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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $80.34EOD only

Max Pain

$87.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.50

3.1% from close

Price Gap

+6.66

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Outlook

NFLX below max pain $83 with dealer short gamma ($-71M) and long delta (127M shares). High vol and mixed flow suggest volatile range-bound trade. Neutral-bearish bias toward 2d support $80.13, resistance at $83. Confidence 7.5 reflects GEX/flow alignment and market context.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +0.5 VIX 19.4 = 7.5. Negative gamma supports bearish lean, though strong rally conflicts.

Supports: Spot below max pain ($83); dealer negative gamma pins price; support $80.13 (2d low) and $78.47 (1w low).
Conflicts: Strong market rally (SPY +1.7%, QQQ +3.4%) pushes against bearish thesis; dealer positive delta could fuel upside.

⚠️Dealer Gamma Negative: $71M short gamma amplifies moves, pinning near max pain.

📈Positive Dealer Delta: 127M shares net long provides support on dips.

🔊High Vol Regime: IV elevated vs VIX, term structure steep.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high relative to VIX (19.4), implying elevated options premium, likely due to event risk.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma negative ($-71M) and trending; dealers short gamma will hedge directionally, increasing volatility.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow mixed, no clear directional bias from premium context.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below $83 max pain; negative gamma may pin price near it, but bearish pressure from dealer hedging limits upside.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term max pain levels ($83, $89, $85) and gamma flip at $75 define event-specific risk window.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$80.13$82.41

Range $80.13-$82.41; dealer hedging may pin to mid.

Next 1 week

$78.47$84.06

Support at $78.47; break below $80.13 targets lower.

Next 2 weeks

$77.31$85.22

Wider range $77.31-$85.22; gamma flip at $75 bounds downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $83 (2026-06-12); $89 (2026-06-18); $85 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $80.13/$82.41; 1w $78.47/$84.06

Support: $77.31 · $75.00

Resistance: $83.00 · $85.22

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,130 (7.7% below spot)

Structural: Support: $77.31 (2w low), $75 (gamma flip). Resistance: $83 (max pain), $85.22 (1w high).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-71.0M

DEX: +127.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,130 (7.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers: -$71M gamma (negative), +127M delta (long). Gamma flip ~$75. Short gamma amplifies moves; likely to pin near $83 max pain.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV high vs VIX (19.4), elevated options premium due to event risk.

Term structure: Term structure upward sloping with event kinks near weekly expirations.

Skew: Skew steep; opportunity selling upside calls if spot stays below $83.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $63.6M net premium with put/call volume ratio 0.79 indicates bearish flow, premium concentrated in puts despite higher call volume.

Directional prints: 24.4 call 81 ITM 2026-06-12 — Massive 10.5k vol on $81 call, 6.4x OI, suggests aggressive bullish positioning; likely bought. 85.8 put 97 ITM 2026-06-18 — High vol of 5.5k on OTM $97 put, 3.6x OI, implies bearish hedge or speculative put buying. 30 call 82 OTM 2026-06-18 — 13.8k vol on $82 call, 2.6x OI, also notable bullish activity but less extreme.

Unusual: 24.4 call 81 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 6.4, extremely high relative volume for near-dated OTM call; suggests speculative buying. 36.1 call 79 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 5.7 on ITM call, unusual concentration; may represent closing or opening of bullish position. 85.8 put 97 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.6 on deep OTM put with high IV, likely hedging or speculative put buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside breakout above $83 on market momentum.

!Downside break below $78.47 if vol spikes.

!Gamma flip at $75 accelerates decline.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00/$70.00 put spread Why now: Dealer short gamma and bearish flow align with downside; defined-risk expresses bearish view.	Upside breakout above $83 on market momentum or earnings beat.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$90.00 call spread Why now: Call credit spread benefits from time decay and limited upside; aligns with neutral-bearish lean.	Breakout above long call strike if volatility spikes post-earnings.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put Why now: Bearish flow and GEX support downside; long put gains from volatility event.	Time decay if stock stays above strike; earnings upside could cause loss.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00/$70.00 put spread

Buy $75/$70 put spread for moderate downside target.

Why this play: Defined risk, directly bearish, aligns with dealer gamma and flow.

Debit: $0.83-$1.02

Max loss: $1.02

BE: $73.98

Mgmt: Close if NFLX holds above $83 or take profit near target.

Traders seeking limited-risk bearish exposure.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$90.00 call spread

Sell $85/$90 call spread to collect premium on capped upside.

Why this play: Time decay play, suits neutral-bearish lean without strong direction.

Credit: $1.18-$1.45

Max loss: $3.55

BE: $86.45

Mgmt: Manage early if NFLX breaches $83; roll if necessary.

Traders preferring premium collection over directional bet.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put

Buy $75 put for volatility event downside play.

Why this play: Highest potential gain but higher cost; ranks lower due to mixed flow.

Debit: $1.45-$1.77

Max loss: $1.77

BE: $73.23

Mgmt: Set stop above $83; take partial profits on volatility spikes.

Aggressive bears anticipating strong move below support.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf NFLX breaks below 2-day support $77.31 with bearish momentum → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-07-17 $75/$70 put spread

IFIf NFLX holds below $83 resistance with bearish momentum → Enter call credit spread: sell 2026-07-17 $85/$90 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIf NFLX closes above $83 → Close all bearish positions (bear put spread and long put)

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish bias. Key support $77.31 and $75 (gamma flip); resistance $83 (max pain). Enter bear put spread on breakdown below $77.31; sell call credit spread if rally capped at $83. Exit all bearish if price reclaims $83.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.