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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $80.34EOD only
Max Pain
$87.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.50
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+6.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
58
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Mixed signals: aggressive call buying vs expensive tail puts. 35d to earnings; pre-positioning likely.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Near-term call flow bullish, but deep OTM puts at 85-98% IV show tail risk concerns.
📈10k vol on $81 call suggests aggressive bullish bet.
⚠️Deep OTM puts at 85-98% IV signal tail risk pricing.
📊60% beat rate but mixed moves; no clear edge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,130 (7.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (1d): ±$1.14 (1.4%)
  • 2026-06-18 (7d): ±$2.80 (3.4%)
  • 2026-06-26 (15d): ±$3.95 (4.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (calls 24-36%, puts 70-98%); far-term ~40%.

Crush estimate: Moderate post-earnings crush, ~10-20 pts.

Skew: Put skew extreme at high strikes; puts priced at 2-3x call IV.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ±5% vs expected ±4.5% over 5 quarters.

Directional bias: 60% beat rate, but moves evenly split; no persistent bias.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $80.13/$82.41; 1w $78.47/$84.06
3Max pain pins: $83 (2026-06-12); $89 (2026-06-18); $85 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

10k vol on 6/12 $81 call (6.4x OI); 13.8k on 6/18 $82 call.

Aggressive bullish short-term positioning.

5.5k vol on 6/18 $97 put; 3.7k on $110 put (85-98% IV).

Tail risk hedging or bearish speculation; expensive protection.

Strategies

Short Strangle NFLX
Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 put + sell $90.00 call
Credit: $4.32-$5.28
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.28
BE: 74.72 / 95.28
Trigger: Close before earnings to avoid gamma risk; consider rolling if breached.
Only eligible candidate; captures elevated IV with no directional bias.
Outperforms: Sell $80 put and $90 call to collect premium from high near-term IV (~24-98%).
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Call wall $90-$120 may cap upside if momentum stalls.
!Put floor $73-$75; break below $75 risks acceleration.
!Gamma flip near $75 (7.7% below spot) could pin price.

What to Watch

?Earnings July 16: implied moves increase nearer event.
?Max pain $83 (6/12) and $89 (6/18) as gravity points.
?SPY/QQQ trend and VIX 19.4 for risk appetite.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.