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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $893.93EOD only
Max Pain
$875.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$79.55
8.9% from close
Price Gap
-18.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
1
Low premium
P/C OI
1.44
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish near-term bias driven by QQQ weakness and high vol. Spot ~$828 below max pain $868; negative gamma -$2.7M with flip near $800 accelerates downside. Elevated VIX (19.5) supports put skew. Duration: multi-week due to rolling OPEX events.

Confidence:
4 / 10
Base 5; GEX/flow contradiction -1; spot -4.6% from MP -0.5; VIX 19 tailwind +0.5 → net 4.0. No override needed.
Supports: QQQ -3.3%, VIX 19.5, high vol regime, negative gamma, spot below MP.
Conflicts: Mixed flow (calls active), wide range support $800, potential bounce off gamma flip.
🐻QQQ breakdown driving tech selloff; LITE tagging lower support.
⚠️Negative gamma -$2.7M with flip near $800; test likely within 2 days.
📈IV rich vs VIX; put calendar spreads capitalize on steep skew.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV relative to typical range due to sector selloff; VIX 19.5 supports elevated options premium.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma -$2.7M; trending regime indicates momentum likely to continue. Flip near $800.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium — puts dominate but call activity persists. Overall flow not decisively bearish.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$828, 4.6% below near-term max pain $868 (June 26). Pin weakens below MP.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Three distinct OPEX cycles (June 26, July 2, July 10) create structural gamma pivots, extending directional thesis beyond single event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$759.02$896.82
QQQ momentum and negative gamma favor test of $800 gamma flip.
Next 1 week
$720.12$935.72
Gamma flip at $800 likely triggers accelerated move lower if broken.
Next 2 weeks
$689.22$966.62
Multiple OPEX cycles may cause pinning near $689-800 support. Wide range likely.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $868 (2026-06-26); $910 (2026-07-02); $860 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $759.02/$896.82; 1w $720.12/$935.72
Support: $800.00 · $689.22
Resistance: $867.50 · $900.00 · $966.62
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,312 (3.4% below spot)
Structural: Support: $800 (gamma flip), $689 (2w low). Resistance: $867.5 (max pain), $900, $966.6 (2w high). EM guardrails: 2d $759-$897, 1w $720-$936.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.7M

DEX: +5.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,312 (3.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net gamma -$2.7M; long delta +5.7M shares. Gamma flip ~$800 (approx from put OI concentration). Negative gamma amplifies directional moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: LITE IV elevated vs VIX 19.5 — vol rich on a relative basis, suggesting options are expensive. Bearish put premium priced in.

Term structure: Forward skew steep; nearest expiry (June 26) shows elevated IV due to event risk. Back month premiums decay, favoring calendar spreads.

Skew: Put skew steep; opportunity in put calendars (sell near-term, buy back) to capture time decay while hedging downside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium bullish at $21.5M with more call volume (P/C 0.88) but put OI higher (1.38).

Directional prints:

Unusual: 106.7 call 1000 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.2, IV 106.7%, high relative volume. Likely aggressive bought call, bullish. 99.1 call 1500 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 2.1, IV 99.1%, large premium ($80). Likely long-term bought call, bullish. 104.3 call 935 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 1.9, IV 104.3%, moderate relative volume. Likely bought call, bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings or catalyst surprise (no dates in input) could reverse trend.
!Gamma flip at $800 may act as support; bounce could trigger short squeeze.
!QQQ rally reversing would negate bearish thesis.
!Mixed flow dampens conviction in sustained downside.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $800.00/$720.00 put spread
Why now: QQQ weakness, negative gamma, high vol favor put buying; spread limits cost.
Gamma flip at $800 could cause bounce; spread caps profit.
Long putWeak
Buy 2026-07-10 $780.00 put
Why now: Near-term weakness and negative gamma make long puts attractive for convexity.
Time decay accelerates; bounce at $800 causes sharp loss. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $970.00/$1050.00 call spread
Why now: Max pain at $868 acts as resistance; high IV inflates call premiums.
QQQ rally could breach wing; limited profit.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $800.00/$720.00 put spread
Buy put spread to profit from downside with limited capital at risk.
Why this play: Best fit for bearish near-term bias and high vol; defined risk with good liquidity.
Debit: $28.35-$34.65
Max loss: $34.65
BE: $765.35
Mgmt: Exit if stock rallies above $867.5 or hold to expiration.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $970.00/$1050.00 call spread
Sells call spread to profit from capped upside.
Why this play: Captures premium from resistance at max pain; high IV boosts credit.
Credit: $13.05-$15.95
Max loss: $64.05
BE: $985.95
Mgmt: Close early if stock breaks above $867.5.
Income-focused bearish views.
#3
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-10 $780.00 put
Direct bearish bet with convex payoff.
Why this play: Highest convexity but liquidity risk; included as third option.
Debit: $42.12-$51.48
Max loss: $51.48
BE: $728.52
Mgmt: Active management; roll if momentum shifts. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders accepting lower liquidity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFLITE breaks below $800 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $800/$720 bear put spread (LITE_BEAR_PUT_SPREAD_001) for $28.35-$34.65
IFLITE holds below $867.5 for 1 week → Sell 2026-07-17 $970/$1050 call credit spread (LITE_CALL_CREDIT_SPREAD_003) for $13.05-$15.95
Exit Triggers
EXITLITE rallies above $867.5 resistance → Close bear put spread or long put (LITE_BEAR_PUT_SPREAD_001/LITE_LONG_PUT_002)

Tactical Summary

Bearish on LITE: QQQ weakness, negative gamma -$2.7M, high vol. Key levels: support $800 (gamma flip), resistance $867.5 (max pain). Favor bear put spread or call credit spread; exit above $867.5.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.