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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $78.72EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.77

2.2% from close

Price Gap

+6.28

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias as negative gamma amplifies moves, spot below max pain, and market weak. Positive DEX and gamma flip at $75 limit downside. Expect drift to lower range.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot far from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Supports: Negative GEX, bearish market, spot below MP
Conflicts: Positive DEX, gamma flip support

📉Short gamma amplifies downside

🛑Gamma flip at $75 key support

🎯Max pain $83 far above, unlikely pin

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated due to market selloff and near-term expiry.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX -$120.5M; flip near $75 from put OI.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, no extreme directional skew.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~$77, below max pain $83; pin unlikely.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and negative gamma favor downside drift toward $75 support but multi-week range bound.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$75.76$78.15

Test $76 support

Next 1 week

$74.03$79.89

Approach gamma flip $75

Next 2 weeks

$73.17$80.74

Potential bounce from $75

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $83 (2026-06-18); $81 (2026-06-26); $82 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $75.76/$78.15; 1w $74.03/$79.89

Support: $75.00 · $73.17 · $73.00

Resistance: $80.74 · $83.00

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,815 (2.5% below spot)

Structural: S: $75 (gamma flip), $73 (2w low). R: $80.74 (2w high), $83 (MP).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-120.5M

DEX: +136.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,815 (2.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma (-$120.5M), long delta (+136.3M). Gamma flip ~$75 from put OI concentration. Short gamma increases volatility and trend.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV likely elevated vs VIX due to high vol regime and negative gamma; pricing downside risk.

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated for weekly expiry; possible backwardation.

Skew: Put skew may be rich; bear put spreads or selling calls if expecting limited upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative net premium $125M, P/C vol ratio 0.74 indicates bearish flow.

Directional prints: 28.5 call 78 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 6.0; massive call vol; likely sold (bearish). 186.7 put 100 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 7.3; put vol high IV; bought for downside (bearish). 143 put 96 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.9; strong put activity; likely hedging (bearish).

Unusual: 31.4 call 77 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 10.5; extreme ratio; unusual, direction unclear. 30.1 call 77 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 7.6; high turnover; likely new position. 31 call 78 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 5.8; notable volume; unusual for short tenor.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market rally

!Dealer delta buying boosts price

!Gamma flip failure on crash

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00/$70.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk bearish play with high edge given weak market and negative premium flow.	Upside reversal risk if gamma flip fails; limited max loss.
Long put	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put Why now: Direct bearish expression with limited premium outlay; benefits from negative gamma.	Time decay if drift stalls; IV contraction post-earnings.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00/$85.00 call spread Why now: Uses elevated call IV to collect credit; defined risk for weak market.	Upside surprise on earnings; limited profit.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00/$70.00 put spread

Buy $75/$70 put spread for bearish move with limited downside.

Why this play: Best risk/reward with defined max loss; exploits weak market and negative premium flow.

Debit: $1.41-$1.72

Max loss: $1.72

BE: $73.28

Mgmt: Exit if price breaches $80.74 or gamma flip fails.

Traders seeking high edge with controlled risk.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00/$85.00 call spread

Sell $80/$85 call spread to collect credit and profit from flat/weak price.

Why this play: Capitalizes on elevated call IV and bearish bias; defined risk.

Credit: $1.17-$1.42

Max loss: $3.58

BE: $81.42

Mgmt: Close if price approaches $80; monitor gamma flip.

Traders favoring credit strategies with high IV.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put

Buy $75 put to benefit from negative gamma and weak market.

Why this play: Direct bearish expression with large upside if downside accelerates.

Debit: $2.48-$3.04

Max loss: $3.04

BE: $71.96

Mgmt: Set stop at $80.74; take profits on sharp drops.

Aggressive traders with high risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFPrice tests $75 support with bearish momentum → Buy NFLX 2026-07-17 $75/$70 put spread

IFPrice rallies to $80.74 resistance → Sell NFLX 2026-07-17 $80/$85 call spread

IFPrice breaks below $75 gamma flip → Buy NFLX 2026-07-17 $75 put

Exit Triggers

EXITPrice closes above $80.74 → Close NFLX bear put spread

EXITPrice breaks below $70 (spread low) → Take profit on bear put spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias due to negative gamma and spot below max pain. Key support $75 (gamma flip) and $73. Resistance $80.74. Favor bear put spread or call credit spread for defined risk; long put for aggressive. Exit if $80.74 reclaimed.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.