calls and buy cheaper front-week calls at same strike (follow sell-higher-IV rule) e.g., sell 5/08 $136, buy 4/17 $136

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot <$130 (gamma flip) or 4/17 expiry pins < $130 → Close all short put spreads and short premium positions immediately

EXITIf collected iron condor credit reaches 60–75% of target or spot outside EM bounds ($126.55–$144.85) → Take profits and tighten wings / buy protection

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-premium/range trades around the $135 pin with multi-week bias; invalidation: sustained close below gamma flip ~$130. Top plays: 4/17 $135/$130 put spread (tactical), 4/24 iron condor $132/$128 x $140/$145 (primary multi-week), 5/29 $130/$125 put spread (30+ DTE income). Regime favors defined-risk premium selling near MP; use strict IV and stop rules due to net premium buying and elevated avg IV.

Read the Directional analysis for PLTR for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.