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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $405.21EOD only

Max Pain

$405.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.38

1.8% from close

Price Gap

-0.21

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.48

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias, GEX/flow aligned, low VIX. Risks: resistance $428, tech rotation.

Confidence:

9 / 10

GEX/flow +2, GEX pinning +1, spot/MP +0.5, VIX +1. Base 5, total 9.5.

Supports: GEX, flow, spot/MP, low VIX
Conflicts: Resistance $428, no flip support

📈GEX/flow aligned

📌Pinning $405

🔴Resistance $428

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV, VIX 17 low env.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +163.9M positive, pinning.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP 1.1%.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Monthly expiry 5/15.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$403.90$414.95

Target upper $414.95

Next 1 week

$397.73$421.13

Consolidation $397-$421

Next 2 weeks

$390.68$428.18

Watch $428 resistance

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $405 (2026-05-15); $410 (2026-05-18); $405 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $403.90/$414.95; 1w $397.73/$421.13

Support: $405.00 · $390.68

Resistance: $428.18 · $450.00

Structural: Pins: $405(5/15),$410(5/18),$405(5/20). Guardrails: 2d $403.9/$414.95,1w $397.73/$421.13. S:$405,$390.68. R:$428.18,$450. No flip.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+163.9M

DEX: +83.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$163.9M, DEX +83.8M, no flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Normal, VIX 17.

Term structure: Flat.

Skew: Call side, sell put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$3.58M with put/call vol ratio 0.35, strongly bullish call buying.

Directional prints: 24.4 call 415 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 58,434 vs OI 8,397 (ratio 7.0); likely bought, targeting upside into expiration. 23.9 call 412.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 20,151 vs OI 3,367 (ratio 6.0); aggressive call buying, bullish sentiment.

Unusual: 43.2 call 460 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 1,017 vs OI 112 (ratio 9.1); extreme OTM call speculation, likely bought. 22.5 put 407.5 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 1,984 vs OI 236 (ratio 8.4); high put activity but OI small, possibly hedging. 112.9 put 500 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol 660 vs OI 106 (ratio 6.2); very high IV, deep OTM puts, likely sold for premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Tech rotation

!Resistance $428

!Support break $405

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-09-18 $440.00/$480.00 call spread Why now: Unusual call volume at 415C suggests institutional buying; resistance at 428; spread caps cost.	Tech rotation or resistance rejection caps profit.
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-26 $425.00 call Why now: Flow shows aggressive call buying; low VIX supports cheap premium; follow-through expected.	Time decay if flat; resistance at 428.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-09-18 $380.00/$360.00 put spread Why now: Bullish bias, support at 405, flow shows put selling.	If break below 390, defined loss.

Top Plays

Aggressive Call Buy

Buy 2026-06-26 $425.00 call

Long call captures upside momentum with defined risk

Why this play: Directly follows unusual call buying with low VIX tailwind

Debit: $9.11-$11.14

Max loss: $11.14

BE: $436.14

Mgmt: Manage at $428 resistance; consider partial profits or roll up

Aggressive traders seeking high convexity

Capped Bull Spread

Buy 2026-09-18 $440.00/$480.00 call spread

Bull call spread mitigates time decay and caps risk

Why this play: Leverages call flow while limiting cost against resistance

Debit: $8.89-$10.86

Max loss: $10.86

BE: $450.86

Mgmt: Close if below $405; target $480 if momentum holds

Moderate risk appetite

Defensive Bullish Put Spread

Sell 2026-09-18 $380.00/$360.00 put spread

Put credit spread benefits from bullish outlook and time decay

Why this play: Collects premium with bullish bias using $405 support

Credit: $5.06-$6.19

Max loss: $13.81

BE: $373.81

Mgmt: Roll if tested near $380; close if $405 support breaks

Conservative income-focused traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSFT holds above $405 support and 2d guardrail $403.9 holds → THEN buy 2026-06-26 $425.00 call near $9.11-$11.14

IFIF MSFT holds above $405 and price approaches $410 with bullish momentum → THEN enter 2026-09-18 $440.00/$480.00 call spread near $8.89-$10.86

IFIF MSFT stays above $405 support, flow continues bullish → THEN sell 2026-09-18 $380.00/$360.00 put spread near $5.06-$6.19

Exit Triggers

EXITIF MSFT breaks below $405 with volume, invalidating bullish thesis → THEN close all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with low VIX and call flow. Entry triggers rely on $405 support holding. Resistance at $428.18 may cap; manage or take partial profits there. Exit if $405 breaks. Targets: aggressive $425c, capped $440/480c spread, and income from $380/360 put credit spread.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.