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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $417.42EOD only

Max Pain

$417.50

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.05

1.4% from close

Price Gap

+0.08

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.46

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

MSFT holds above max pain with dealer long gamma supporting near-term pinning, but spot 5.5% above MP suggests pullback risk. Bullish flow positive but price may consolidate.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive gamma pinning; -1 spot distance from MP; +0.5 moderate VIX.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive dealer gamma, support at $404.
Conflicts: Spot far above max pain, negative market context (QQQ down 1.5%), VIX elevated.

📌Max pain pinning at $400 and $408

📈Bullish flow with positive gamma

⚠️Spot 5.5% above MP, pullback risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV within normal range vs 20-day HV; no elevated vol event.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma environment with dealers pinning spot near max pain levels.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium flow positive, calls outpacing puts, supporting bullish bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain ($400) and EM guardrails; may drift lower to MP but supported by dealer gamma.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins for specific expiration dates (05/15, 05/18) suggest event-driven gamma hedging.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$413.62$430.22

Spot above EM guardrails; likely drift to pin at $408.

Next 1 week

$409.50$434.35

Range $409.50/$434.35; max pain at $408 provides support.

Next 2 weeks

$404.55$439.30

Strong support at $400; resistance at $439.3; large cap support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $400 (2026-05-15); $408 (2026-05-18); $405 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $413.62/$430.22; 1w $409.50/$434.35

Support: $404.55 · $400.00

Resistance: $439.30 · $450.00

Structural: Support: $404.55 (1w low), $400 (max pain). Resistance: $439.3 (2w high), $450. Max Pain pins: $400 (05/15), $408 (05/18), $405 (05/20).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+405.4M

DEX: +93.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma with +$405.4M GEX; positive gamma provides pinning support. No gamma flip risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSFT IV likely in line with VIX at 18.4; no rich/cheap signal.

Term structure: Term structure not available; expected contango in calm vols.

Skew: Skew data missing; no skew trade identified.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $442.9M call-heavy, P/C vol 0.23, bullish.

Directional prints: 12.3 call 427.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 76k vs OI 3.8k (ratio 19.9). Likely bought OTM calls, bullish. 25.8 call 435 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 18k vs OI 383 (ratio 47.8). Unusual call buying, upside speculation. 9.5 put 422.5 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol 30k vs OI 914 (ratio 33.3). Likely sold puts, collecting premium.

Unusual: 23.7 call 422.5 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 17.6k vs OI 401 (ratio 43.8). Aggressive call buying. 19.7 put 425 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol 27.8k vs OI 877 (ratio 31.8). Possibly sold puts as collar. 13.9 put 417.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 14.3k vs OI 542 (ratio 26.3). Deep OTM put, likely sold.

Risks & Catalysts

!Further broad market selloff

!Earnings/event risk

!Gamma flip if spot drops below $400

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $405.00/$402.50 put spread Why now: Near-term pinning expected; 400 strike has heavy put OI. Sell 400 put, buy 397.5 put for credit.	Loss if MSFT breaks below 397.5 before expiry.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $440.00/$445.00 call spread Why now: Call flow dominates; 420/430 spread cheap way to participate with limited cost.	Max loss of net debit if MSFT stays below 420.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $405.00/$402.50 put spread

Sell 405/402.5 put spread to collect credit, benefiting from time decay and low volatility

Why this play: Aligns with near-term pinning and support at 400; premium collection with defined risk

Credit: $0.48-$0.58

Max loss: $1.92

BE: $404.42

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below 404.55 or 50% of credit collected

Traders expecting consolidation with limited downside

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $440.00/$445.00 call spread

Buy 440/445 call spread to express bullish view with defined risk

Why this play: Captures upside from bullish flow while limiting cost; cheap premium

Debit: $1.21-$1.48

Max loss: $1.48

BE: $441.48

Mgmt: Manage by adjusting strike upside or rolling out if bullish thesis remains intact after earnings

Traders seeking upside exposure on potential breakout

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSFT spot holds above $404.55 support and consolidates near $405 → Sell 2026-05-29 $405/$402.50 put spread for credit 0.48-0.58

IFIF MSFT spot breaks above $439.3 resistance with bullish flow → Buy 2026-06-18 $440/$445 call spread for debit 1.21-1.48

Exit Triggers

EXITIF MSFT spot breaks below $404.55 → Close put credit spread to limit loss

EXITIF MSFT spot falls below $404.55 or profit target of 50% max gain reached → Close bull call spread

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-bullish bias using support $404.55 and resistance $439.3. Initiate put credit spread on support hold, exit on breakdown. Buy call spread on breakout, manage with tight stop.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.