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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $77.38EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.60
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+2.62
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings in 24 days; spot ~$72 near support; heavy near-dated call flow suggests bullish positioning; historical beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Massive open interest in 6/26 $74-$76 calls with high vol/oi ratios indicates aggressive short-term bullish bets.
🐂6/26 $74-$76 call OI surged; aggressive bullish bets near earnings.
⚠️6/26 $70 put volume high; downside hedging active.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (24 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$2.45 (3.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$3.48 (4.8%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$4.44 (6.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; near-term IV ~37%, longer-dated higher.

Crush estimate: Expect ~30-40% IV drop post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated at low strikes; calls active at high moneyness.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves roughly in line with implied.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias due to 60% beat rate.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $69.39/$76.36
2Max pain pins: $80 (2026-06-26); $80 (2026-07-02); $81 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying at $74-$76 strikes expiring 6/26.

Aggressive short-term bullish positioning ahead of earnings.

Notable put buying at $70-$72 strikes expiring 6/26.

Hedging against downside risk near support levels.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00/$85.00 call spread
Debit: $0.66-$0.80
Max loss: $0.80
Max gain: $4.20
BE: $80.80
Trigger: Exit if spot drops below $70 support or after earnings.
Aligns with bullish call flow and 60% beat rate; limited risk under $1.
Outperforms: Buy $80/$85 call spread to capture upside with defined risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put wing and $75.00/$80.00 call wing
Credit: $2.53-$3.10
Max loss: $1.90
Max gain: $3.10
BE: 66.90 / 78.10
Trigger: Adjust wings if spot approaches $70 or $75 before earnings.
Collects elevated IV premium with defined risk; OI near strikes supports range.
Outperforms: Sell $70/$65 put spread and $75/$80 call spread to profit from low volatility.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put + buy $75.00 call
Debit: $6.88-$8.40
Max loss: $8.40
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 66.60 / 83.40
Trigger: Reduce position into earnings to manage IV crush; take profit if move exceeds debit.
Captures large post-earnings move; heavy call flow and 60% beat rate add upside potential.
Outperforms: Buy ATM $75 put and call to profit from volatility.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00 put + sell $80.00 call
Credit: $3.33-$4.08
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.08
BE: 65.92 / 84.08
High IV pre-earnings; slight bullish bias but undefined risk mitigated by OTM strikes.
Outperforms: Sell OTM strangle before earnings; profit from premium decay and IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings event risk: binary outcome may gap stock.
!IV crush: post-earnings volatility decline may hurt long premium positions.
!Low liquidity in deep OTM options could exacerbate slippage.

What to Watch

?Spot price action near $70 support and $77 resistance.
?Changes in open interest at key strikes ($74-$76 calls, $70 puts).
?IV dynamics: near-term term structure steepening or flattening.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.