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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $921.56EOD only
Max Pain
$800.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$89.65
9.7% from close
Price Gap
-121.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by positive gamma pinning and strong flow alignment, but spot far above max pain poses mean-reversion risk. Overall constructive with caution.

Confidence:
8 / 10
GEX/flow strongly aligned (+2), positive gamma pinning (+1), but spot 19.7% above MP (-1) keeps confidence at 8.
Supports: Positive GEX $1.8M; DEX +6.6M shares; flow mixed but put OI concentrated downside.
Conflicts: Spot 19.7% above max pain $800; gamma flip at $800; high vol regime.
📌Max pain pinning at $800, $880, $950 across expiries.
⚠️Spot 19.7% above MP, risk of mean reversion.
📈GEX +$1.8M positive, supports upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs VIX 16.2, consistent with vol classification.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma $1.8M, pinning near max pain but gamma flip at $800.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium, put OI concentration 16.4% below spot.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot 19.7% above max pain ($800), above MP.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiry cycles (Jun18, Jun26, Jul2) and structural gamma positioning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$878.54$1035.94
Within guardrails $878.54/$1035.94.
Next 2 weeks
$799.29$1115.19
Resistance at $1115, support $799.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $800 (2026-06-18); $880 (2026-06-26); $950 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $878.54/$1035.94
Support: $900.00 · $799.29
Resistance: $1000.00 · $1115.19
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,305 (16.4% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $800 (18Jun), $880 (26Jun), $950 (2Jul). 2d guardrails $878.54/$1035.94. Support $900/$799.29, resistance $1000/$1115.19. Gamma flip ~$800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.8M

DEX: +6.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,305 (16.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.8M, DEX +6.6M shares. Gamma flip ~$800 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV high relative to VIX 16.2, indicating elevated option premiums.

Term structure: Likely contango given multiple expiries; no kinks observed.

Skew: Put OI concentration suggests downside protection demand; no actionable skew opportunity identified.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $123M positive indicates strong net buying despite higher put volume ratio.

Directional prints: 99.6 call 1020 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 21.7, aggressive call buying; interpreted as bullish bet on upside.

Unusual: 99.6 call 1020 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 21.7, new positions; likely bought, bullish. 337.5 put 300 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.5, low premium; could be sold for yield or bought as cheap downside hedge. 110.2 put 810 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.8; opening activity; likely bought puts hedging or bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 19.7% above max pain may trigger mean reversion.
!Gamma flip at $800 could accelerate downside.
!Mixed flow lacks a clear directional catalyst.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-10 $930.00/$1120.00 call spread
Why now: Flow and gamma pinning support upside; spread limits downside.
Max loss is net debit; move below spread hurts. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $1000.00 call
Why now: Aggressive call buying and low put/call ratio signal upside.
Time decay and vol crush erode premium if move delayed.
Call calendarModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-07-10 $1000.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1000.00 call
Why now: IV elevated; term structure supports calendar edge with bullish bias.
Sharp move in either direction hurts; max loss if stock far from short strike.

Top Plays

#1
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-17 $1000.00 call
Buy 2026-07-17 $1000 call to capture bullish momentum with limited downside risk.
Why this play: Strong call buying flow and low put/call ratio signal upside; unlimited gain potential with active liquidity.
Debit: $81.36-$99.44
Max loss: $99.44
BE: $1099.44
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $900 invalidation; take partial profits on 2x gain.
Aggressive traders seeking high upside with defined risk.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $930.00/$1120.00 call spread
Buy $930/$1120 call spread for defined risk/reward with bullish bias.
Why this play: Limits downside while maintaining upside exposure; positive gamma pinning supports target range.
Debit: $61.78-$75.52
Max loss: $75.52
BE: $1005.52
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $900; hold to near expiration for max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Moderate-conviction traders wanting capped risk and reward.
#3
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $1000.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1000.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later expiration to exploit volatility premium.
Why this play: Elevated IV and term structure favor calendar; benefits from time decay if spot stays near strike.
Debit: $61.34-$74.97
Max loss: $74.97
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Manage gamma risk; adjust if spot moves significantly past $1000.
Traders expecting sideways or mild upside with vol contraction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot pulls back to $900-920 and holds for 2 candles → Buy 2026-07-17 $1000 call limit $82.00
IFSpot breaks above $1000 with volume → Enter $930/$1120 bull call spread near $68.00
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes below $900 → Close all bullish positions; consider puts for breakdown

Tactical Summary

LITE bullish bias 58 days to earnings, but spot 19.7% above max pain ($800) risks mean reversion. Key levels: support $900, resistance $1000/$1115. Prefer entries on dip to $900-920 or breakout above $1000. Long call for upside, bull call spread for capped risk, call calendar for IV play. Invalidation $900.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.