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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $77.38EOD only

Max Pain

$80.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.60

3.4% from close

Price Gap

+2.62

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.75

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with near-term upside toward max pain $82, supported by negative GEX and below-MP spot.

Confidence:

7 / 10

GEX/flow alignment (+2), spot distance from MP (-1), VIX support (+1). Base 5 adjusted to 7.

Supports: Negative GEX (-$95.5M) amplifying moves; spot $77 below MP $82; gamma flip ~$75 as support.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; spot 5.6% from MP may not pin; high IV could contract.

📈Negative GEX ($-95.5M) suggests dealer hedging drives momentum upward.

🎯Max pain $82 offers ~6% upside from current $77.4; prime pin target.

⚖️VIX 16 and high IV imply elevated premiums but fair vol environment.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to historical, likely due to expiration event and negative gamma.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$95.5M (negative), trending regime; gamma flip near $75 based on put OI.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; no strong directional lean from flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $77.4 is 5.6% below max pain $82 (6/18 expiry), creating upside pin potential.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming 6/18 expiry with high IV and negative GEX suggests event-driven positioning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$74.77$79.98

Support from gamma flip near $75; resistance at $79.98; aim for max pain $82.

Next 2 weeks

$73.78$80.97

Range $73.78-$80.97; breakout above $80 opens path to $82+.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $82 (2026-06-18); $80 (2026-06-26); $80 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $74.77/$79.98

Support: $75.00 · $73.78 · $73.00

Resistance: $80.97 · $82.00

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 72,669 (3.1% below spot)

Structural: Support: 75.0, 73.78, 73.0 (gamma flip ~$75). Resistance: 80.97, 82.0 (max pain). EM guardrails 1w $74.77/$79.98.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-95.5M

DEX: +133.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 72,669 (3.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$95.5M (negative), DEX +133.0M shares. Gamma flip ~$75 from put OI concentration (72,669 contracts, 3.1% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV high vs VIX (16.4), suggesting event premium; may contract post-expiry.

Term structure: Backwardated with 6/18 expiry kink; near-term IV elevated relative to back months.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads or defined-risk bullish plays targeting $80-$82.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$63.6M shows bearish dollar flow despite higher call volume.

Directional prints: 484.8 put 110 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.9; bearish hedge (bought) vs sale (sold); prefer bought. 9.8 call 78 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.3; sold call (bearish) vs bought; prefer sold.

Unusual: 75.8 put 45 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 57.9; extreme retail put buying; bearish. 13.7 call 77 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 12.6; unusual call buying near expiry; neutral. 54.3 call 98 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 6.0; small new bullish position.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to rally to MP, stays range-bound.

!Broad market selloff (QQQ -2.5% but SPY +0.78% conflicting).

!High IV collapses post-expiry, reducing option value.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $84.00 call Why now: Negative GEX and below-MP spot suggest upside; high IV at earnings offers convexity.	IV crush post-earnings if move is small; time decay if no upside.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $81.00/$89.00 call spread Why now: Debit spread limits downside while benefiting from upside to $85.	Max loss if spot below long strike; cap at short strike.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-24 $72.00/$65.00 put spread Why now: Selling put credit collects premium with bullish bias; support near $78.	Assignment if spot drops below short strike; tail risk from broad selloff.

Top Plays

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-24 $84.00 call

Buy call to capture upside from earnings; high IV offers leverage.

Why this play: Direct bullish play with convexity; negative GEX supports upside to $82.

Debit: $1.75-$2.14

Max loss: $2.14

BE: $86.14

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $75; take profits near $85.

Aggressive traders seeking unlimited upside.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $81.00/$89.00 call spread

Debit spread with limited loss; targets $85.

Why this play: Defined risk and cost, benefits from upside; less sensitive to IV crush.

Debit: $1.59-$1.94

Max loss: $1.94

BE: $82.94

Mgmt: Exit if spot below $75; let run to near expiration.

Traders preferring capped risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $72.00/$65.00 put spread

Sell put spread below support; profits if spot stays above $72.

Why this play: Collects premium with bullish bias; defensive alternative.

Credit: $1.12-$1.38

Max loss: $5.62

BE: $70.62

Mgmt: Close early if spot nears $72; hold for time decay.

Income-focused traders with neutral-bullish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot above $75 gamma flip → Buy 2026-07-24 $84 call $1.75-$2.14

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $75 → Exit long call and bull call spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish into earnings July 16; max pain $82. Use $75 as invalidation. Entry on strength, target $85. Alternatives: $81/$89 bull call spread, $72/$65 put credit spread. Manage risk if spot breaks $75.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.