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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $78.72EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.77
2.2% from close
Price Gap
+6.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
97
High premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

29d to earnings; bullish call flow vs tail hedges; 60% beat rate; moderate confidence.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 7.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Tail hedges at extreme strikes counterbalance call buying; watch spot relative to $75 gamma flip.
📈Call accumulation at $77-78 suggests bullish bets
⚠️Deep OTM puts signal downside fear
📉Post-earnings IV crush likely 30%

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,815 (2.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (29 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$1.20 (1.6%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$2.93 (3.8%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$3.78 (4.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term high, earnings hump, longer-term moderate.

Crush estimate: ~30% IV drop post-earnings.

Skew: Extreme put skew on far OTM strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Tends to exceed implied by ~2%

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias on beats.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $75.76/$78.15; 1w $74.03/$79.89
3Max pain pins: $83 (2026-06-18); $81 (2026-06-26); $82 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume at $77-$78 strikes, vol/OI 6-10x.

Bullish positioning.

Deep OTM puts at $100+ with IV 143-318%

Tail hedging/speculation.

Strategies

Post-Earnings IV Crush Calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $80.00 call
Debit: $0.24-$0.30
Max loss: $0.30
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close after IV crush; adjust if stock breaches $75.
Capitalizes on earnings IV hump and ~30% crush; slight bullish bias aligns with call flow.
Outperforms: Sell front-week $80 call, buy back-week $80 call; profits if stock stays near $80 through earnings and IV contracts.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bullish Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00/$90.00 call spread
Debit: $0.60-$0.73
Max loss: $0.73
Max gain: $4.27
BE: $85.73
Trigger: Let run to expiration; exit early if stock hits $90.
Slight bullish bias on beats; call wall at $90 defines upside; limited loss.
Outperforms: Buy $85/$90 call spread; gains if NFLX rallies above $85 by earnings.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Low-Cost Earnings Strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $70.00 put + buy $85.00 call
Debit: $2.34-$2.87
Max loss: $2.87
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 67.13 / 87.87
Trigger: Hold through earnings; close quickly after move or IV crush.
Cheaper than straddle; wide strikes capture larger moves; 60% beat rate supports upside.
Outperforms: Buy $70 put and $85 call; profits on move beyond strikes.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00 put + buy $80.00 call
Debit: $7.34-$8.97
Max loss: $8.97
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 71.03 / 88.97
Earnings tend to exceed implied move by ~2%; buy volatility
Outperforms: Capture earnings move via ATM straddle
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss (40% history)
!Market selloff (SPY down, VIX 18)
!Gamma flip at $75
!High IV crush risk

What to Watch

?Spot hold above $75 support
?Unusual puts activity
?Earnings guidance
?Call wall at $90
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.