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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $70.90EOD only
Max Pain
$75.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.23
1.7% from close
Price Gap
+4.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings 7/16, 20d out. IV elevated, expected move 9.7%. Mixed flow: net negative premium but bullish call skew. Beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Gamma pinning $73-$76, put floor $65, call wall $90-$110. IV crush post-earnings.
⚠️Heavy put activity on $74 strikes (19.7x vol/oi) indicates near-term hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,622 (11.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (20 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$2.54 (3.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$3.71 (5.0%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$7.12 (9.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping into earnings; 0dte IV 6-24%, 7dte 34-68%.

Crush estimate: 30-50% IV drop post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated for tail; far OTM calls speculative.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A

Directional bias: Slightly bullish (60% beat rate)

Key Levels

1$65.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $71.27/$76.34
3Max pain pins: $73 (2026-06-26); $74 (2026-07-02); $76 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume on $74 strike (19.7x OI) 0dte; net premium -$84M.

Hedging near max pain; OTM call buying suggests upside bets.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put wing and $80.00/$85.00 call wing
Credit: $1.71-$2.09
Max loss: $2.91
Max gain: $2.09
BE: 67.91 / 82.09
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit or before IV crush.
Gamma pinning $73-$76 and 60% beat rate favor range-bound price action.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call wings to profit from low volatility move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $80.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $80.00 call
Debit: $1.04-$1.27
Max loss: $1.27
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit after earnings if IV crushes; adjust if spot invalidates.
Upward-sloping term structure and expected 30-50% IV crush benefit short front vol.
Outperforms: Sells short-term call, buys longer-term call to capture time decay and vol decline.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00 put + sell $80.00 call
Credit: $2.92-$3.57
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.57
BE: 66.43 / 83.57
Trigger: Monitor delta; close at 50% gain or adjust if spot nears strikes.
High IV offers rich premium, but unlimited risk and beat rate suggests upward bias.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to collect premium from stable price.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush after earnings (implied move 9.7%)
!Large put OI at $65 could act as floor/magnet

What to Watch

?Spot reaction around max pain $73-$76
?Gamma flip near $65 (put OI concentration)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.