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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $81.41EOD only

Max Pain

$84.00

Next expiry Jun 12, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.10

2.6% from close

Price Gap

+2.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.81

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Trending negative gamma with spot below MP $83 favors downside to $77.64 support, but pin risk and gamma flip at $75 add uncertainty. Bearish bias, short-term tactical patience.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base5, GEX/flow +2, spot proximity +0.5

Supports: Neg gamma, net long delta, spot below MP
Conflicts: High IV, mixed flow, macro weakness

🔥Neg gamma amplifies drops

📉Spot below MP $83 attracts pin

⚠️Gamma flip $75 may stop fall

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high from events; supports large moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Neg gamma -$23M; dealers amplify trends. Flip at $75.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; net long delta 128M shares.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP $83; pin possible but neg gamma bearish.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiries (6/12,6/18,6/26) and price ranges extend 2w.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$80.20$83.80

Target $77.64 support

Next 1 week

$78.78$85.22

Target $75 gamma flip

Next 2 weeks

$77.64$86.36

Bounce or consolidate at $75-$83

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $83 (2026-06-12); $89 (2026-06-18); $85 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $80.20/$83.80; 1w $78.78/$85.22

Support: $77.64 · $75.00

Resistance: $83.00 · $86.36 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,043 (8.5% below spot)

Structural: S: $77.64, $75 (flip); R: $83, $86.36, $90; MP pins: $83 (6/12), $89 (6/18), $85 (6/26)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-23.0M

DEX: +128.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,043 (8.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma -$23M, long delta +128M. Flip at $75 from put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (22.2) due to events.

Term structure: Near-term IV premium; backwardation.

Skew: Put skew rich; sell puts at $75 for premium but risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net short premium of -$17.4M, put/call vol 0.57, OI 0.80, bearish bias.

Directional prints: 31.8 put 75 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 4581 vs OI 1085, ratio 4.2, likely bought. Bearish read due to high demand for downside protection. 34.3 call 91 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3964 vs OI 763, ratio 5.2, likely bought. Bullish read; OTM call buying.

Unusual: 107.4 put 109 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 856 vs OI 235, ratio 3.6, IV 107.4% (extreme). Likely bought; bearish volatility bet. 141.4 put 114 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1053 vs OI 462, ratio 2.3, IV 141.4% (extreme). Likely bought; bearish tail risk. 47.5 call 74 ITM 2026-09-18 — Vol 1024 vs OI 260, ratio 3.9, IV 47.5%. Likely bought; bullish OTM call.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside if $77.64 breaks

!Upward if $83 reclaimed

!Vol spike from macro

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $77.00 put / buy 2026-10-16 $75.00 put Why now: Bearish bias and term structure favor selling near-term vol; calendar captures time decay while maintaining downside protection.	Downside risk if spot drops through strike; vega risk if vol expands.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00/$75.00 put spread Why now: Net short premium and unusual put buying indicate bearish sentiment; spot below MP $83 supports downside.	Max loss if spot stays above long strike; time decay if move delayed.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $79.00 put Why now: Net short premium and unusual put buying indicate bearish sentiment; spot below MP $83 supports downside.	Theta decay and time risk; requires timely move.

Top Plays

Put Diagonal

Sell 2026-08-21 $77.00 put / buy 2026-10-16 $75.00 put

Sell near-term put, buy later-dated put to profit from negative gamma and vol premium.

Why this play: Best use of bearish bias and term structure; captures time decay while hedging downside.

Debit: $0.72-$0.88

Max loss: $0.88

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $77.64; adjust if spot reclaims $83.

Traders seeking defined risk with time decay advantage.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $80.00/$75.00 put spread

Buy $80/$75 put spread to profit from decline to $77.64 support.

Why this play: Direct bearish play with defined risk; aligns with net short premium and put demand.

Debit: $1.48-$1.80

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $78.20

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes above $83; take profit near $77.64.

Traders wanting defined max loss and clear invalidation at $83.

Long Put

Buy 2026-08-21 $79.00 put

Buy $79 put to profit from downside past $77.64.

Why this play: Simple bearish bet, but higher cost and risk vs spreads.

Debit: $3.58-$4.37

Max loss: $4.37

BE: $74.63

Mgmt: Set stop at $83 invalidation; roll or exit near expiration.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot bounces to $83 resistance and closes below it → Buy NFLX 2026-07-17 $80/$75 bear put spread in entry range $1.48-$1.80

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot reclaims $83 after being below → Close or hedge the put diagonal (short $77 put / long $75 put) to cap losses

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes above $83 → Exit all bearish positions (bear put spread, long put, put diagonal)

EXITIF spot breaks below $77.64 support → Take profit on bear put spread and long put; adjust or close put diagonal

Tactical Summary

NFLX bearish bias below $83, support at $77.64. Favor defined-risk put strategies. Enter bear put spread on rejection at $83. Exit if $83 reclaimed or take profits near $77.64. Put diagonal benefits from time decay but requires monitoring above $83.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.