thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $71.84EOD only
Max Pain
$75.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.66
2.3% from close
Price Gap
+3.16
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 21 days; IV elevated with heavy short-dated put activity. Spot below max pain. Historical beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual put buying near expiry signals bearish positioning; watch for spot reaction to gamma flip at $65.
⚠️Heavy short-dated put activity signals downside hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,487 (8.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$1.23 (1.7%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$2.53 (3.6%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$3.59 (5.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 1d 1.7%, 7d 3.6%, 15d 5.1%.

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings IV contraction expected.

Skew: Skew steep on short-dated puts; heavy buying at strikes $81-$84.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A

Directional bias: Slightly bullish (60% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$65.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $69.67/$72.13; 1w $68.38/$73.43
3Max pain pins: $75 (2026-06-26); $75 (2026-07-02); $78 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual volume in 6/26 $71 Put (14,271 vol vs 4,392 OI) and $82-$84 Puts with high vol/OI ratios.

Aggressive downside hedging or speculative bets before event.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $65.00 put + sell $80.00 call
Credit: $1.68-$2.06
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.06
BE: 62.94 / 82.06
Trigger: Monitor spot near 65 or 80; consider closing if breach approaches, or roll to next expiration.
Highest probability play due to range-bound expectations between support (65) and resistance (80) with IV crush post-earnings.
Outperforms: Captures elevated IV and time decay, profiting from IV contraction and stock staying within 65-80.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $75.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 call
Debit: $1.21-$1.47
Max loss: $1.47
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Watch for gap moves; consider early close if IV expands sharply before earnings.
Second best as it exploits upward term structure with limited risk and benefits from IV rise then crush.
Outperforms: Sells short-term IV and buys longer-term IV, profiting from term structure flattening and time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $74.00/$75.00 call spread
Debit: $0.29-$0.35
Max loss: $0.35
Max gain: $0.65
BE: $74.35
Trigger: Set stop-loss at $67.32; take profit if spot exceeds $75 after earnings.
Lower probability but aligned with directional bias (60% beat rate) and gamma support at $65.
Outperforms: Bullish bet on earnings beat with defined risk, benefiting from high IV but limited upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.

Risk Assessment

!VIX near 19, high vol regime.
!Spot 5.5% below max pain ($75), suggesting downside pressure.
!Gamma flip at $65 (put OI concentration).

What to Watch

?Earnings on 7/16: subscriber growth, revenue guidance.
?IV crush post-earnings: expected move ±5.1% by 7/10.
?Put wall at $90-$105 and support at $65.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.