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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $73.81EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry Jul 2, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.54
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
NFLX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

NFLX exhibits high volatility with negative dealer gamma and mixed flow, but strong GEX/flow alignment and spot at max pain ($74) suggest upside bias. Short gamma amplifies moves—break above $74 targets $75.92–$80.75, while failure risks reversion to $71.64. High confidence in directional expansion.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 spot at MP +1 VIX 18 = 9
Supports: GEX/flow alignment, spot at MP, high VIX, negative dealer gamma for momentum
Conflicts: Mixed flow, short gamma can reverse, wide price ranges imply uncertainty
📈GEX/flow alignment: strong directional signal
🎯$74 max pain: key pivot for near-term price
⚡Negative dealer gamma amplifies any move
🌊High vol regime: 2D range $71.64–$75.92 wide

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated (High) as VIX 18 supports; event-driven around weekly expirations (Jul 2, 10, 17) keeps term rich.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma Trending with dealer net short -$898K; flip near $65 suggests vulnerability to sharp swings.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium—call/put activity balanced but aligned with GEX for directional bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at max pain ($74), pin action likely in absence of strong catalyst.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins align with weekly expirations; high vol suggests short-term breakout event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$71.64$75.92
Resistance $75.92; support $71.64; break above $74 accelerates
Next 2 weeks
$66.80$80.75
Wider range $66.80–$80.75; upside target $80.75 if breakout holds

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $74 (2026-07-02); $75 (2026-07-10); $80 (2026-07-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $71.64/$75.92
Support: $66.80
Resistance: $74.00 · $80.75
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,663 (11.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: $66.80 (2W low), $71.64 (2D low); Resistance: $74 (max pain), $75.92 (2D high), $80.75 (2W high); Gamma flip ~$65.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-898K

DEX: +131.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$65 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,663 (11.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net short gamma -$898K, positive delta +131M shares; gamma flip ~$65. Short gamma amplifies moves and risks sharp reversals near flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich versus VIX 18, reflecting event premium from weekly expirations; suggests market expects larger moves.

Term structure: Contango with kinks at Jul 2, 10, 17 expiries; back month IV elevated for potential breakout.

Skew: Put skew slightly elevated due to negative gamma; opportunity to sell premium if directional view holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$63.8M premium; call vol ratio 0.49, OI 0.81; net put buying.

Directional prints: 42.4 call 79 OTM 2026-07-02 — 8515 vol vs 2690 OI (3.2x), bought calls, speculation. 43.8 put 64 OTM 2026-07-10 — 4563 vol vs 111 OI (41.1x), bought puts, bearish hedge.

Unusual: 73.3 put 111 ITM 2026-09-18 — 2225 vol vs 447 OI (5x), bought puts, downside hedge. 36.5 put 67 OTM 2026-07-10 — 1092 vol vs 251 OI (4.3x), bought puts, bearish. 86.3 put 108 ITM 2026-08-21 — 1225 vol vs 321 OI (3.8x), bought puts, high IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to breach $74 triggers reversion to $71.64
!Short gamma reversal if spot moves opposite positioning
!Mixed flow indicates lack of conviction
!Broader market sell-off invalidates bullish thesis

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-17 $74.00/$82.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit captures directional expansion; short gamma amplifies move
Failure to hold $74 leads to spread loss; time decay if stagnant
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00 call
Why now: Short gamma and mixed flow but strong GEX alignment; max pain $74 pivot
Unlimited downside if thesis wrong; theta accelerates post-earnings

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $74.00/$82.00 call spread
Buy $74/$82 call spread to profit from directional expansion with capped loss.
Why this play: Defined risk with high upside capture; short gamma amplifies move through $74 pivot.
Debit: $2.20-$2.69
Max loss: $2.69
BE: $76.69
Mgmt: Exit at $82 or if spot falls below $66.8.
Traders seeking asymmetric risk/reward near max pain pivot.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00 call
Buy $79 call to leverage directional conviction with unlimited gain potential.
Why this play: Unlimited upside if short gamma triggers breakout; strong GEX alignment supports bullish move.
Debit: $1.52-$1.85
Max loss: $1.85
BE: $80.85
Mgmt: Trail stop or exit if spot drops below $66.8; consider early close near max pain.
Aggressive traders comfortable with higher premium decay risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFNFLX holds above $74.00 with bullish momentum → Buy 2026-07-17 $74/$82 call spread near $2.20-$2.69
IFNFLX breaks above $74.00 with strong volume → Buy 2026-07-17 $79 call near $1.52-$1.85
Exit Triggers
EXITNFLX drops below $66.80 → Exit all bullish positions
EXITNFLX reaches $82.00 → Take profit on $74/$82 call spread

Tactical Summary

NFLX bullish bias, short gamma at max pain $74. Key resistance $75.92-$80.75, support $71.64-$66.80. High probability expansion. Enter above $74; invalidation below $66.80.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.