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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $70.90EOD only

Max Pain

$75.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.23

1.7% from close

Price Gap

+4.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias as spot trades 1.1% above max pain ($73) with positive dealer gamma ($+122.5M) pinning price near $73-$74. High vol and mixed flow limit upside, but gamma support keeps downside protected. Breakout above $76 resistance or below $73 support would shift stance.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5: GEX/flow contradict (-1), GEX positive pinning (+1), spot 1.1% from MP (+0.5), VIX 18 (+0.5) → net 6.

Supports: Positive dealer gamma, spot near max pain, VIX moderate, key support/resistance defined.
Conflicts: High vol regime, mixed flow, resistance at $76, gamma flip at $65.

📌Spot 1.1% above MP $73; positive gamma pins near $73-$74.

🛡️Support $73 (MP) and $70.09 (1w low); resistance $76-$77.52.

⚠️Gamma flip at $65 (put OI concentration) is distant; low flip risk near-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is elevated (High) relative to typical due to event risk (earnings/expiry). VIX 18 provides tailwind for vol premium.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealer gamma positive ($+122.5M), supporting pinning near max pain. Gamma flip at $65, well below spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; net premium context unclear. P/C ratio not extreme, indicating no strong directional bets.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot 1.1% above max pain ($73) for 2026-06-26 expiry, favoring pinning and mean reversion.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiration on 2026-06-26 creates short-term pinning dynamics. High vol and gamma support event-driven move.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$71.27$76.34

Range $71.27-$76.34; pinning near $73-$74 with breakout risk above $76 or below $73.

Next 2 weeks

$70.09$77.52

Range $70.09-$77.52; post-expiry gamma decay could lead to drift lower toward support $70.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $73 (2026-06-26); $74 (2026-07-02); $76 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $71.27/$76.34

Support: $73.00 · $70.09

Resistance: $77.52

Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,622 (11.9% below spot)

Structural: Support: $73 (max pain), $70.09 (1w low). Resistance: $76 (1w high), $77.52 (2w high). Gamma flip: $65.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+122.5M

DEX: +130.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$65 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,622 (11.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net gamma positive at $+122.5M, concentrated near $73-$75. Dealers hedging delta by buying dips, selling rallies; pinning bias.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NFLX IV is elevated vs VIX (18) due to event risk (expiry/earnings). Rich vol suggests option sellers are favored.

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardated into expiry. Event kinks around weekly expiration; post-expiry term structure normalizes.

Skew: Put skew elevated for downside protection. Opportunity: sell out-of-the-money puts near support ($70) to capture premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium -$84M, heavy put premium despite 0.69 P/C vol ratio, bearish positioning.

Directional prints: 24.4 put 74 ITM 2026-06-26 — 47k vol vs 2.4k OI, 19.7x ratio, aggressive put buying; bearish. 43.7 put 60 OTM 2026-11-20 — 26k vol vs 2.6k OI, 10x ratio, long-dated put accumulation; bearish. 12.5 put 73 OTM 2026-06-26 — 34k vol vs 7.6k OI, 4.5x ratio, notable put activity; bearish.

Unusual: 24.4 put 74 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 19.7x extreme, highly unusual; suggests bearish flow. 34.4 put 74 ITM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 10.6x, elevated OTM put volume; unusual put activity. 43.7 put 60 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 10x, deep OTM put with high volume; unusual bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Breakout above $76 resistance could trigger short squeeze, driving price toward $77+.

!Breakdown below $73 support (max pain) could accelerate selling to gamma flip at $65.

!High IV compression post-expiry may lead to sharp reversal.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put spread Why now: Positive dealer gamma and max pain pinning near $73-$74 support downside; post-earnings vol contraction.	Upside breakout above $76 could cause loss of premium but spread caps loss.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-24 $75.00/$80.00 call spread Why now: Gamma support could push to $76 resistance; post-earnings vol decline favors debit spreads.	Stagnation or reversal after earnings; spread has negative theta.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put wing and $80.00/$85.00 call wing Why now: High IV and pinning action support range trade; wings at key support/resistance levels.	Sharp move beyond wings could cause loss; post-earnings vol spike possible. Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $69.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $70.00.; long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $64.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $65.00.; long_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $83.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $85.00.

Top Plays

Neutral range play amid mixed signals

Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put wing and $80.00/$85.00 call wing

Sell iron condor $70/$65 put and $80/$85 call; captures time decay and vol contraction.

Why this play: Best fits neutral bias and pinning; flow bearish but gamma support caps downside and upside limited by resistance.

Credit: $1.71-$2.09

Max loss: $2.91

BE: 67.91 / 82.09

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if price breaches $70 or $80 before earnings.

Traders expecting range-bound price near max pain through earnings.

Defensive bull put spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put spread

Sell $70/$65 put spread; benefits from vol crush and max pain pin.

Why this play: Supports bullish undertone while flow bearish; premium capture with downside protection from gamma.

Credit: $1.01-$1.24

Max loss: $3.76

BE: $68.76

Mgmt: Exit if price closes below $73; target 50% premium decay.

Mildly bullish traders preferring credit risk near support.

Speculative bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $75.00/$80.00 call spread

Buy $75/$80 call spread; profits if gamma support pushes through $76 resistance.

Why this play: Requires breakout; high vol favors debit but bearish flow limits conviction.

Debit: $1.45-$1.77

Max loss: $1.77

BE: $76.77

Mgmt: Sell if price fails to hold $74; take profits on $76 breach.

Aggressive traders betting on post-earnings momentum.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNFLX trades between $73 and $76 with elevated IV → Sell 2026-07-17 $70/$65 put wing and $80/$85 call wing iron condor for $1.71-$2.09 credit

IFNFLX holds above $73 support → Sell 2026-07-17 $70/$65 put credit spread for $1.01-$1.24 credit

IFNFLX breaks above $76 resistance → Buy 2026-07-24 $75/$80 call spread for $1.45-$1.77 debit

Exit Triggers

EXITNFLX closes below $73 → Close 2026-07-17 $70/$65 put credit spread and 2026-07-24 $75/$80 call spread

EXITNFLX trades above $80 or below $70 → Close 2026-07-17 iron condor

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-bullish bias with gamma support at $73. Favor short premium (iron condor or put credit spread) while price holds $73-$76. Bull call spread on breakout above $76. Exit if $73 support breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.