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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $921.56EOD only
Max Pain
$800.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$89.65
9.7% from close
Price Gap
-121.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

LITE exhibits strong dealer gamma support near $900 max pain with positive delta. Despite mixed flow, high confidence in pinning through weekly expiry. Upside limited to $1000 resistance; downside protected by $800 put wall. Neutral-bullish bias within range.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 pinning; +1 VIX 18; strong overall alignment.
Supports: Dealer gamma positioning, max pain pin, positive delta
Conflicts: Mixed flow, vol high, spot above MP may attract selling
📌Gamma pin at $900 with $4M GEX; strong put wall at $800
⚠️Spot above max pain; potential profit-taking
📈Positive dealer delta (+6.9M shares) supports bullish bias

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated relative to realized vol, consistent with uncertainty near max pain pin.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma pinning near $900 with $+4M GEX, strong put wall at $800.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed premium flow, but net positive dealer gamma supports pinning.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot trading above $900 max pain; pinning pressure to hold near $900.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Concentration of open interest near $900 for 6/12 expiry, with additional pin levels on subsequent expiries.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$831.91$1011.21
Pin at $900 with resistance at $1000; downside support at gamma flip $787.81.
Next 2 weeks
$787.81$1055.31
Expanded range with strong put wall at $800; upside potential if $1000 broken.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $900 (2026-06-12); $800 (2026-06-18); $875 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $831.91/$1011.21
Support: $900.00 · $850.00 · $787.81
Resistance: $1000.00 · $1055.31
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,159 (13.2% below spot)
Structural: Support: $900 (max pain, pin), $850, $787.81 (gamma flip). Resistance: $1000 (round), $1055.31 (2w high). EM guardrails: 1w $831.91/$1011.21.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.0M

DEX: +6.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,159 (13.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma ($+4M GEX) with positive delta ($+6.9M shares). Gamma flip at $787.81, providing downside support. Strongest put OI concentration at $800 (13.2% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated relative to VIX (17.68), indicating rich option prices. Elevated IV likely reflects event risk around $900 pin.

Term structure: Term structure likely upward sloping into weekly expiry, with kinks around 6/12 and 6/18 expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated near $800; opportunity to sell puts at $800 strike given gamma support and pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium ~$107M, P/C vol ratio 0.87 (call-heavy), OI ratio 1.31 (put-heavy) suggests aggressive call buying.

Directional prints: 33 call 960 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 7.6, OTM call. High volume relative to OI suggests aggressive buying, likely bearish bet on upside? May be speculative. 87.1 call 940 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 5.4, ITM call. Elevated IV, large volume vs OI indicates bought, bullish directional or earnings play. 35.3 call 920 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 4.2, OTM call. Moderate vol, likely bought, bullish bet on short-term move.

Unusual: 33 call 960 OTM 2026-06-12 — Unusual 7.6x vol/OI, OTM call. Extreme volume, likely bought, speculative upside wager. 87.1 call 940 OTM 2026-06-18 — Unusual 5.4x vol/OI, ITM call. High IV, aggressive buying, directional or hedging. 26.6 call 940 OTM 2026-06-12 — Unusual 4.7x vol/OI, OTM call. Bought, small bet on upside expiration day.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broader market selloff (QQQ down) could break $900 support
!Failure to hold $900 could trigger gamma flip, accelerating decline toward $787.81
!Low volume on option expiry may lead to erratic price action

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Short strangleModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $900.00 put + sell $950.00 call
Why now: High IV and dealer gamma support range-bound price action; short strangle captures vega decay.
Unlimited tail risk if breakout above $1000 or below $800.
Bull call spreadWeak
Buy 2026-07-10 $920.00/$950.00 call spread
Why now: Call flow and dealer gamma tilt bullish; upside limited by $1000 resistance makes spread efficient.
Time decay if price stays below $920; payoff capped at $950. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $900.00 put + sell $950.00 call
Sells OTM put and call to profit from low volatility.
Why this play: Captures vega decay in range-bound price with high IV; more liquid than bull call spread.
Credit: $100.85-$123.26
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 776.74 / 1073.26
Mgmt: Close if price breaches 900 or 950.
Traders expecting neutral price action within 900-950.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $920.00/$950.00 call spread
Buys call spread to profit from moderate upside.
Why this play: Leverages bullish bias with defined risk; but lower liquidity and resistance caps upside.
Debit: $11.52-$14.08
Max loss: $14.08
BE: $934.08
Mgmt: Exit at 950 or if price falls below 900. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Traders expecting gradual rise toward 950.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf LITE trades between $900 and $950 with implied volatility elevated. → Sell 2026-06-26 $900.00 put and $950.00 call for net credit of $100-$123.
IFIf LITE holds above $900 support with bullish momentum. → Buy 2026-07-10 $920.00/$950.00 call spread for net debit of $11.52-$14.08.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf LITE breaks below $900 or above $950 for short strangle, or below $900 for bull call spread. → Close short strangle immediately; close bull call spread to limit loss to $14.08.

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bullish bias with max pin at $900. Prefer short strangle to capture high IV decay; bull call spread for upside with defined risk. Key risk: break below $900 triggers gamma flip. Manage tight stops.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.