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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $71.84EOD only

Max Pain

$75.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.66

2.3% from close

Price Gap

+3.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.81

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

NFLX trades below max pain ($75) with dealers short gamma (-$73.3M), creating upward pin pressure to expiry. High vol supports premium selling. Bias bullish near-term toward $75, but gamma flip at $65 is a key downside risk.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 5.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX ~19

Supports: GEX short gamma, positive dealer delta, below MP, VIX elevated
Conflicts: Mixed flow, gamma flip risk at $65

📊Negative GEX -$73.3M creates trending conditions

🎯Max pain at $75 attracts price

⚠️Gamma flip at $65 is key risk level

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

NFLX IV is high, above typical range, reflecting elevated uncertainty. VIX ~19 provides context.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma is trending with negative GEX (-$73.3M), amplifying moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is mixed; net premium context ambiguous from available data.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain ($75) by ~5.5%, creating upward pin pressure.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol, dealer short gamma, and spot below MP suggest event-driven pin action near expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$69.67$72.13

Drift toward $75 max pain

Next 1 week

$68.38$73.43

Pin to $75 OI concentration

Next 2 weeks

$67.32$74.49

Wider range, binary event risk

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $75 (2026-06-26); $75 (2026-07-02); $78 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $69.67/$72.13; 1w $68.38/$73.43

Support: $67.32 · $65.00

Resistance: $74.49 · $75.00

Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,487 (8.3% below spot)

Structural: Support: $67.32, $65.00; Resistance: $74.49, $75.00; Gamma flip near $65.00

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-73.3M

DEX: +133.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$65 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,487 (8.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma ($-73.3M) long delta (+133.1M shares); gamma flip at ~$65 put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NFLX IV is relatively rich vs VIX (~19), indicating elevated event risk or premium.

Term structure: Term structure likely in contango with front-end elevated due to event; flattening further out.

Skew: Put skew elevated from downside demand; consider selling puts at $65 support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $131M net premium: puts dominate premium despite higher call volume, indicating aggressive put buying.

Directional prints: 29.1 put 71 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 14271 OI 4392 (3.2x); if bought, bearish; if sold, bullish. Prefer bought given net premium. 31 call 71 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2425 OI 702 (3.5x); if bought, bullish; if sold, bearish. Prefer bought as hedge or speculation.

Unusual: 81.6 put 108 ITM 2026-08-21 — Vol 1225 OI 324 (3.8x), high IV; likely bought as tail hedge. 48.1 put 45 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol 452 OI 129 (3.5x); deep OTM long-dated put, likely bought as bearish speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $65 triggers dealer hedging

!Earnings event volatility spike

!Flow shift to bearish if spot fails support

!IV contraction post-event

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $70.00/$75.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread limits cost while targeting max pain level. High IV supports premium but spread reduces vega exposure.	Upside capped above $75; volatility contraction could reduce profit even if direction correct.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $65.00/$60.00 put spread Why now: High IV inflates premium; defined risk below 61 limits tail loss. Short put at 65 benefits from theta decay.	Sharp selloff below 65 could trigger gamma flip and amplify losses. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $61.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $60.00.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 call Why now: Dealer short gamma and max pain suggest upward drift; call offers leveraged upside with limited downside.	Time decay and implied vol contraction if stock doesn't rally quickly; all-or-nothing.

Top Plays

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $65.00/$60.00 put spread

Sell $65/$60 put spread to collect premium, capitalizing on high IV and upward pin pressure.

Why this play: Best risk/reward: defined risk, theta decay, high IV premium, bullish bias with downside buffer.

Credit: $0.60-$0.74

Max loss: $4.26

BE: $64.26

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaks below $65 support.

Income-focused traders seeking defined risk.

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $70.00/$75.00 call spread

Buy $70/$75 call spread to profit from bullish drift with limited downside.

Why this play: Targets max pain $75 with defined cost, reduces vega exposure, but requires upward move.

Debit: $1.77-$2.17

Max loss: $2.17

BE: $72.17

Mgmt: Exit if spot fails $70 or at expiration.

Traders with moderate bullish conviction.

Long call

Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 call

Buy $75 call for leveraged upside, but high IV and put dominance increase risk.

Why this play: Highest upside but full premium risk; less preferred due to bearish flow and gamma flip risk.

Debit: $1.74-$2.12

Max loss: $2.12

BE: $77.12

Mgmt: Set stop loss at $67; take profit at $77 or earnings.

Aggressive traders comfortable with tail risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $65.00 and declines to $67.32 support → THEN sell $65/$60 put spread for 0.60-0.74 credit

IFIF spot rebounds from $67.32 support and moves toward $75 resistance → THEN buy $70/$75 call spread for 1.77-2.17

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $65.00 gamma flip level → THEN close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias to $75 with short gamma support. Preferred: put credit spread. Key levels: support $67.32, gamma flip $65; resistance $74.49, $75. Manage break below $65.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.