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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $861.97EOD only
Max Pain
$860.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$35.45
4.1% from close
Price Gap
-1.97
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.33
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias as $816.3 trades below $855 MP and $800 gamma flip; negative GEX amplifies downside. Range $745-$888.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Base 5; +1 GEX/flow weak alignment; -0.5 spot 4.4% below MP; +0.5 VIX 18 => 6.0
Supports: Negative GEX, spot below MP and gamma flip at $800
Conflicts: Mixed flow, elevated VIX may hedge
🔻Spot $816 below $855 MP, bearish pin
⚠️Gamma flip $800, risk of acceleration
📉Dealer short gamma, prone to larger moves

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High: IV elevated vs typical, likely event/sector volatility
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending: Negative GEX -$3.5M, flip ~$800, acceleration risk
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed: No clear net direction, puts/calls balanced
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below: Spot $816.3 is 4.4% below $855 MP, bearish lean
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Gamma flip and MP pin create event-specific dynamics ahead of expiry

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$745.53$888.43
Range $745-$888; bias lower to $800-$745
Next 2 weeks
$705.33$928.63
Range $705-$928; break $800 opens $705

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $855 (2026-06-26); $885 (2026-07-02); $855 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $745.53/$888.43
Support: $800.00 · $705.33
Resistance: $855.00 · $928.63
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,307 (2.1% below spot)
Structural: Support: $800 (gamma flip), $705 (2w low). Resistance: $855 (MP), $928 (2w high).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-3.5M

DEX: +5.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,307 (2.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Next-term dealer gamma -$3.5M, flip $800; hedges amplify downside

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 18, implying elevated event/sector risk

Term structure: Near-term likely elevated; skew put-heavy (assumed)

Skew: Consider put spreads to express bearish view

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -961.6K bearish; put/call OI 1.30 confirms lingering bearish lean despite high call volume.

Directional prints: 96.4 put 650 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 3.3 vs OI 295; high IV 96.4%. Likely bought as downside protection/bearish bet; could be sold. Preferred read: bearish bought.

Unusual: 19.3 call 820 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 21x vs OI 509; low IV 19.3%. Aggressive OTM call buying; could be covered calls. Preferred read: bullish bought. 36.5 call 830 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5x vs OI 110; IV 36.5%. Likely bought as bullish speculation; could be sold. Preferred read: bullish bought. 76.8 call 900 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 2.3x vs OI 239; IV 76.8%. Lottery-like call buying; could be sold. Preferred read: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sector reversal higher
!Gamma squeeze if spot holds $800
!Vol crush post-event

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $800.00/$640.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread to capture downside to $770.
Sector reversal higher or IV crush.
Put diagonalModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-31 $740.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $800.00 put
Why now: High near-term IV vs back-month; bearish follow-through.
Stock rallies or IV stays elevated. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $800.00/$640.00 put spread
Debit spread to profit from decline to $770.
Why this play: Defined-risk capture of downside; aligns with bearish thesis and high put volume.
Debit: $61.15-$74.74
Max loss: $74.74
BE: $725.26
Mgmt: Exit above $855; adjust at $770.
Moderate bearish traders with risk cap.
#2
Put Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-31 $740.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $800.00 put
Sell short-term put, buy back-month for protection.
Why this play: Captures high near-term IV vs back-month; bearish follow-through.
Debit: $51.48-$62.92
Max loss: $62.92
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close above $800; roll if downside hits early. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Premium seekers with bearish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF LITE price breaks below $800 (gamma flip), THEN enter bear put spread (buy $800/$640 put spread) per LITE_BEAR_PUT_01. → Enter bear put spread within entry range $61-$75.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF LITE price declines to $770 target, THEN take partial profits or adjust. → Manage bear put spread: take profit or roll.
Exit Triggers
EXITIF LITE price rises above $855 resistance, THEN exit bear put spread to limit loss. → Close bear put spread position.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias: spot below $855 MP and $800 gamma flip. Key levels S=$800/$705, R=$855/$928. Top play: bear put spread (LITE_BEAR_PUT_01) entry on break below $800, exit above $855, adjust at $770.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.