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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.60EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.56
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings 7/16, far out. Bullish flow and pinning regime support near-term upside bias, but long-dated uncertainty caps conviction.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Call-heavy flows and pinning at $89 suggest near-term bullish bias despite earnings being 51 days out.
📈Call dominance: vol ratio 0.57, net premium $5.24M bullish. Watch $90 for breakout.
⚠️Put OI concentration at $73-$75 (14.5% below spot) creates a floor but also a flip risk at $75.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,812 (14.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (51 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$2.14 (2.4%)
  • 2026-06-05 (10d): ±$3.68 (4.2%)
  • 2026-06-12 (17d): ±$4.80 (5.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Normal, elevated near-term from high call activity; long-dated IV moderate.

Crush estimate: None imminent—crush expected only after earnings on 7/16.

Skew: Call skew elevated; put/call volume ratio 0.57 indicates bullish demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available for this far-out window.

Directional bias: Neutral-to-bullish; 60% beat rate supports upward bias.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $85.54/$89.82; 1w $84.00/$91.36
3Max pain pins: $89 (2026-05-29); $89 (2026-06-05); $89 (2026-06-12)

Flow Highlights

Massive call volume on May 29 $90 strike: 26.9k vol vs 13.6k OI (2.0x).

Aggressive long delta positioning betting on near-term upside above $90.

Unusual put activity: May 29 $87 put saw 12.3k vol vs 3.9k OI (3.1x).

Likely hedging for downside protection near pinning level $89.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $86.00/$82.00 put wing and $90.00/$94.00 call wing
Credit: $1.37-$1.68
Max loss: $2.32
Max gain: $1.68
BE: 84.32 / 91.68
Trigger: Take profit at 50% max gain; stop if breach of $82 or $94.
Captures elevated near-term IV within range defined by call wall ($100-$125) and put OI ($75).
Outperforms: Profits from time decay and vol contraction if NFLX stays between $86 and $90 near June 5 expiry.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Put Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-05 $86.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $85.00 put
Debit: $2.29-$2.79
Max loss: $2.79
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit near June 5 expiry; roll if put delta increases.
Near-term put IV elevated from call-heavy skew; bullish bias limits downside risk.
Outperforms: Sells near-term put to collect premium; long-dated put hedges tail risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-05 $90.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $95.00 call
Debit: $1.45-$1.78
Max loss: $1.78
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close by June 5 expiry; avoid holding through possible rally.
Near-term call IV rich from demand; moderate long-dated IV benefits from normalization.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call against long-dated call to profit from vol contraction.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00 put + buy $90.00 call
Debit: $7.15-$8.74
Max loss: $8.74
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 76.26 / 98.74
Lower premium than straddle; strikes at $95 call and $85 put capture potential breakout or breakdown away from $90 pin.
Outperforms: Buy strangle for cheaper long-vol exposure around earnings.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $75 (put OI concentration) could accelerate declines if breached.
!Call wall $100-$125 limits upside potential; large open interest at $100-$125 acts as resistance.

What to Watch

?May 29 expiry: $90 call and $87 put activity for pinning signals.
?Earnings date 7/16: IV ramp in late June/early July.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.