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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $850.00EOD only
Max Pain
$900.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$87.95
10.3% from close
Price Gap
+50.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.33
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

LITE shows cautious bearish bias: negative GEX (-$7.1M) and spot 6.2% above max pain ($800) suggest pullback risk toward $800-$850, despite tech tape. High vol and trending gamma amplify moves. Confidence moderate (4/10) due to mixed signals.

Confidence:
4 / 10
Base 5, -1 GEX/flow contradict, -1 spot 6.2% above MP, +1 VIX 16 low
Supports: Tech momentum (QQQ+2.5%); high vol/neg GEX amplify trend; resistance $969 untested
Conflicts: Spot above max pain; flow mixed; dealers long (DEX+6.8M) may cap upside; range-bound
🔴Neg Gamma: $7.1M short gamma amplifies moves
📉Max Pain Draw: Spot 6.2% above $800 pin, pullback likely
📈Tech Tailwind: QQQ +2.5% supports bulls short-term

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV relative to typical; VIX 16.4 supports elevated single-stock vol
Gamma Regime
Trending
Neg GEX -$7.1M (short gamma) trending; flip at ~$800 (5.9% below spot)
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow; no clear directional signal from premium
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$850 6.2% above max pain $800; at weekly midpoint
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins at $800, $900, $940 near expiry; high vol and neg gamma drive moves toward pins

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$762.05$937.95
Spot at mid-range; bias toward lower bound of $762 (EM 1w low)
Next 2 weeks
$730.90$969.10
Wider range; gamma flip at $800 key support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $800 (2026-06-18); $900 (2026-06-26); $940 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 1w $762.05/$937.95
Support: $850.00 · $800.00 · $730.90
Resistance: $969.10
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,745 (5.9% below spot)
Structural: Support 850, 800 (gamma flip), 730.9; Resistance 969.1; Max pain $800 (Jun18), $900 (Jun26), $940 (Jul2); EM 1w $762-$938

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.1M

DEX: +6.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,745 (5.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$7.1M, DEX +6.8M shares; gamma flip ~$800 (6,745 put OI, 5.9% below spot)

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: High IV vs VIX 16.4; rich premium, avoid long vol

Term structure: Data not available; typical contango assumed given high IV

Skew: Skew data not available; near max pain, puts may be favored for downside, but uncertain

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $32.3M despite 1.20 P/C vol ratio, large call notional.

Directional prints: 83.7 call 950 OTM 2026-06-26 — 10.7x vol/OI, IV 83.7%: likely bought calls (bullish) vs sold; prefer bought. 20.5 call 870 OTM 2026-06-18 — 4.9x vol/OI, low IV: likely bought calls (bullish) vs sold; prefer bought.

Unusual: 83.7 call 950 OTM 2026-06-26 — 10.7x vol/OI, high IV: unusual large call volume. 88.2 put 730 OTM 2026-07-17 — 3.2x vol/OI, high IV: unusual put activity; possibly hedging. 20.5 call 870 OTM 2026-06-18 — 4.9x vol/OI, low IV: unusual call sweep.

Risks & Catalysts

!QQQ momentum reversal
!Spot breaks support $850
!Gamma flip at $800 triggers acceleration
!Event risk from earnings or macro

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $850.00/$800.00 put spread
Why now: Bear put spread profits from downside move to $800-$850 with defined risk.
Spot may hold support; time decay works against if slow drift.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $850.00 put
Why now: Negative GEX and spot above max pain support downside.
Time decay and volatility crush if spot stabilizes.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $850.00/$800.00 put spread
Profits from $850-$800 decline with capped risk.
Why this play: Defined-risk bearish play exploiting negative GEX and spot above max pain.
Debit: $22.91-$28.00
Max loss: $28.00
BE: $822.00
Mgmt: Exit near $800 or on gamma flip; stop if above $969.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure amid mixed signals.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $850.00 put
Unlimited profit from downside beyond $850.
Why this play: Higher upside if pullback accelerates, but riskier given high vol.
Debit: $76.01-$92.90
Max loss: $92.90
BE: $757.10
Mgmt: Monitor vol; consider taking profit on break of $800.
Aggressive bearish traders comfortable with time decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFLITE spot breaks below $850 → Buy 1 2026-07-17 $850/$800 bear put spread for $22.91-$28.00 credit range.
IFLITE spot drops to $850 → Buy 1 2026-07-17 $850 put for $76.01-$92.90 debit range.
Exit Triggers
EXITLITE spot reaches $800 (gamma flip) → Close bear put spread or take profit.
EXITLITE spot exceeds $969.1 → Exit all bearish positions.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias; target $800-$850. Use bear put spread; exit near $800 or above $969.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.