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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $81.41EOD only
Max Pain
$84.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.10
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+2.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
53
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
NFLX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

High vol, negative gamma, and spot below MP suggest bearish bias near-term. Dealer long delta provides floor. Target $77-75.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20 => final 7
Supports: GEX/flow alignment, high vol, negative gamma
Conflicts: Dealer long delta 130.9M, mixed flow, MP pin
📉Negative gamma $44.6M amplifies downside
⚖️Dealer long delta 130.9M supports
🎯Max pain $84; spot below suggests drift up

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical; high vol due to market move and gamma
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma; negative GEX -$44.6M amplifies direction
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; no clear directional flow
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 3.1% below max pain; implies potential reversion to $84
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative gamma and high vol support active hedging across multiple expiries; spot below MP suggests reversion but resistance above

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.31$83.52
Negative gamma and below MP bias lower within range
Next 1 week
$78.04$84.78
Support $78, resistance $84.78; bias lower but bounce possible
Next 2 weeks
$77.00$85.83
Range $77-$85.83; gamma flip $75 limits downside

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $84 (2026-06-12); $90 (2026-06-18); $85 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.31/$83.52; 1w $78.04/$84.78
Support: $77.00 · $75.00
Resistance: $84.00 · $85.83
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 67,483 (7.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: $77, $75 (gamma flip). Resistance: $84 (max pain 6/12), $85.83 (2w high).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-44.6M

DEX: +130.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 67,483 (7.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma -$44.6M (negative). Dealers long +130.9M shares delta; negative gamma forces hedging amplifying declines.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 19.87 due to high vol regime; options are rich.

Term structure: Likely contango; no event kinks noted.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts at support or buying puts on break of $78.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium $20.85M, put/call vol 0.59, OI 0.81.

Directional prints: 47 call 74 ITM 2026-09-18 — Vol 1024 vs OI 260, IV 47%. Large call buying suggests bullish sentiment, but may be sold. 80.1 put 109 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 856 vs OI 255, IV 80%. Large put buying indicates bearish hedging, but could be covered. 32.6 call 88 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3264 vs OI 1075, IV 32.6%. Aggressive call buying, possible closing or opening.

Unusual: 47 call 74 ITM 2026-09-18 — Highest vol/OI ratio 3.9, IV 47%. Unusual call activity. 80.1 put 109 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.4, IV 80%. Unusual put activity, high IV. 32.6 call 88 OTM 2026-06-26 — Largest volume 3264, vol/OI 3.0. Unusual call trade.

Risks & Catalysts

!Dealer hedging reversal
!Spot rally to max pain $84
!VIX spike increases IV

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00/$70.00 put spread
Why now: Thesis expects downside to $75-77. Bear put spread offers defined risk and benefits from time decay of short put while long put profits from decline.
Risk of rally above short strike; max loss limited to debit paid. IV crush may hurt long put but short helps.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put
Why now: Direct bearish expression with limited downside (premium). High vol environment favors puts if decline materializes.
Time decay and IV crush if stock doesn't decline quickly. Full loss of premium if wrong.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$90.00 call spread
Why now: Call credit spread profits if stock stays below short strike. High implied vol boosts premium, good for bearish-neutral view.
Risk of sharp rally above short strike; defined max loss. IV expansion on rally could hurt.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00/$70.00 put spread
Profits from decline with limited downside.
Why this play: Defined risk, direct bearish, targets $75-77.
Debit: $0.82-$1.00
Max loss: $1.00
BE: $74.00
Mgmt: Exit near target; adjust if above short strike.
Directional bears with defined risk preference.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $75.00 put
Simple bearish play with limited risk.
Why this play: Unlimited profit potential on sharp drop, but higher premium.
Debit: $1.48-$1.81
Max loss: $1.81
BE: $73.19
Mgmt: Use stop-loss; roll if time decay hurts.
Aggressive bears expecting large move.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$90.00 call spread
Bearish-neutral; profits from stagnation.
Why this play: Captures premium in high IV, less aggressive.
Credit: $1.24-$1.51
Max loss: $3.49
BE: $86.51
Mgmt: Close early to avoid gamma risk.
Cautious bears seeking theta decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFNFLX breaks below $77 → Buy 2026-07-17 $75/$70 bear put spread for $0.82-$1.00.
IFNFLX drops to $75 → Buy 2026-07-17 $75 put for $1.48-$1.81.
IFNFLX rallies to $84 but stays below → Sell 2026-07-17 $85/$90 call spread for $1.24-$1.51.
Exit Triggers
EXITNFLX closes above $84 → Close all bearish positions.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias targeting $77-75; resistance at $84. Entry triggers on breakdown to $77 or $75, or failure at $84. Exit if spot reclaims $84. Use bear put spread for defined risk, long put for aggressive, call credit spread for theta decay.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.