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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $80.34EOD only
Max Pain
$87.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.50
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+6.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
58
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
NFLX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near-term due to dealer short gamma, spot below MP, high vol. Support at $75 critical. Event risk may cap upside. Confidence 7/10.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, -1 spot 5% below MP, +1 VIX 16. Net 7.
Supports: Dealer short gamma, spot below EM and MP, VIX moderate.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, positive DEX (+121.8M shares), support at $75.
📉Short gamma amplifies selloffs; break below $79.65 accelerates.
📊Max pain $86 vs spot $81; dealers pin lower.
⚠️Large DEX (+121.8M) may buffer selloffs near support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated (High), event-driven, above typical range.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma trending negative; dealer short gamma amplifies moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flows; balanced put/call premiums, no clear directional bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain ($86) and EM range; downside pressure near-term.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol and trending gamma indicate event positioning within 1-2 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.65$83.69
Spot below EM guardrails; resistance $83.69, support $79.65.
Next 2 weeks
$77.56$85.77
Wider range $77.56-$85.77; key support $75, resistance $86.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-18); $83 (2026-06-26); $84 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.65/$83.69
Support: $77.56 · $75.00
Resistance: $85.77 · $86.00
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 69,302 (8.2% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $86 (06/18), $83 (06/26), $84 (07/02). EM guardrails: 2d $79.65/$83.69. Support: $77.56, $75. Resistance: $85.77, $86. Gamma flip ~$75 (put OI).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-39.9M

DEX: +121.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 69,302 (8.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$39.9M, DEX +121.8M shares, gamma flip near $75.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 16.2, reflecting event premium; post-event crush risk.

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardation implied; near-expiry decay expected.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts below $75 or calendar spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$28.95M (put-heavy), but call volume ratio 0.54 indicates more call contracts traded; mixed flow.

Directional prints: 30.3 call 82 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.8, vol 19.8K; likely bought, bullish. Preferred read: bought calls for upside. 29.1 call 82 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.1, vol 4.1K; likely bought, bullish. Preferred read: bought calls for upside. 116.4 put 100 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.8, vol 1.9K; likely bought, bearish. Preferred read: bought puts for downside.

Unusual: 55.7 put 140 ITM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 3.0, vol 600 vs OI 200; unusual long-dated put buying. Preferred read: bought puts for long-term protection. 150.8 put 105 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.5, vol 1.9K vs OI 769; elevated put activity. Preferred read: bought puts. 169.1 put 110 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.4, vol 2.8K vs OI 1.1K; notable put buying. Preferred read: bought puts.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings surprise or unexpected catalyst
!Break above $86 resistance negates bearish view
!Gamma flip at $75; dealer hedging could reverse trend
!Flow shifts to heavy call buying

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00/$80.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma and spot below MP favor downside; support at $75 critical. Earnings cap upside.
Max loss if stock rallies above $85; time decay near earnings.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00 put
Why now: Spot below resistance, high vol favors put premium; event risk manageable with defined risk.
Time decay if stock doesn't fall; earnings could cause unexpected move.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00/$80.00 put spread
Buy $85/$80 put spread to profit from downside to $80, with max loss limited to cost.
Why this play: Dealer short gamma and spot below MP favor downside; support at $75 critical. Spread limits risk with defined payoff.
Debit: $2.44-$2.98
Max loss: $2.98
BE: $82.02
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $85.77 invalidation; take profit near $80 support.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish play ahead of earnings
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00 put
Buy $80 put to capture downside if NFLX breaks support before earnings.
Why this play: High vol and bearish bias favor outright puts, but defined risk of spread may be preferred given support at $75.
Debit: $2.71-$3.32
Max loss: $3.32
BE: $76.68
Mgmt: Monitor spot; close if above $85.77 or if IV collapses pre-earnings.
Traders willing to accept higher premium for unlimited upside potential

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF NFLX price is below $85.77 resistance → Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00/$80.00 put spread at 2.44-2.98
IFIF NFLX price breaks below $77.56 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00 put at 2.71-3.32
Exit Triggers
EXITIF NFLX price rises above $85.77 resistance → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias ahead of earnings; prefer defined-risk put spread. Enter on weakness below $85.77 or after support break. Exit if resistance reclaimed. Key downside target at $75 gamma flip.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.