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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $875.36EOD only
Max Pain
$800.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$55.90
6.4% from close
Price Gap
-75.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
51
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.32
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias for LITE due to negative dealer gamma and high vol regime targeting $850-$800 supports, but spot above max pain and mixed flow limit conviction.

Confidence:
3.5 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -1 spot 8.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18 -> 3.5
Supports: Negative gamma, high vol, downside levels $850/$800
Conflicts: Spot above MP, mixed flow, positive dealer delta
🚨High IV regime amplifies option premium and sharp moves
📉Negative GEX (-$3.3M) amplifies downside
🎯Max pain $800 for Jun18 expiration pulls spot
📊Put OI at $800 supports key level

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: IV elevated vs typical range vs VIX 18.44
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: -$3.3M GEX, flip at ~$800
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: net premium unclear, put/call ratio hedged
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above MP ($800) by ~8.7%, pin at $890/$940
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple expirations (Jun18, Jun26, Jul2) drive event-driven trading

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$833.28$906.68
Gamma flip risk, target $850-$833
Next 1 week
$767.43$972.53
Wider range to $767, max pain pull
Next 2 weeks
$738.78$1001.18
Structural resistance $1001, support $738

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $800 (2026-06-18); $890 (2026-06-26); $940 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $833.28/$906.68; 1w $767.43/$972.53
Support: $850.00 · $800.00 · $738.78
Resistance: $1001.18
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,751 (8.0% below spot)
Structural: Max Pain $800 (Jun18), $890 (Jun26), $940 (Jul2); EM 2d $833/$906, 1w $767/$972; Support $850/$800/$738; Resistance $1001; Gamma flip ~$800

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-3.3M

DEX: +6.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,751 (8.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$3.3M (short gamma), DEX +6.7M shares (long delta); dealers amplify directional moves

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18.44; elevated vol premium reflects event risk

Term structure: Steep near-term due to pin expiries, flattening thereafter

Skew: Elevated put skew; put credit spreads near $800 support are viable

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$22.1M (net call buying) despite put volume ratio 1.28, indicating positioning for upside.

Directional prints: 88.5 call 910 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.0x, high volume; net call buying aligns with positive net premium, likely bullish. 90.1 put 800 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.6x, elevated; put buying may hedge or speculate downside despite overall net call bias.

Unusual: 88.5 call 910 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.0x, significant unusual activity; new call positions. 90.1 put 800 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.6x, unusual put volume; potential bearish stance. 87 put 785 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.7x, moderate unusual; OTM puts suggest downside protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative gamma exacerbates moves
!Spot far from gamma flip $800
!Mixed flow signals uncertainty
!High vol may persist

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $860.00/$760.00 put spread
Why now: Net call buying and high vol suggest potential downside, but limited conviction warrants defined risk.
Time decay if spot remains above breakeven; negative gamma could exacerbate moves. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Call credit spreadWeak
Sell 2026-08-21 $1190.00/$1210.00 call spread
Why now: Mixed flow and high vol favor premium capture; limited upside tail risk.
Short call exposes to early assignment if spot rallies; defined risk limits loss. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Defined Risk Bearish Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $860.00/$760.00 put spread
Expresses bearish view via put spread, targeting downside from high volatility and negative gamma.
Why this play: Directly aligns with bearish thesis and negative gamma regime, managing risk with defined max loss.
Debit: $42.48-$51.92
Max loss: $51.92
BE: $808.08
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if price breaches invalidation level. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure with low liquidity tolerance.
#2
Premium Capture Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $1190.00/$1210.00 call spread
Sells out-of-the-money call spread to collect premium in high vol environment.
Why this play: Capitalizes on high IV and limited upside tail risk, yet mixed flow reduces conviction.
Credit: $1.62-$1.98
Max loss: $18.02
BE: $1191.98
Mgmt: Monitor for early assignment; close if delta rises sharply. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Income-focused traders comfortable with mild bullish risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF price breaks below $850 support → THEN buy 2026-08-21 $860/$760 bear put spread
IFIF price rallies to $1001.18 resistance and shows rejection → THEN sell 2026-08-21 $1190/$1210 call credit spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF price nears gamma flip at $800 → THEN close bear put spread for 50% profit
EXITIF price closes above $1001.18 → THEN exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias due to negative dealer gamma and high vol targeting $850-$800 supports. Spot above max pain ($800) and mixed flow limit conviction. Key support $850, gamma flip $800, resistance $1001. Preferred defined-risk play: bear put spread on break below $850. Call credit spread on rejection at $1001. Low liquidity in both, size accordingly.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.