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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $72.88EOD only

Max Pain

$80.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.46

3.4% from close

Price Gap

+7.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.83

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by high vol, negative gamma, and spot below max pain. Dealers amplify moves, and VIX elevated supports puts. Resistance at $76 caps upside.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base5 +2 GEX/flow aligned -0.5 spot distance +0.5 VIX19

Supports: Negative gamma, high vol, spot below MP, VIX elevated
Conflicts: Positive dealer delta, strong resistance at $76, mixed flow

⚠️Negative gamma (-$44.8M) amplifies downward moves

📉Spot 4.2% below max pain, pressure from pinning

💹High vol regime favors puts; VIX 19 supports vol premium

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to typical range, VIX 19 and market selloff drive vol high

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$44.8M negative, dealers hedge directionally; trending gamma amplifies moves

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium with put/call skew; no extreme directional consensus

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain by 4.2%, favors pinning lower

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural dealer gamma, high vol, and spot below MP support sustained bearish trend beyond single event

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$70.82$74.81

Below max pain, negative gamma, resistance at $74.81 EM

Next 1 week

$69.74$75.90

Support $69.74; range low $69.74 if weakness continues

Next 2 weeks

$68.75$76.89

Approaching support $68.75; potential bounce or further breakdown

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $76 (2026-06-26); $77 (2026-07-02); $79 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $70.82/$74.81; 1w $69.74/$75.90

Support: $68.75

Resistance: $76.00 · $76.89

Structural: Support at $68.75 (2wk low), resistance at $76 (max pain pin), $76.89 (2wk high). EM guardrails: 2d $70.82/$74.81, 1w $69.74/$75.90.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-44.8M

DEX: +129.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$44.8M (negative), DEX +129.3M shares (long delta). Dealers short gamma, long spot, amplifying downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated vs VIX (19), indicating idiosyncratic risk premium; rich for puts

Term structure: Front-end elevated, slight backwardation; flattening post-earnings expected

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts attractive if no catalyst, but risky given high vol

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium of -$80.5M with P/C vol ratio 1.03 and OI ratio 0.80 indicates bearish positioning.

Directional prints: 37.3 put 65 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 12.3 suggests aggressive put opening; likely sold to open given net put premium, bearish direction. 42.3 call 74 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 12.1 suggests unusual call activity; could be bearish (sell) or bullish (buy), but net put context favors bearish.

Unusual: 37.3 put 65 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 12.3 extreme; likely sold puts given net premium. 42.3 call 74 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 12.1 unusual; possible bearish sell of calls. 38.3 put 64 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 7.4 elevated; likely part of same put selling theme.

Risks & Catalysts

!Market rally unwinds short gamma thesis

!Resistance at $76 holds and triggers reversal

!Earnings event (if near) causes IV crush

!Positive dealer delta supports spot bounce

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-26 $69.00/$68.00 put spread Why now: High put volume and negative gamma suggest continued downside; defined risk spread captures move with limited cost.	Time decay hurts if move delayed; IV contraction after earnings may reduce value.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $69.00 put Why now: Unlimited upside risk but defined downside; captures convexity if selloff accelerates.	Time decay and potential IV crush after earnings; spot could stay above strike.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-26 $76.00/$77.00 call spread Why now: Resistance at $76 caps upside; credit spread profits from stagnant or downward move.	If spot breaks above 76, spread can lose; limited profit potential.

Top Plays

Bear put spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $69.00/$68.00 put spread

Buy $69/$68 put spread to profit from continued decline with limited cost.

Why this play: Best defined-risk play capturing downside with negative gamma and high put volume.

Debit: $0.04-$0.05

Max loss: $0.05

BE: $68.95

Mgmt: Exit if NFLX breaks above $76 invalidation level.

Traders seeking capped risk with high probability of success.

Long put

Buy 2026-06-26 $69.00 put

Buy $69 put for unlimited upside potential on downside move.

Why this play: Captures convexity if selloff accelerates beyond spread strikes.

Debit: $0.09-$0.12

Max loss: $0.12

BE: $68.88

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at premium loss; monitor vol for IV crush.

Traders with high risk tolerance expecting sharp drop.

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $76.00/$77.00 call spread

Sell $76/$77 call spread to collect premium on capped upside.

Why this play: Profits from resistance at $76; lower probability but defined credit.

Credit: $0.06-$0.08

Max loss: $0.92

BE: $76.08

Mgmt: Close if NFLX approaches $76; roll if breached.

Traders preferring credit strategies with low drawdown.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNFLX breaks below $70.82 (2d lower guardrail) → Buy NFLX 2026-06-26 $69/$68 bear put spread for net debit 0.04-0.05

IFNFLX rallies toward $76 resistance and stalls → Sell NFLX 2026-06-26 $76/$77 call credit spread for net credit 0.06-0.08

Exit Triggers

EXITNFLX closes above $76 (invalidation) → Close all bearish positions (put spread, long put, call credit spread)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, support $68.75, resistance $76. Favor bear put spread for defined risk. Monitor $70.82 break for entry, $76 for invalidation. Call credit spread alternative if rally fades.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.