Home Options MSFTReports

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $421.06EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.28

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-6.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.46

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by dealer gamma +$321.7M and bullish flow. Spot pinned near $420 max pain, resistance $441/$450 caps upside. Low VIX favors drift to $432-$441 over 1-2 weeks. Event-specific thesis, high confidence.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17 = 9/10.

Supports: Bullish flow, dealer long gamma, spot at pivot, low VIX.
Conflicts: Resistance $441/$450, neutral vol, no earnings catalyst.

🟢Dealer gamma +$321.7M supports pin near $420.

🔴Resistance $441 likely caps sharp rallies.

🟡Spot 0.3% from MP implies low gamma slippage.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal vs VIX=17, typical range.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$321.7M positive, pinning regime.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at max pain ~$420, reinforces pinning.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry pinning (5/20, 5/22, 5/26).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$412.78$429.33

Pinned near $420; range $412-$429.

Next 1 week

$410.01$432.11

Drift to $432 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$400.73$441.38

Test $441 upper bound.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-20); $415 (2026-05-22); $410 (2026-05-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $412.78/$429.33; 1w $410.01/$432.11

Support: $420.00 · $400.73

Resistance: $441.38 · $450.00

Structural: Max pain: $420 (5/20) $415 (5/22) $410 (5/26). EM guardrails: 2d $412.78/$429.33; 1w $410.01/$432.11. Support $420, $400.73; Resistance $441.38, $450.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+321.7M

DEX: +84.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$321.7M, DEX +84.9M shares, gamma flip N/A. Positive gamma supports range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV normal relative to VIX 17; no premium to sell.

Term structure: Flat term structure; no event kinks.

Skew: Skew neutral; best vol trade: short upside call spreads near resistance.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $470M, put/call vol ratio 0.28, bullish.

Directional prints: 7.9 call 420 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 136k vs OI 5.6k (24x), likely bought, bullish. 5.9 call 422.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 52k vs OI 5.5k (9.5x), bought, bullish. 14.1 call 417.5 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 44k vs OI 1.3k (35x), aggressive buy, bullish.

Unusual: 40.7 call 412.5 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 62x, ITM call sweep, bullish. 20.7 call 415 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 33k vs OI 1.2k (27x), ITM call buying, bullish. 7.6 put 417.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 20.5k near zero premium, possibly sold/hedge, neutral.

Risks & Catalysts

!VIX spike above 20 reverses flow thesis

!Break below $400 invalidates bullish structure

!Earnings or macro catalyst not in data

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-05 $425.00/$435.00 call spread Why now: Dealer gamma supports $420, low VIX favors upside. Buy 420c, sell 435c.	Capped upside; theta decay if move delayed.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $405.00/$395.00 put spread Why now: Max pain $420, dealer gamma bullish. Sell 415p, buy 405p.	Break below $410 tests spread.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-12 $425.00 call Why now: Volume spike on 420c, bullish flow, low IV. 420c 23dte.	Time decay if no move; theta negative.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-12 $430.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $405.00 put Why now: Low VIX, bullish flow. Sell 410p, buy 430c.	Uncapped downside if break below 410.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $405.00 cash-secured put Why now: Support $420, sell 415p to collect premium.	Assignment risk if stock drops below strike.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $425.00/$435.00 call spread

Buy $425 call, sell $435 call to express bullish view with limited risk.

Why this play: Aligned with bullish bias and capped upside target $435; defined risk, low cost.

Debit: $3.04-$3.71

Max loss: $3.71

BE: $428.71

Mgmt: Exit at $435 if reached or close 3 days before expiry.

Traders targeting $432-$441 with defined risk and low theta decay.

Long Call

Buy 2026-06-12 $425.00 call

Buy $425 call to capture upside with unlimited gain potential.

Why this play: Higher leverage for strong bullish conviction; benefits from low IV and flow.

Debit: $9.52-$11.63

Max loss: $11.63

BE: $436.63

Mgmt: Set stop at $9 premium loss or trail as price rises.

Aggressive traders expecting a sharp move above $435.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $405.00/$395.00 put spread

Sell $405 put, buy $395 put to collect premium with defined risk.

Why this play: Neutral-bullish play capitalizing on support at $420 and low VIX.

Credit: $1.70-$2.07

Max loss: $7.93

BE: $402.93

Mgmt: Close if price approaches $405 or 50% of max profit.

Traders expecting price to stay above $405, collecting theta decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf MSFT pulls back to $420 support and holds above $420 → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-06-05 $425.00/$435.00 call spread.

IFIf MSFT holds above $420 and VIX remains low, and bullish flow persists → Enter long call: buy 2026-06-12 $425.00 call.

IFIf MSFT stays above $405 and we expect neutral-bullish drift → Enter put credit spread: sell 2026-06-05 $405.00/$395.00 put spread.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf MSFT reaches $441.38 resistance → Take partial profits on bull call spread and long call.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf MSFT breaks below $400.73 support → Exit all bullish positions (bull call spread, long call, put credit spread).

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with dealer gamma support at $420. Target $432-$441. Entry on pullback to $420 or hold above $420. Invalidation below $400.73. Use defined risk plays: bull call spread, long call, put credit spread.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.