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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $156.54EOD only

Max Pain

$136.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.38

6.0% from close

Price Gap

-20.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.93

Balanced positioning

Consensus

9.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with upside magnet to $135 (max pain) while dealers pin around $132–$137; Confidence: 6.0/10 (base). Primary supports: concentrated positive GEX +$21.9M with NTM GEX stacks at $132/$133/$135 and flat MP at $135; conflict: heavy net premium sell flow (Net Premium -$71.3M) and elevated ATM IV (avg IV 63.6%) that can fuel sharp moves if flow flips.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6.0/10 maintained: +21.9M GEX pinning and MP at $135 support pin thesis; -71.3M net premium and mixed flow reduce conviction; VIX 19.12 is neutral.

Supports: NTM GEX clusters at $132/$133/$135; MP anchored at $135 across expirations; put OI concentration / gamma flip near $120 provides lower bound.
Conflicts: Net premium -$71.3M and avg IV 63.6% — selling premium currently funded by institutions; P/C Volume 0.44 shows call-heavy flow on notable strikes.

📌Max pain pinned at $135 across expirations — a persistent magnet given GEX stacks at $132–$137.

🧲Large positive GEX +$21.9M concentrated: dealers will hedge into moves, favoring mean-reversion.

⚠️Net premium -$71.3M and avg IV 63.6% — selling premium currently funded by institutions; a VIX uptick could quickly punish short premium.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: ATM IV ~50–64% short-dated, avg IV 63.6% vs VIX 19.12 — options are rich particularly 25–46d where IV steps up (63.3% at 25d).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX +$21.9M with concentrated NTM GEX at $132 ( +$5.4M), $133 (+$4.5M), $135 (+$5.3M) and $137 (+$8.0M) — dealers likely to delta-hedge toward those levels.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: premium prints show big call buys at $130/$132/$135 (net positive flows) while overall Net Premium is negative (-$71.3M) indicating institutional selling elsewhere; P/C vol 0.44 skewed toward calls in recent flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $132.37 is below MP $135 — creates upward pinning pressure; spot is ~1.98% below MP which aligns with dealer hedging into calls.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP stays at $135 across near expirations and GEX sign positive persistently across 2–6 week expirations; IV term structure shows elevated mid-dates (25–46d) suggesting multi-week persistence; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$120.07$144.67

NTM GEX at $132–$135 pins; a break above $137 (NTM GEX +$8.0M) opens toward $140 resistance.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $135 (2026-04-17); $135 (2026-04-24); $135 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails:

Support: $132.00 · $130.00 · $120.00

Resistance: $135.00 · $140.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,974 (9.3% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $140–$155 caps upside into multi-week rallies; put floor $100–$120 supports deep drawdowns and is the structural downside where dealer negative gamma grows significant.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+21.9M

DEX: +94.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,974 (9.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM positive gamma concentrated at $132 (+$5.4M), $133 (+$4.5M), $135 (+$5.3M) and $137 (+$8.0M) — dealers will buy into weakness and sell into strength; if spot moves -2% (~$129) dealers buy delta; if +2% (~$135) dealers sell delta but call OI at $140–$150 limits follow-through.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IVs 50.8–51.1% near-dated, rising to 63.3% at 25d; avg IV 63.6% vs VIX 19.12 implies individual stock vol priced rich relative to index — favorable for short premium if comfortable with idiosyncratic risk.

Term structure: Steep hump: front 4–18d ATM ~50–51% then a jump to 63.3% at 25d and 62.6% at 32d — suggests event or supply in the 25–46d band (good calendar/diagonal candidates).

Skew: Skew: puts (120/130) concentrated and expensive in absolute IV but calls show large OI and flow; opportunity: sell elevated 25–46d IV leg relative to front-month where appropriate.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net Premium -$71.3M (institutional selling overall) but top premium flow shows heavy call buys at $130/$132/$135 net +17.66M/+6.20M/+16.23M respectively — mixed directional signals.

Directional prints: 50.7 call 133 OTM 2026-04-24 — PLTR260424C00133000 heavy flow (GEX stack at $133): print consistent with buy-call flow or short-call hedging; given net premium negative the buy-call interpretation aligns with short stock hedges/positioning rotation. 50.3 put 132 OTM 2026-04-17 — PLTR260417P00132000 large put print near ATM (vol 5,996): could be long protection or put-sale structure; overall mixed flow favors protection bought by institutions.

Unusual: 50.4 put 133 ITM 2026-04-17 — PLTR260417P00133000 14.2x vol-to-OI (ITM put) — concentrated short-dated protection; signals dealer hedging interest at ATM into expiry.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $120 — breach would remove dealer pinning and accelerate downside liquidity drawdown.

!Max pain expiry clustering at $135 on 4/17–5/01 — expiry pin risk; short weekly premium faces early pinning moves.

!Net premium -$71.3M and elevated mid-term IV — a sudden risk-off or sector reversal (XLK weakness) could spike IV and break short-premium trades.

!Earnings 2026-05-04 (TBD) sits inside the 25–46d IV hump — calendars/diagonals require explicit earnings handling.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy PLTR stock at market ($132.37)	Exposure to sharp IV-driven selloffs beneath $120 gamma flip
Short stock	Weak	Avoid unilateral short given positive GEX and pin to $135	Dealer buying into weakness and call OI walls limit upside pressure
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 145.00 call	Call OI wall could be breached; limited upside vs earnings risk
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 125.00 put or sell 125/120 put spread	If price drops toward gamma flip ~$120; assignment risk if below 125
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 140.00 call (directional)	High mid-term IV; expensive debit if earnings disappoint
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 120/115 put spread	Costly given rich IV and positive GEX; effective only if break below gamma flip
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 125/120P x 145/150C iron condor	VIX/IV spike or directional move past wings; mid-term IV elevated but GEX supports range-bound
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 132 call, buy 2026-04-24 132 call (reverse calendar)	Selling higher-IV long-dated leg (62.6%) vs buying lower-IV front month (51.0%) exposes you to front-month gamma; must manage into earnings

Top Plays

Sell 125/120 put spread 2026-05-15

Collect elevated mid-term premium inside GEX-pinned range; supports at $130/$132 cushion and MP $135 reduce downside probability.

Credit: $0.60-$0.90

Max loss: $4.40

BE: $124.40

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot breaches $121 or IV spikes >+6 vol pts.

Defined-risk premium collectors comfortable owning shares at 125

Sell 125/120P x 145/150C iron condor 2026-05-15

Sell 125/120 put spread and sell 145/150 call spread 2026-05-15

Plays multi-week pin to $135 with positive GEX and structural call wall 140–155 capping upside; wide wings to accommodate expected move $120–$145.

Credit: $1.20-$1.80

Max loss: $8.80

BE: 125.00–(credit) / 145.00+(credit)

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; tighten or roll if spot <122 or >148 or VIX >26.

Account-level defined-risk short premium.

Reverse calendar 132 — Sell 5/15 132 call, buy 4/24 132 call

Sell 2026-05-15 132 call, buy 2026-04-24 132 call (reverse calendar)

Sell higher-IV longer-dated 5/15 ATM (ATM ~62.6%) and buy lower-IV front 4/24 ATM (ATM ~51.0%) — net vol differential +11.6 vol-pts in favor of shorting the long-dated leg, collect credit while betting on pin stability.

Credit: $0.60-$1.40

Max loss: Potential front-month gamma exposure; limited to margin/assignment risk

BE: Net credit; requires spot stability between $128–$137

Mgmt: Close or roll the sold 5/15 leg if spot moves >2% or before earnings; take 50% of credit if short leg P/L reaches target.

Traders seeking to harvest term-structure premium with defined management into earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $132.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 125/120 put spread 2026-05-15

IFIf spot rallies to $135.00 and fails to close above $137.00 within 2 sessions → Sell 145/150 call spread 2026-05-15

IFIf 25–46d ATM IV (5/15 band) > +4 vol pts vs today (ATM >66%) → Sell 2026-05-15 132 call and buy 2026-04-24 132 call (reverse calendar) to capture elevated long-dated IV

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot < $122.00 → Convert short 125/120 put spread into wider protection (buy 120 put 2026-05-15) or roll down to 120/115

ADJIf VIX >26 or ATM IV 25–46d > +8 vol pts from now → Close all short premium positions (iron condors, put spreads)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf 125/120 put spread reaches 60% of max profit → Buy back the spread to lock profit

EXITIf spot > $145.00 → Close short call spreads and reduce upside exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: positive dealer GEX and persistent max pain at $135 favor short premium and range trades over outright direction; invalidation is a clean breach below gamma flip ~$120 which would flip regime to trending down; top plays: 125/120 put spread (defined-risk short premium), 125/120–145/150 iron condor (multi-week range), and reverse calendar 5/15 sell / 4/24 buy at 132 (capture term-structure premium) — choose by risk tolerance and willingness to take assignment or manage front-month gamma.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.