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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $827.92EOD only
Max Pain
$867.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$68.90
8.3% from close
Price Gap
+39.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
1.38
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
3.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish near-term bias on negative dealer gamma, spot below max pain, and weak tech market. Key attention on gamma flip at $800. Short-term downside likely toward $800 support, but $860 pin could slow declines.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
Base 5 adjusted: -1 for GEX/flow contradiction, +0.5 for VIX elevated; final 4.5 reflects moderate bearish conviction.
Supports: Negative dealer gamma amplifies downside; weak QQQ (-0.42%) and VIX 18.6; spot below $860 max pain.
Conflicts: Positive dealer delta (+5.7M) may provide support; pin to $860 or rally to $900 possible; VIX not extreme.
📉Negative dealer gamma ($-1.8M) amplifies downside moves; flip at $800.
🎯Max pain $860 for 6/26 OPEX; spot below may drag toward $800 gamma flip.
📊QQQ down 0.42% with VIX 18.6; tech underperformance supports bearish bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV likely high vs VIX 18.6 due to negative gamma amplification and tech selloff, driving above-average option premiums.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma ($-1.8M) indicates trending regime; flip at $800 (from put concentration) could accelerate moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed premium flow with net neutral trader positioning; put activity concentrated at $800 and $860.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below $860 max pain; proximity to $800 gamma flip increases pin risk.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly OPEX on 6/26 and monthly on 7/2 create high gamma and pin dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$783.73$901.33
Spot below $860; negative gamma amplifies down moves; target $800 gamma flip.
Next 1 week
$743.78$941.28
OPEX pin may keep spot near $800-$860; bias lower unless rally through $860.
Next 2 weeks
$708.83$976.23
Broader support at $708.83; resistance at $900, $976.23; sustained weakness likely.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $860 (2026-06-26); $900 (2026-07-02); $855 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $783.73/$901.33; 1w $743.78/$941.28
Support: $800.00 · $708.83
Resistance: $860.00 · $900.00 · $976.23
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,322 (5.0% below spot)
Structural: Support: $800 (gamma flip), $708.83; Resistance: $860 (max pain), $900, $976.23; EM guardrails 2d $783.73-$901.33, 1w $743.78-$941.28.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.8M

DEX: +5.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,322 (5.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma (-$1.8M) and long delta (+5.7M shares). Gamma flip ~$800 from put OI. Negative gamma implies trend amplification, favoring short-term bearish breakouts below $800.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: LITE IV elevated vs VIX 18.6; negative gamma and near-term OPEX drive rich premiums, especially in put options.

Term structure: Term structure steep, with front-end vols elevated due to OPEX; back-end vols normal as event risk dissipates.

Skew: Put skew steep at $860/$900; selling put spreads at $800-and-below strikes may capture premium decay post-OPEX.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $19.6M; put-call volume ratio 1.26 suggests more puts volume but calls dominate premium.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 111.5 put 755 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 1.9; active put at 755; IV 111.5%; likely hedging or bearish bet; bought for protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside risk: Short squeeze from positive dealer delta if spot rallies above $860; max pain pin could slow bearish momentum.
!Gamma flip risk: $800 level is approximate; actual flip may differ, altering dealer hedging dynamics.
!Event risk: OPEX expiration may cause sharp vol contraction, reversing implied volatility premium plays.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $740.00/$660.00 put spread
Why now: Negative dealer gamma and weak tech market favor downside; bear put spread limits cost.
Upside risk if max pain pin at $860 holds; gamma flip at $800 can accelerate. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $740.00 put
Why now: Highest convexity for bearish view; attractive given high IV and negative gamma.
Time decay if move slow; might need precision on timing. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $740.00/$660.00 put spread
Bearish put spread aiming for $660.
Why this play: Limits cost while targeting downside, lower risk than long put.
Debit: $27.09-$33.11
Max loss: $33.11
BE: $706.89
Mgmt: Exit near target or invalidate above $860. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking defined risk bearish play.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $740.00 put
Outright put to capture downside.
Why this play: Highest convexity for strong bearish move, but higher cost.
Debit: $71.28-$87.12
Max loss: $87.12
BE: $652.88
Mgmt: Stop above $860. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Aggressive bearish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFLITE breaks below $800 (gamma flip) → Enter bear put spread (buy 2026-08-21 $740/$660 put spread at limit $27-$33)
IFLITE breaks below $800 with momentum → Enter long put (buy 2026-08-21 $740 put at limit $71-$87)
Exit Triggers
EXITLITE rallies above $860 (max pain) → Exit both bear put spread and long put

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term due to negative dealer gamma and weak tech. Enter downside plays on break below $800 gamma flip. Exit on move above $860 max pain. Target $660.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.