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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $842.53EOD only
Max Pain
$860.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$58.80
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+17.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
1.35
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias from pinning at $860 max pain, strong GEX/flow alignment. High vol suggests breakout above $900 resistance.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive gamma pinning; +1 spot at MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Supports: GEX +$346K, spot at MP, call resistance $900
Conflicts: Mixed flow, high vol may whipsaw
📌Spot at $860 max pain – strong gamma pin
📈2d range $826-$897; $900 key resistance
⚠️Mixed flow adds uncertainty despite GEX support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical range, event-driven with VIX 19.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX +$346K, pinning at $860, gamma flip ~$850.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; put OI concentrated at $850 hedging downside.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot exactly at $860 max pain for 2026-06-26 expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming expiry on 2026-06-26 with max pain pin at $860 drives short-term direction.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$826.52$897.42
Pin at $860, test $900 resistance
Next 1 week
$773.67$950.27
Range $773-$950; breakout above $900 or below $850
Next 2 weeks
$734.47$989.47
Buy dips near $800 support, resistance $989

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $860 (2026-06-26); $900 (2026-07-02); $850 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $826.52/$897.42; 1w $773.67/$950.27
Support: $860.00 · $850.00 · $800.00
Resistance: $900.00 · $989.47
Gamma flip: ~$850.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,556 (1.4% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $860 (2026-06-26), $900 (2026-07-02), $850 (2026-07-10). EM guardrails: 2d $826.52/$897.42, 1w $773.67/$950.27. Support $860, $850, $800. Resistance $900, $989. Gamma flip $850.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+346K

DEX: +5.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$850 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,556 (1.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$346K positive, DEX +5.6M shares long. Gamma flip ~$850 from put OI concentration (3,556 contracts).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 19, elevated from event risk.

Term structure: Steep near expiry, kinks at weekly expirations.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call verticals for $900 break.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium $25.8M; P/C vol ratio 1.16 indicates put dominance.

Directional prints: 71.5 call 900 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.1, IV 71.5%; likely bought for upside, bullish. 82.7 call 915 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.8, IV 82.7%; likely bought for upside, bullish. 94.9 put 800 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 1.9, IV 94.9%; likely bought for downside, bearish.

Unusual: 71.5 call 900 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.1, IV 71.5%; likely bought for upside, bullish. 82.7 call 915 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.8, IV 82.7%; likely bought for upside, bullish. 94.9 put 800 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 1.9, IV 94.9%; likely bought for downside, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $850 gamma flip could accelerate selling
!Mixed flow may cap upside
!High vol regime increases snap-back risk

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $900.00/$905.00 call spread
Why now: Exploits bullish bias and high IV; defined risk with upside to $885.
Full loss if LITE < $860 at expiry; but support at $860 is strong. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $860.00/$855.00 put spread
Why now: Bullish bias and GEX support at $850 make credit sale attractive.
Max loss if LITE < $830; IV high may cause early assignment risk. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread $900/$905
Buy 2026-07-02 $900.00/$905.00 call spread
Expresses bullish view with leverage through call options, targeting resistance breakout.
Why this play: Directly benefits from bullish bias and potential breakout above $900, with defined risk and high upside.
Debit: $1.26-$1.54
Max loss: $1.54
BE: $901.54
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $860 invalidation, take profit near expiration if above $905. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders seeking high reward on breakout.
#2
Put Credit Spread $860/$855
Sell 2026-07-02 $860.00/$855.00 put spread
Expresses bullish view by selling puts at support level, collecting premium.
Why this play: Captures premium from bullish support at $860, but lower upside potential.
Credit: $2.02-$2.48
Max loss: $2.52
BE: $857.52
Mgmt: Manage at $860 invalidation, close early for profit if IV declines. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Conservative traders seeking income with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF LITE breaks above $900 resistance with increasing volume → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $900/$905 call spread
IFIF LITE holds $860 support after testing → THEN sell 2026-07-02 $860/$855 put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF LITE breaks below $850 gamma flip → THEN close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, pinning at $860 max pain and $900 resistance. High IV supports breakout. Top plays: bull call spread on $900 break, put credit spread at $860 support. Risk: $850 gamma flip invalidates.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.