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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $87.68EOD only

Max Pain

$89.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.14

2.4% from close

Price Gap

+1.32

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $100-$105. Confidence: 7.5/10. Strong GEX pinning (+$207.3M) and net premium +$50.9M support a grind higher, but spot is 4.1% above max pain ($95) and IV is high (50.3%), creating resistance near EM bounds.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP

Supports: GEX +$207.3M (pinning), net premium +$50.9M (P/C vol 0.84), near-term GEX concentration at $99-$101
Conflicts: Spot above MP ($95), high IV (50.3%) limits upside momentum, call OI wall $105-$125

📊GEX +$207.3M pins spot near $100

⚠️Spot 4.1% above MP ($95) creates gravitational pull

📈Net premium +$50.9M with P/C vol 0.84 indicates bullish flow

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 50.3% — high vs historical, elevated ahead of earnings (4/16)

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$207.3M concentrated near spot ($99-$101), pinning regime

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$50.9M with P/C vol 0.84 — mixed but net bullish

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above MP by 4.1% ($98.93 vs $95)

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder flat (~$95 across expirations), GEX sign stable positive, flow regime consistent — pinning likely persists through April expirations

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$90.38$107.48

GEX pinning dominates; <$97 invalidates

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $95 (2026-04-10); $92 (2026-04-17); $94 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails:

Support: $97.00 · $95.00 · $92.00

Resistance: $101.00 · $105.00 · $110.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,174 (26.2% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $105-$125 caps upside; put floor $73-$73 (gamma flip) distant but structural

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+207.3M

DEX: +145.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,174 (26.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated at $99-$101; dealer hedging buys dips, sells rallies

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 50.3% — high, rich ahead of earnings

Term structure: Humped — 4/17 56.4% > 4/24 49.1% > 5/1 45.5% (earnings kink)

Skew: 4/17 vs 5/1 ~11 vol-pt differential (sell 56.4%, buy 45.5%)

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$50.9M bullish; P/C vol 0.84

Directional prints: call 103 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 14,165 vs OI 1,560 (9.1x) — likely bought calls for upside put 97 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 11,217 vs OI 2,186 (5.1x) — likely sold puts for premium

Unusual: 35.4 put 99 ITM 2026-04-10 — Vol 8,352 vs OI 573 (14.6x) — likely covered put selling or hedging

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 4/16 — IV crush risk

!Spot above MP ($95) — gravitational pull down

!Gamma flip at $73 — distant but structural break

!High IV (50.3%) — limits premium-selling edge

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $98.93	MP pull to $95, high IV limits upside
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — GEX positive, net premium bullish	Pinning upward
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares, sell $105 call 4/24	Upside capped at $105, earnings IV crush
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $95/$90 put spread 4/24	Break below $95
Long calls	Moderate	Buy $100 call 4/24	High IV (49.1%), pinning limits move
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Weak	Avoid — GEX positive, flow bullish	Pinning upward
Iron condor	Moderate	$95/$90P x $105/$110C 4/24	GEX positive but VIX high (implied >28) — moderate edge
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Sell 4/17 $100 call (56.4% IV), buy 5/1 $100 call (45.5% IV) — regular calendar	Earnings move breaks structure
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2027-01-15 $80 call, sell 4/24 $105 call	Time decay on short leg, pinning

Top Plays

Calendar Spread

Sell 4/17 $100 call, buy 5/1 $100 call

Sell high IV (56.4%) ahead of earnings, buy lower IV (45.5%) — +11 vol-pt edge

Debit: $0.50-$1.00

Max loss: $0.50

BE: $100.50

Mgmt: Close after earnings IV crush; stop if spot >$105

Traders seeking defined-risk vol decay play

Put Spread

Sell $95/$90 put spread 4/24

Defined-risk premium collection below max pain, GEX pinning supports

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $93.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% max profit; roll if spot <$95

Defined-risk bulls wanting income below pin

Covered Call

Buy shares at $98.93, sell $105 call 4/24

Income generation with upside to call OI wall; extra time (18 DTE) improves premium vs weekly

Credit: $3.00-$3.50

Max loss: unlimited below cost basis

BE: $95.93

Mgmt: Hold through earnings; consider rolling if challenged

Shareholders or new buyers wanting yield

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $97 and holds 1 hour → Sell $95/$90 put spread 4/24

IFIV term structure steepens (4/17 IV >60%) → Sell 4/17 $100 call, buy 5/1 $100 call

Exit Triggers

EXITEarnings IV crush (4/17 IV drops 20+ points) → Close calendar spread for profit

EXITSpot tags $110 (call OI wall) → Take profit on covered calls

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: bullish pin toward $100-$105 with multi-week duration. Invalidation: <$95. Regime favors selling premium around the pin (put spreads, covered calls) and calendar spreads for vol decay. Top plays: calendar (vol traders), put spread (defined-risk bulls), covered call (shareholders).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.