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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $77.38EOD only

Max Pain

$80.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.60

3.4% from close

Price Gap

+2.62

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.75

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish bias given short gamma dealer position and spot below max pain; expect grind toward $80 resistance over next 1-2 weeks, but vol and mixed flow cap upside.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 8.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17.

Supports: Dealer short gamma, positive DEX, support at $68.44, resistance at $77.32/$80.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, high vol, spot below MP with no gamma flip proximity.

📉Short gamma $61.2M amplifies directional moves.

🎯Spot 8.9% below $80 max pain, mean-reversion potential.

⚖️Flow mixed; no strong conviction from options activity.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs normal reflecting event positioning uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Dealers short gamma (-$61.2M), amplifying directional moves via hedging.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; put/call balanced lacking directional conviction.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 8.9% below $80 max pain, potential drift upward toward pin as expiration nears.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming monthly expiry June 26 and weekly expiries create gamma pin action; price below high OI suggests mean-reversion toward MP.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$69.39$76.36

Short gamma supports squeeze toward $76.36 guardrail.

Next 2 weeks

$68.44$77.32

Drift toward $80 max pain, but resistance at $77.32 may slow.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-06-26); $80 (2026-07-02); $81 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $69.39/$76.36

Support: $68.44

Resistance: $77.32 · $80.00

Structural: Support $68.44, resistance $77.32 and $80 max pain. 1w EM guardrails $69.39-$76.36.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-61.2M

DEX: +127.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma -$61.2M, long delta +127.7M shares; negative gamma amplifies swings, especially toward high OI strikes ($80).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NFLX IV elevated vs VIX, reflecting event premium ahead of monthly expiry.

Term structure: Term structure likely backwardated near expiry, with kinks around weekly expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling OTM puts could capture premium if bullish view holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$30.3M (net selling), put/call volume ratio 0.5 (call-heavy).

Directional prints: 37.4 call 74 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 117.8, IV 37.4%; likely sold (bearish) given net negative premium; buyer risk if spot rallies. 35.7 put 72 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 17.8, IV 35.7%; possible bear put buying or bullish put selling; net negative premium suggests selling bias.

Unusual: 37.4 call 74 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 117.8, IV 37.4%; extreme relative volume; likely opening sold calls. 37.5 call 73 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 92.1, IV 37.5%; heavy call activity; similar to 74C. 37.8 call 75 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 62.2, IV 37.8%; notable call volume; likely part of same bearish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails support at $68.44, triggering dealer gamma selling.

!Volatility expansion from earnings or macro shock.

!Max pain pin fails; spot breaks above $80 without follow-through.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00/$85.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread for gradual uptrend.	Max loss premium on disappointment.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$60.00 put spread Why now: Credit spread captures theta; bullish-neutral.	Break below short strike max loss.
Call diagonal	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $80.00 call Why now: Sell high IV front call, buy back-month call.	Spot below long strike or cap if rally.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00/$85.00 call spread

Buy 80/85 call spread to capture gradual upside.

Why this play: Directly expresses bullish bias with defined risk.

Debit: $0.66-$0.80

Max loss: $0.80

BE: $80.80

Mgmt: Exit near max profit or if spot breaks 68.44.

Traders seeking limited-risk bullish exposure.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$60.00 put spread

Sell 70/60 put spread for credit, with buffer to 68.44.

Why this play: Captures theta while remaining bullish-neutral.

Credit: $1.73-$2.12

Max loss: $7.88

BE: $67.88

Mgmt: Close if spot approaches 68.44 or after earnings.

Income-focused traders expecting modest upside or sideways.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $80.00 call

Sell front-month 85 call, buy back-month 80 call.

Why this play: Exploits IV skew and time decay.

Debit: $0.84-$1.03

Max loss: $1.03

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor IV changes; close if spot falls below 68.44.

Traders comfortable with calendar spreads.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above 68.44 support for 1 day → Buy the 2026-07-17 $80/$85 call spread at $0.66-$0.80

IFSpot above 70 and RSI > 60 → Sell the 2026-07-17 $70/$60 put spread for $1.73-$2.12 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below 68.44 → Close all bullish positions (call spread, put credit spread, call diagonal)

EXITSpot reaches $85 → Take profit on the bull call spread

Tactical Summary

NFLX neutral-to-bullish; key support 68.44, resistance 77.32 and $80 max pain. Enter bull call or put credit on strength; exit if support fails.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.