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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $77.38EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.60
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+2.62
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings Jul 16; IV elevated but 28d out. Mixed flow: heavy put premium yet call volume elevated. Historical beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Earnings in 28 days; expected move ~6%; gamma flip at $75; deep OTM put activity today suggests dividend arbitrage.
🔴Deep OTM puts expiring today have IV >400% – likely dividend arbitrage unwind.
🟢Call activity elevated near $77-$78; bullish volume ratio 0.65.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 72,669 (3.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (28 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$2.61 (3.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$3.59 (4.6%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$4.65 (6.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 8d 3.4%, 14d 4.6%, 22d 6.0%

Crush estimate: Expected 50-70% IV drop post-earnings

Skew: OTM puts elevated IV (deep OTM >400%); calls moderate

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A from provided data

Directional bias: Mixed: net put premium -$63M but call volume ratio 0.65

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $74.77/$79.98
3Max pain pins: $82 (2026-06-18); $80 (2026-06-26); $80 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $77 call (6/18) vol/OI 12.6x, OI surge. $78 call (6/26) vol 9442, OI 2182.

Aggressive call buying near spot; bullish positioning ahead of earnings.

Deep OTM $45 put (7/17) vol 6133, OI 106; OTM puts (6/18) with IV>400%.

Likely dividend arbitrage or tail hedging; extreme OTM put selling.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put wing and $85.00/$90.00 call wing
Credit: $1.23-$1.51
Max loss: $3.49
Max gain: $1.51
BE: 68.49 / 86.51
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings; adjust if spot approaches $75 or $90.
Highest probability of profit given elevated IV, steep contango, and expected 50-70% IV crush. Defined risk and tight wings align with max pain $80 and gamma flip at $75.
Outperforms: Captures premium from IV crush and range-bound move around max pain, with limited risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00 put + sell $90.00 call
Credit: $1.68-$2.05
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.05
BE: 67.95 / 92.05
Trigger: Roll or close if delta exceeds 0.30; monitor earnings gap risk.
Higher premium than iron condor with same directional bias; OTM put floor at $73 provides support. Unlimited risk is offset by higher credit and 60% historical beat rate.
Outperforms: Sells wings at key support/resistance levels to collect elevated premium, benefiting from contango and crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put + buy $85.00 call
Debit: $3.68-$4.49
Max loss: $4.49
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 70.51 / 89.49
Earnings in 28 days, expected move 6%, strangle cheaper than straddle, captures larger range
Outperforms: Buy cheap convexity into NFLX earnings via OTM strangle
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss could gap down below $75 gamma flip
!IV crush if move smaller than expected
!Ex-dividend effect on put pricing
!Gamma squeeze potential if spot holds above $75

What to Watch

?Earnings Jul 16; expected move ~6%
?Gamma flip at $75 (75% probability)
?Max pain $80 for Jul 2 and 16 expirations
?Call wall $90-$105; put floor $73-$73
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.