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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $850.00EOD only
Max Pain
$900.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$87.95
10.3% from close
Price Gap
+50.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.33
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Conflicting dealer signals: DEX long (+5.4M shares) vs negative GEX (-$468K) & put OI at $850. Near-term drift to $875 max pain; break below $850 triggers gamma squeeze. Neutral bias with bearish tilt near expiry.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5; GEX/flow (-1), VIX/vol (+1) net 5. DEX not fully captured.
Supports: Max pain $875; put wall at $850; resistance $900.
Conflicts: DEX +5.4M shares positive; spot above max pain.
🐻Negative GEX pulls toward $850 put wall.
⚠️DEX+ vs GEX-: conflicting signals.
⚖️Max pain $875 near-term gravity.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high due to events & negative gamma; VIX 17.28.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$468K, gamma flip at $850 (4.9% below spot).
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed; put OI concentrated at $850.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $894 > max pain $875, room to drop.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Clustered expirations (Jun 26, Jul 2, Jul 10) & high vol.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$778.93$1008.93
Drift to $875; support $850.
Next 2 weeks
$742.38$1045.48
DEX supports upside; wait for break.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $875 (2026-06-26); $930 (2026-07-02); $870 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $778.93/$1008.93
Support: $875.00 · $850.00 · $742.38
Resistance: $900.00 · $950.00 · $1045.48
Gamma flip: ~$850.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,569 (4.9% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $875 (Jun26). Support: $875, $850. Resist: $900, $950. Gamma flip $850.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-468K

DEX: +5.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$850 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,569 (4.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$468K (short gamma). DEX +5.4M shares (long delta). Conflict implies choppy action.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17.28 from event premium.

Term structure: Backwardated with kinks at Jun26, Jul2, Jul10.

Skew: Put skew at $850; sell puts but gamma flip risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium from OTM trades; vol ratio 0.85 calls, OI 1.44 puts.

Directional prints: 107.9 call 1100 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2,074 vs OI 309 (6.7x). OTM call buy. 104.7 call 1050 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 774 vs OI 160 (4.8x). OTM call buy. 94.3 call 850 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 551 vs OI 126 (4.4x). OTM call buy.

Unusual: 107.9 call 1100 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2,074 vs OI 309 (6.7x). OTM call buy. 104.7 call 1050 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 774 vs OI 160 (4.8x). OTM call buy. 94.3 call 850 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 551 vs OI 126 (4.4x). OTM call buy.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gap risk below $850 gamma flip
!Unexpected bullish from DEX long
!Vol crush after events

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $840.00/$740.00 put spread
Why now: Negative GEX and put OI at $850; short-term bearish bias.
Upside from DEX long if bullish surprise, vol crush after earnings.
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-08-21 $700.00/$580.00 put spread
Why now: Put OI at $850 and DEX long suggest downside limited; collect premium.
Gap risk below $850, unexpected break of support.
Long callConditional
Buy 2026-08-21 $1220.00 call
Why now: 6.7x OI call buy and DEX +5.4M shares support upside potential.
Bearish GEX and put OI; limited time before earnings. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $840.00/$740.00 put spread
Bearish bet with defined risk, leveraging put concentration and dealer hedging.
Why this play: Directly targets $850 put OI & negative GEX; max profit if price declines to $740.
Debit: $38.16-$46.64
Max loss: $46.64
BE: $793.36
Mgmt: Exit if price holds above $900 or near earnings to avoid vol crush.
Traders expecting downside toward $850 strike.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $700.00/$580.00 put spread
Neutral to bullish premium capture using put OI as safety.
Why this play: Collects premium from floor at $700; supports DEX long & limited downside.
Credit: $27.14-$33.17
Max loss: $86.83
BE: $666.83
Mgmt: Close early if price drops below $750 or post-earnings.
Traders expecting price to stay above $700.
#3
Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $1220.00 call
Speculative upside with unlimited gain, but high risk from conflicting signals.
Why this play: Upside bet from unusual call volume but lowest priority due to neutral thesis and liquidity fail.
Debit: $51.12-$62.48
Max loss: $62.48
BE: $1282.48
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $875; exit before earnings if no momentum. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders with bullish conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF price closes below $875 (support) or breaks below gamma flip $850 → ENTER Bear Put Spread (buy $840/$740 put spread) at offered entry range $38.16-$46.64
IFIF price holds above $875 and neutral bias persists → ENTER Put Credit Spread (sell $700/$580 put spread) at offered entry range $27.14-$33.17
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF price rises above $900 (invalidation) or within 7 days of earnings → EXIT Bear Put Spread to avoid vol crush and max loss
ADJIF price drops below $750 or within 7 days of earnings → EXIT Put Credit Spread to protect premium
Exit Triggers
EXITIF price breaks above $950 (resistance) with strong bullish momentum → EXIT all bearish positions; consider bullish bias shift

Tactical Summary

Conflicting dealer signals: DEX long vs negative GEX & put OI. Near-term drift to $875 max pain; break below $850 triggers gamma squeeze. Neutral bias with bearish tilt. Prioritize Bear Put Spread for downside, Put Credit Spread for premium. Manage ahead of earnings to avoid vol crush.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.