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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $81.67EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.02
2.5% from close
Price Gap
+4.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
78
High premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings in 30 days. Bullish call flow with low put/call ratios, but spot below max pain and market weak. Historical beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 7.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Heavy unusual call volume suggests upside expectations, but spot sits 4.7% below max pain and VIX at 16.
📞Unprecedented call volume on near-dated strikes - possible short squeeze play?
⚠️Spot below max pain and negative gamma zone; dealers may hedge selling into rallies.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,031 (4.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$1.77 (2.2%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$3.27 (4.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$4.09 (5.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end IV ~30-33%, back-month (post-earnings) ~42-43% showing elevated uncertainty.

Crush estimate: Estimated ~15-20% IV crush post-earnings based on historical moves.

Skew: Put/call OI ratio 0.78, slightly put-heavy OI but call volume dominates.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical average move ~4-5% vs implied moves of 2-5%.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish, with 3/5 positive moves post-earnings.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $76.96/$80.49; 1w $75.45/$82.00
3Max pain pins: $85 (2026-06-18); $83 (2026-06-26); $84 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

22k volume on 6/18 $79C vs 814 OI; 5.4k volume on 6/26 $79C vs 100 OI.

Aggressive near-term call buying suggests bullish positioning ahead of earnings.

Net premium flow shows $43.9M negative, with put premium exceeding call premium despite high call volume.

Discrepancy indicates hedging or large put selling, potentially capping upside.

Strategies

Short Strangle on NFLX
Sell 2026-07-17 $75.00 put + sell $85.00 call
Credit: $3.75-$4.59
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.59
BE: 70.41 / 89.59
Trigger: Close before earnings or manage if IV expands. Consider rolling if price approaches strikes.
Only eligible candidate. High IV ~30-33% offers premium selling opportunity with estimated 15-20% crush post-earnings. Support at $75 and resistance at $85 define range.
Outperforms: Sell a strangle to capture high IV and expected crush. Stock at $78.87, within support/resistance levels, reducing tail risk.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Market headwinds (SPY -0.6%, QQQ -1.9%) and VIX 16 could amplify moves.
!Spot $78.87 vs max pain $85 on 6/18 - potential pinning risk if stock drifts lower.

What to Watch

?Earnings on 7/16; implied moves increase through expirations.
?Key levels: support $75 (put wall), resistance $85 (call OI).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.