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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $81.41EOD only
Max Pain
$84.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.10
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+2.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
53
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings 36 days out; IV elevated, call buying and put tail hedging detected. Beat rate 60% but macro headwinds.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP
Most important: Unusual call volume at $91 and deep OTM puts suggest mixed positioning; gamma flip at $75 key.
🟢Call OI wall at $90-$120 caps upside; but $91C volume shows bullish aggression.
🔴Deep OTM put buys (up to $140) indicate tail protection against downside.
🟡Gamma flip at $75; break below could see accelerated selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,043 (8.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (2d): ±$1.80 (2.2%)
  • 2026-06-18 (8d): ±$3.22 (3.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (16d): ±$4.36 (5.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 2d 2.2%, 8d 3.9%, 16d 5.3%.

Crush estimate: Typical post-earnings crush ~40-60% of pre-event IV.

Skew: Deep OTM puts trade at elevated IV (107%+), reflecting tail risk premium.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Last 5 avg move vs implied not provided; beat rate 60%.

Directional bias: Neutral; call buying balanced by put tail hedges and macro drag.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $80.20/$83.80; 1w $78.78/$85.22
3Max pain pins: $83 (2026-06-12); $89 (2026-06-18); $85 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Large buy of 3964 $91C (6/26) vs 763 OI (vol/OI 5.2x).

Bullish speculation or short hedge targeting upside.

Buy of 4581 $75P (7/10) with 1085 OI (vol/OI 4.2x).

Tail hedge or bearish bet ahead of earnings.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00/$75.00 put wing and $85.00/$90.00 call wing
Credit: $2.81-$3.43
Max loss: $1.57
Max gain: $3.43
BE: 76.57 / 88.43
Trigger: Close at 50% gain or before earnings.
Neutral bias, benefits from IV crush and time decay.
Outperforms: Defined-risk rangebound play.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-06-12 $78.00 put + buy $83.00 call
Debit: $0.51-$0.62
Max loss: $0.62
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 77.38 / 83.62
Trigger: Set stop loss; hold through earnings.
Speculative, profits from large move.
Outperforms: Unlimited upside, defined downside.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Macro selloff (SPY -1.6%, QQQ -2%) weighs on NFLX.
!Deep OTM put buying ($109, $114) signals tail risk expectations.
!Elevated VIX (22.2) adds IV premium cost.

What to Watch

?Spot holding above gamma flip $75; breakdown risks acceleration.
?Earnings IV crush magnitude; compare to historical.
?Call wall $90-$120 resistance; put floor $73-$75 support.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.