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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $80.34EOD only
Max Pain
$87.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.50
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+6.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
58
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX 31d to earnings; high IV with heavy put skew; resistance $85-$86, call wall $90-$120; beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Aggressive put buying $100-$114 suggests downside hedging; call wall caps upside.
⚠️Aggressive put buying $97-$114: hedging or bearish bet; put/call volume ratio 0.54.
🛡️$82 call volume 19.8k (1.8x OI); may trigger short-covering if spot holds above $80.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 69,302 (8.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (31 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$2.02 (2.5%)
  • 2026-06-26 (11d): ±$3.32 (4.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (17d): ±$4.10 (5.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end IV 30%+ ATM; term structure upward-sloping; expected moves ±2.5% to ±5%.

Crush estimate: 50%+ IV crush post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew steep; high-volume puts at $97-$114 June 18 expiry.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 60% beat rate; average move not specified.

Directional bias: Neutral; beat rate slightly positive but put flow dominant.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $79.65/$83.69
3Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-18); $83 (2026-06-26); $84 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying: $100/$105/$110/$114 strikes see vol/oi >2.

Significant hedging or bearish bets ahead of earnings.

$82 call saw 19.8k volume, 1.8x OI.

Potential short-covering or bullish speculation near support.

Strategies

ATM Straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00 put + buy $85.00 call
Debit: $7.60-$9.28
Max loss: $9.28
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 75.72 / 94.28
Trigger: Sell on crush or stop loss if IV collapses.
Captures large move with neutral bias; high IV but expected move justifies premium.
Outperforms: Long straddle at $85 strike to profit from any post-earnings move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Wide Strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put + buy $90.00 call
Debit: $2.47-$3.02
Max loss: $3.02
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 71.98 / 93.02
Trigger: Hold through earnings; exit if IV declines sharply.
Cheaper premium; benefits from put skew and call wall.
Outperforms: Buy $75 put and $90 call for outsized move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush risk if no large move.
!Heavy put concentration implies downside expectations.
!Spot below max pain $86 June 18; gamma flip near $75.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction to $84 max pain (July 2).
?Continued put volume at $100+ strikes.
?Call wall shifts at $90-$120.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.