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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $142.76EOD only

Max Pain

$136.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.14

2.2% from close

Price Gap

-6.76

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: strong dealer positive gamma and net bullish flow supporting continued upside toward 150–155 in the week ahead; pinning risk near 136–140 may limit downside and concentrate moves into expiries.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Precomputed: +GEX/flow alignment, positive GEX magnitude, VIX moderate; offset by spot ~7.6% above most painful pins.

Supports: Large dealer positive gamma, bullish premium flow, price > short-term max pain levels
Conflicts: Spot sits ~7.6% above nearest max-pain; gamma flip far below (~$120) leaves structural tail risk

📈Dealer GEX +$186.7M with +102.7M shares -> short-term upside bias

📌Max-pain cluster at $136–140 creates pinning/downside magnet into expiries

⚠️Gamma flip near $120 far below spot — sharp drops could accelerate

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV vs typical; elevated into expiries sustaining option-driven moves

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — dealer positive gamma concentrated above puts creating pin/downside magnet at listed max-pain

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium and call-heavy flow supporting lifts and dealer delta buys

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max-pain cluster (7.6%); risks of mean reversion toward $136–140 on expiry flows

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Pinning and flow effects tied to near-term expiries and concentrated OI levels

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$138.79$153.99

Dealer gamma and bullish flow favor runs to resistance unless expiry pinning pulls price toward $136–140

Next 2 weeks

$135.41$157.36

Extended time allows expiry pinning or mean reversion; monitor gamma flip at ~120

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $136 (2026-04-17); $139 (2026-04-24); $140 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 1w $138.79/$153.99

Support: $140.00 · $136.00 · $135.41

Resistance: $150.00 · $155.00 · $157.36

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,180 (18.0% below spot)

Structural: $136/$139/$140 max-pain pins; 1w guardrails $138.79/$153.99; support 140/136/135.41; resistance 150/155/157.36; gamma flip ~120

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+186.7M

DEX: +102.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,180 (18.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$186.7M; DEX +102.7M shares; gamma flip ~120 (put OI concentration 23,180, ~18% below spot)

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17 — elevated stock-specific vol makes selling premium expensive; directional buys costlier but receive pinning tail protection from dealer flow.

Term structure: Front-end skewed/higher into near expiries with event kinks at weekly expiries (1w/2w), then flattens.

Skew: Put concentration below spot creates elevated bid for downside vol; consider selling near-dated premium with strict risk control or buying protection beyond gamma-flip (~120).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium paid to market ~$2.21M; volume skew toward calls, with heavy near‑dated put buying (net paid protection).

Directional prints: 5 put 146 OTM 2026-04-17 — 17,470 vol into 1,541 OI — large near‑dated put buys (protection/speculation), consistent with net premium paid. 8.9 put 147 ITM 2026-04-17 — 13,104 vol vs 919 OI — concentrated short‑dated put buying likely for downside hedging or directional long put exposure. 207 put 180 ITM 2026-04-17 — 1,120 vol into 133 OI with extreme IV — tail protection buys or speculative deep‑OTM put purchases.

Unusual: 43.9 put 146 OTM 2026-04-24 — 2,917 vol vs 124 OI (vol/oi 23.5) — aggressive directional put buys into low OI. 46.5 call 162.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — 5,188 vol vs 606 OI — notable call buying supporting bullish exposure. 118.8 put 85 OTM 2026-04-24 — 9,148 vol vs 500 OI with large IV — far‑OTM put buying for tail hedging or speculative downside exposure.

Risks & Catalysts

!Expiry pinning drives mean reversion to $136–140

!Sharp gap down past gamma flip (~120) could accelerate selling

!IV spikes on news make premium-selling costly

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-15 $150.00/$155.00 call spread Why now: Bullish dealer gamma and call flow; defined risk keeps drawdowns manageable around pin band.	IV may spike on news, compressing entry or widening cost.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $145.00/$140.00 put spread Why now: Near-term pin and bullish flow make short puts attractive; defined wing limits risk if gap down.	Large gap down past ~120 accelerates losses despite defined wings.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $145.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish-to-neutral view with concentrated upside; prefer later expiry to wait through event.	IV spike raises short premium obligations; assignment risk if stock gaps below strike.
Call calendar	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $155.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $155.00 call Why now: Finance back-month upside with near-term call sales into elevated short-dated IV; aligns with bullish flow and GEX support.	Short near-term calls can be pin/assignment sensitive and IV front-loading may move unfavorably.

Top Plays

Defined bull call spread (May 15 $150/$155)

Buy 2026-05-15 $150.00/$155.00 call spread

Directional bullish for move toward 150–155 into expiry; limited cost and defined loss if pin holds near 136–140.

Why this play: Directly captures near-term bullish gamma and call flow with capped risk around pin band.

Debit: $1.73-$2.12

Max loss: $2.12

BE: $152.12

Mgmt: Enter inside quoted range; trim or roll if price >155 or IV spikes; close if trade breaches invalidation 140.

Traders wanting event exposure with defined risk and leverage.

Short put spread (May 15 $145/$140)

Sell 2026-05-15 $145.00/$140.00 put spread

Yield play betting pinning/quiet upside near 136–140; faster decay on near-dated premium.

Why this play: Collects premium while leaning into expiry pinning; defined wing limits gap risk.

Credit: $2.00-$2.45

Max loss: $2.55

BE: $142.55

Mgmt: Sell inside range; buy back if price <140 or IV surges; manage position size versus capital at risk.

Income-focused traders comfortable with assigned stock at ~145.

Call calendar (sell May15 / buy Jun18 $155)

Sell 2026-05-15 $155.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $155.00 call

Neutral-to-bullish; benefits if front month decays and stock stays near/above strikes into sell leg expiry.

Why this play: Expresses back-month upside while harvesting near-term elevated IV and dealer gamma.

Debit: $2.97-$3.63

Max loss: $3.63

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Establish in range; consider rolling front leg or closing if underlying moves sharply or IV collapses.

Traders wanting theta capture with longer directional exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF PLTR trades >=150 and <=155 AND front-month IV <=1.15*June IV AND front-month IV 5-day change <=+20% → THEN buy May15 150/155 bull call spread sized so max loss ≤$500 (e.g., 1 contract ≈ $500 max loss); use limit buy at mid+1.0¢ or better, cancel if ask>limit; profit take at 50% and 75% of max spread value, cut at 30% of max loss

IFIF PLTR trades >=140 and <=145 AND front-month IV 5-day change <=+20% → THEN sell May15 145/140 put credit spread sized so max loss ≤$500; place limit sell at 0.5–0.7×(ask-mid) above mid to capture premium; close at 50% premium decay or if spread mark moves to 60% of max loss

IFIF PLTR near 155 AND front-month IV >=1.15*June IV → THEN establish May15 sell / Jun18 buy 155 call calendar (front short 1 contract) to collect front premium; size such that net margin ≤$1,000; use front-month limit sell at mid or better

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF underlying >155 OR a position reaches ≥50% of its profit target → THEN trim 50% of contracts of the winning leg (round down), roll front-month call up one strike for calendar, and lock remaining profit by converting one contract to a defined-risk spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF PLTR <140 OR front-month IV 5-day change >+20% OR gap below 120 → THEN priority exits: 1) close short spreads/calendars immediately; 2) if filled fast, reduce size by 50% then buy protective puts (one-lot protective 140 put or nearest delta ~0.30) sized = 50% of contracts closed; final cut if price <120

Tactical Summary

Bullish into May with defined-risk preference. Max per-trade loss target $500, margin cap $1,000 for calendars. Use numeric IV spike = 5-day change >+20% and front-month vs next-month ratio >1.15. Hedge priority: reduce size 50% then buy protective puts (50% of remaining exposure). Exit on PLTR<140 or IV shock.

Read the Directional analysis for PLTR for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.