thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $72.88EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.46
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+7.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bearish flow, $80M net premium negative, heavy long-dated put buying. Spot near support, IV elevated ahead of earnings.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Jan 2027 $65 put (55k vol) signals structural hedging/ bearish bet.
🔻Heavy put buying Jan 2027 $65 (55k vol) – bearish.
🟢Unusual call Aug $74 (4.4k vol) – bullish.
⚠️Net premium -80M, bearish flow.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (23 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$2.00 (2.7%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$3.08 (4.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$4.07 (5.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end IV: 3d 2.7%, 9d 4.2%, 17d 5.6%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush expected; IV high.

Skew: Deep OTM put skew elevated (e.g., $60 45.4% IV).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 60%; expected moves 2.7-5.6%; avg move unknown.

Directional bias: Flow bearish but spot near support; history neutral.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $70.82/$74.81; 1w $69.74/$75.90
2Max pain pins: $76 (2026-06-26); $77 (2026-07-02); $79 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large Jan 2027 $65 put: 55k vol vs 4.5k OI (12.3x).

Likely institutional hedging.

Aug $74 call: 4.4k vol vs 366 OI (12.1x).

Potential bullish bet.

Net premium -$80.5M, PC vol ratio 1.03.

Slight bearish flow.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-10 $70.00 put + sell $80.00 call
Credit: $1.07-$1.30
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.30
BE: 68.70 / 81.30
Trigger: Close at 50% profit or stop loss at 2x credit.
Elevated front-end IV, collect premium pre-earnings.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put & call expiring 7/10, benefit from IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $70.00 put
Debit: $1.92-$2.35
Max loss: $2.35
Max gain: $67.65
BE: $67.65
Trigger: Set stop at $76; roll if spot stabilizes.
Heavy put flow, spot below MP, bearish hedge.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put for protection or directional bet on drop.
Underperforms: Break above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $70.00 put + buy $80.00 call
Debit: $3.09-$3.77
Max loss: $3.77
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 66.23 / 83.77
Trigger: Take profit on first leg; adjust strike if move occurs.
Cheaper than straddle, captures large move.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call, profit from volatility expansion.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put + buy $75.00 call
Debit: $6.53-$7.98
Max loss: $7.98
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 67.02 / 82.98
Elevated IV and expected 2.7-5.6% move; profits from large move.
Outperforms: Buy volatility ahead of earnings with ATM straddle.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot below MP ($76.89); support $68.75.
!VIX 19.5, high vol.
!Earnings 23d out; crush risk.
!Large put OI could pin.

What to Watch

?Spot hold above $72?
?Call wall $90-$105.
?Gamma flip if spot below $70.
?Earnings guidance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.