Home Options NFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $81.67EOD only

Max Pain

$86.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.02

2.5% from close

Price Gap

+4.33

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.79

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bearish bias as NFLX trades below max pain with negative dealer gamma; risk of acceleration below $75 gamma flip. Dealer long delta provides support, but mixed flow and high vol suggest cautious positioning.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5: GEX/flow alignment (+2) strongly supports thesis; spot 7.4% below MP (-1) and VIX 16 (+1) moderate confidence to 7.

Supports: DEX +127M shares (dealer long delta), GEX -$96.3M (negative gamma amplifies moves), VIX 16 (low vol environment).
Conflicts: Spot well below MP (75 vs 85), mixed flow lacks directional conviction, high vol regime may cause whipsaws.

📉Negative gamma at $75: downside acceleration risk if support breaks.

📊Dealer long delta (DEX +127M) suggests buying on dips, capping downside.

🎯Max pain at $85-$84 for upcoming expiries, pinning potential near-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated (High) due to event risk from upcoming expiries and negative dealer gamma amplifying moves. Implied vol likely in 30-40% range.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma: dealers short gamma (-$96.3M GEX) with flip at ~$75, making spot prone to acceleration below that level.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium unclear; no strong directional bias from options flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot trading below max pain strikes ($85, $83, $84) by ~7.4%, implying downward pressure but potential bounce toward MP.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to monthly expiry (June 18) and dealer gamma structure make this an event-driven setup; thesis duration limited to near-term.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$76.96$80.49

Below $80, gamma flip at $75; resistance at $80.49 EM.

Next 1 week

$75.45$82.00

Expiration pinning may keep price near $75-$82; downside bias toward $75.

Next 2 weeks

$74.63$82.82

Post-expiry, dealer gamma flip could trigger larger move; range $74.63-$82.82.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-06-18); $83 (2026-06-26); $84 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $76.96/$80.49; 1w $75.45/$82.00

Support: $75.00 · $74.63 · $73.00

Resistance: $82.82 · $85.00

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,031 (4.7% below spot)

Structural: Support: $75 (gamma flip), $74.63 (2w low), $73; Resistance: $82.82 (2w high), $85 (max pain). EM guardrails: 2d $76.96/$80.49, 1w $75.45/$82.00.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-96.3M

DEX: +127.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,031 (4.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma ($-96.3M GEX), long delta (+127.4M shares); gamma flip ~$75 (put concentration 4.7% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Implied vol elevated vs VIX (16) due to event risk; options are expensive for long premium, favoring selling vol.

Term structure: Contango with front-month elevated; event kinks at weekly expiries (June 18, 26, July 2).

Skew: Put skew elevated from downside hedging; consider bear put spreads or call credit spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$43.9M premium (puts dominate $ despite higher call vol; P/C vol 0.62).

Directional prints: 31.4 call 79 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 53.6x suggests aggressive opening buy; bullish. 32 call 79 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 27.1x; likely bought, bullish near-term call. 33.4 call 78 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 12.8x; bought for bullish delta.

Unusual: 42 put 70 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 6.2x; high IV put bought as hedge or bearish bet. 43.6 call 84 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 6.9x; high IV call buy, out-of-money bullish. 43.2 call 78 ITM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 6.0x; far-dated high IV call bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $75 gamma flip, triggering accelerated sell-off.

!Max pain pinning at $85-$84 caps upside and may force mean reversion.

!Mixed flow lacks conviction; sudden shift in sentiment could reverse thesis.

!VIX spike from macro event (e.g., QQQ drop) would increase hedging costs.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $80.00/$74.00 put spread Why now: Buy 85 put, sell 80 put to cap downside while limiting cost; post-earnings follow-through.	Upside risk if NFLX rallies through max pain; max loss limited to debit paid.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-24 $74.00 put Why now: Buy put to capture move below max pain; hold through earnings for follow-through.	Time decay accelerates post-earnings; define max loss as premium paid.
Put diagonal	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-17 $75.00 put / buy 2026-07-24 $74.00 put Why now: Sell 7/17 put (near earnings vol), buy 7/24 put; limited risk.	Upside risk if NFLX jumps; dividends not material.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $80.00/$74.00 put spread

Buy 80 put, sell 74 put; costs ~$2.63, max gain $3.11 above $74.

Why this play: Best fits neutral-bearish thesis; limited risk, captures downside below max pain.

Debit: $2.36-$2.89

Max loss: $2.89

BE: $77.11

Mgmt: Close if stock breaks above 82.82 invalidation; hold through earnings.

Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure.

Put Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $75.00 put / buy 2026-07-24 $74.00 put

Sell 7/17 $75 put, buy 7/24 $74 put; net debit ~$0.15.

Why this play: Low-cost, limited risk play on vol crush and bearish drift.

Credit: $0.14-$0.17

Max loss: $0.01

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Exit if stock drops below $75 early; hold to 7/17 expiration.

Traders wanting cheap hedge with time decay.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-24 $74.00 put

Buy 7/24 $74 put; cost ~$2.10, unlimited upside below $74.

Why this play: Maximum bearish payoff if downside accelerates; high risk.

Debit: $1.89-$2.31

Max loss: $2.31

BE: $71.69

Mgmt: Set stop at 82.82; consider taking profit at 50% gain.

Aggressive traders confident in sharp sell-off.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf NFLX price breaks below $75 (gamma flip) on volume, → then enter the bear put spread: buy 7/24 $80 put and sell $74 put for net debit ~$2.63.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf NFLX price rallies above $82.82 (2-week high), → then exit the bear put spread to cap loss.

EXITIf NFLX price falls to $75, → then exit the put diagonal (short 7/17 $75 put / long 7/24 $74 put) as invalidation level triggered.

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish bias; support $75 (gamma flip) and resistance $82.82. Top play: bear put spread (80/74) for defined risk. Put diagonal as cheap hedged spread. Invalidation above $82.82 or at $75 for diagonal.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.