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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $407.77EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.10

1.3% from close

Price Gap

+2.23

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.49

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with high confidence. Bullish flow, positive gamma pinning near $408 MP, and low VIX support upside within defined ranges.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +1 spot near MP; +1 VIX low (18). Total 9/10.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, spot at MP, low VIX.
Conflicts: Resistance $407.5 may slow upside; no gamma flip risk.

🟢Bullish flow + positive GEX aligned.

🟢Spot pinned at $408 MP, supports near-term.

⚪No gamma flip risk within 30% below spot.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol; VIX 17.87, inline with typical MSFT levels.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX ($56.6M) provides pinning support near $408 MP.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium, P/C ratio leaning calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $408, coincident with max pain for 5/13 expiry.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Gamma pinning and flow align around near-term expiries (5/13, 5/15).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$397.83$412.58

Support $398, upside to $412.58 EM guardrail.

Next 1 week

$395.68$414.73

Extend toward $414.73 on momentum.

Next 2 weeks

$385.96$424.46

Range expand to $424.46 if sustained buying.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $408 (2026-05-13); $405 (2026-05-15); $410 (2026-05-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $397.83/$412.58; 1w $395.68/$414.73

Support: $385.96

Resistance: $407.50 · $424.46

Structural: MP pins: $408 (5/13), $405 (5/15), $410 (5/18). EM guardrails: 2d $397.83-$412.58, 1w $395.68-$414.73. Support $385.96, resistance $407.5/$424.46.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+56.6M

DEX: +81.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$56.6M, DEX +81.7M shares, no gamma flip. Positive gamma supports pinning near $408.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSFT IV roughly in line with VIX (~18), consistent with normal vol regime.

Term structure: Flat near-term with slight kink around monthly expiry (5/15) reflecting event premium.

Skew: Put skew slightly elevated; no actionable skew opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Strong net call premium $54.2M; P/C vol 0.42, OI 0.48 confirms bullish.

Directional prints: 1.9 call 405 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 154.9: massive opening; likely bought; bullish. 10.5 call 402.5 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 76.1: aggressive opening; likely bought; bullish. 5.5 call 407.5 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 23.2: large volume; likely bought; bullish.

Unusual: 1.9 call 405 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 154.9 extreme; new positions; bought. 10.9 put 400 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 12.2: large put volume; possibly hedging; sold? Unusual in bull flow. 10.5 call 402.5 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 76.1: aggressive opening; bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Resistance $407.5 may cap; failure to hold $398 support could weaken bullish thesis.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call calendar	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $407.50 call / buy 2026-05-22 $407.50 call Why now: Low volatility and sideways price action favor time decay. Calendar call profits if MSFT stays near 420 through July.	If MSFT breaks above 420 before July expiration, short call loses value.
Put credit spread	Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $385.00/$380.00 put spread Why now: High call flow, low vol, support near 390-395; short-term bullish.	Upside capped at spread width; bearish move below 385.
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $420.00/$430.00 call spread Why now: Positive gamma pinning near $408, call activity strong; defined risk bullish.	Loss of premium if stock stays below long strike; resistance at $407.5.
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $425.00 call Why now: Low VIX, strong call flow, bullish bias; use 36 DTE for theta decay.	Time decay if stock does not move; resistance near $407.5.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $385.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish thesis, willing to own MSFT at discount; support at $395-390.	Stock drops below strike, obligating purchase at higher price.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $420.00/$430.00 call spread

Buy $420/$430 call spread to capture upside while limiting loss.

Why this play: Defined risk, aligns with bullish flow and gamma pinning near $408.

Debit: $1.71-$2.08

Max loss: $2.08

BE: $422.08

Mgmt: Exit at $430 or if MSFT breaks below $385.

Bullish traders seeking capped risk near support.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $385.00/$380.00 put spread

Sell $385/$380 put spread using low volatility environment.

Why this play: Collects premium with support near $390; short-term bullish.

Credit: $0.76-$0.93

Max loss: $4.07

BE: $384.07

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if MSFT falls below $385.

Moderately bullish traders wanting income.

Long Call

Buy 2026-06-18 $425.00 call

Buy 36 DTE $425 call to benefit from bullish momentum.

Why this play: Direct bet on upside with low VIX and strong call flow.

Debit: $6.59-$8.06

Max loss: $8.06

BE: $433.06

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 50% premium or roll if delta exceeds 0.5.

Aggressive traders comfortable with unlimited upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSFT holds above $385.96 support and price within $398-$408 → Enter bull call spread: buy 420/430 call spread (msft_bcs_2) at $1.71-$2.08

IFIF MSFT stays above $385.96 support → Sell put credit spread: sell 385/380 put spread (msft_pcs_1) for $0.76-$0.93

Exit Triggers

EXITIF MSFT breaks below $385.96 support → Close all bullish positions: msft_bcs_2, msft_pcs_1, msft_lc_3, msft_csp_4

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, high confidence. Key support $385.96, resistance $407.5/$424.46. Top plays ranked: bull call spread, put credit spread, long call. Enter on support hold or break of resistance. Exit if support fails. Catalyst: earnings 2026-07-29.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.