thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $81.56EOD only
Max Pain
$84.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.27
1.6% from close
Price Gap
+2.44
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
41
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX near $82, below max pain, moderate bullish flow but heavy put hedging for earnings.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 VIX 15
Most important: Earnings 42 days out; IV elevated for longer expirations; put skew steep.
🐻Heavy put buying at $106-$114 strikes for June 18 indicates bearish conviction.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 66,095 (8.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (42 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-05 (1d): ±$1.27 (1.6%)
  • 2026-06-12 (8d): ±$3.09 (3.8%)
  • 2026-06-18 (14d): ±$4.07 (5.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV suppressed (~29% weekly), long-term IV elevated (48-83% for Jun/Jul expirations).

Crush estimate: Expected IV crush post-earnings: significant given elevated levels.

Skew: Put skew elevated, especially deep OTM strikes for June/July; calls flat.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 60% (3/5); avg move not available.

Directional bias: Beat rate 60% suggests slight bullish bias, but sample small.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $80.28/$82.83; 1w $78.47/$84.64
3Max pain pins: $84 (2026-06-05); $86 (2026-06-12); $91 (2026-06-18)

Flow Highlights

20k volume on NFLX 6/5 $83 call, OI 5.6k, IV 28.6%.

Likely closing or hedging activity; near term call volume spikes.

Large put purchases at $106, $110, $114 strikes for June 18 expiration.

Bearish positioning or earnings hedge; IV elevated.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00/$75.00 put wing and $85.00/$90.00 call wing
Credit: $2.92-$3.57
Max loss: $1.43
Max gain: $3.57
BE: 76.43 / 88.57
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings; adjust if breached.
Defined-risk premium sale captures IV crush with high probability.
Outperforms: Neutral play selling wings around expected range; benefits from IV contraction post-earnings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 put + sell $85.00 call
Credit: $6.35-$7.76
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.76
BE: 72.24 / 92.76
Trigger: Set stop loss; close at 50% profit or ahead of earnings.
Higher premium than iron condor but unlimited tail risk.
Outperforms: Naked short options collect elevated IV premium; profits from time decay and IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-06-12 $79.00 put + buy $84.00 call
Debit: $1.11-$1.35
Max loss: $1.35
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 77.65 / 85.35
IV elevated for Jul expiration; beat rate 60% suggests bias but put skew steep; strangle captures both sides.
Outperforms: Buy cheap convexity before NFLX earnings, expecting large move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Downside risk from put skew; upside capped by call wall; time decay.

What to Watch

?Continued put flow at high strikes.
?Break above $84 resistance.
?Earnings date approaches.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.