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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $73.81EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry Jul 2, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.54
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings 7/16 with ~9.5% implied move. Flow net negative but call OI wall at $90-$110. Historical beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 18; override: Base5 +2flow +1spot +1VIX=9
Most important: High IV crush potential; watch $80 MP and $90 call wall.
📈Call volume on $79 7/2 signals short-term bullish bets.
📉Net negative premium and large put purchases suggest hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,663 (11.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (17 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (3d): ±$2.14 (2.9%)
  • 2026-07-10 (11d): ±$3.47 (4.7%)
  • 2026-07-17 (18d): ±$6.98 (9.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV elevated to 42%+; 18d IV ~50%.

Crush estimate: Expected 40-60% IV drop post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated; put floor $65.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available.

Directional bias: Neutral; mixed flow.

Key Levels

1$65.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $71.64/$75.92
3Max pain pins: $74 (2026-07-02); $75 (2026-07-10); $80 (2026-07-17)

Flow Highlights

Large put volume on $64 Put 7/10, 41x OI.

Bearish hedge or tail risk.

High call volume on $79 Call 7/2, 3.2x OI.

Bullish short-term speculation near max pain.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$66.00 put wing and $80.00/$82.00 call wing
Credit: $1.23-$1.51
Max loss: $2.49
Max gain: $1.51
BE: 68.49 / 81.51
Trigger: Close at 50% profit or near expiry; adjust if NFLX breaks $66 or $80.
Neutral bias, high IV crush, defined risk. Outranks put diagonal on lower directional exposure.
Outperforms: Sells put wing $70/$66 and call wing $80/$82, capturing IV crush with defined risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Put Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00 put / buy 2026-07-24 $66.00 put
Credit: $0.71-$0.86
Max loss: $0.01
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor $66.8 invalidation; roll or close if threatened.
Bearish flow and front-month IV premium (50% vs 47%) provide skew advantage.
Outperforms: Sell short-term $70 put, buy later $66 put for bearish premium capture.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush may overstate post-move decay.
!Spot near $74 resistance; failure could trigger sell-off.
!Bearish put flow suggests downside hedging.

What to Watch

?Key level $74 (max pain 7/10).
?Call OI wall $90-$110 as resistance.
?Weekly options expiration 7/2.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.