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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $921.56EOD only
Max Pain
$800.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$89.65
9.7% from close
Price Gap
-121.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
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Outlook

LITE in high-vol trending regime below max pain. Short gamma and dealer long delta create asymmetry for sharp moves lower, especially into $800 gamma flip. Bearish bias with downside to $792-$750 over 1-2 weeks.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5, -1 GEX/flow contradict, +0.5 near MP, +0.5 VIX 19 = 5.0. Trending gamma and below MP support bearish.
Supports: High vol regime, trending gamma, below max pain.
Conflicts: Dealer long delta, mixed flow.
📉Below $900 max pain, bearish bias into expiry
⚠️Gamma flip at $800 key downside level
🔄Short gamma amplifies moves; caution on breakouts

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated as VIX at 19.44 and stock volatility high.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX negative at -$307K, dealer short gamma amplifies moves; gamma flip near $800 (put wall).
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow with net premium neutral; dealer long delta (DEX +6.9M) contradicts short gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain pins, nearest $900 (12Jun) indicates resistance.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins $900 (12Jun) and $800 (18Jun) drive event-based price gravitation; high vol and negative gamma suggest sharp moves into expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$846.59$932.59
Below $900 max pain, resistance at $932.59
Next 1 week
$792.34$986.84
Gamma flip at $800, support $792.34
Next 2 weeks
$750.29$1028.89
Extended downside to $750.29 if resistance holds

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $900 (2026-06-12); $800 (2026-06-18); $880 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $846.59/$932.59; 1w $792.34/$986.84
Support: $850.00 · $750.29
Resistance: $900.00 · $1028.89
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,161 (10.1% below spot)
Structural: Support: $850 (2d low), $750.29 (2w low). Resistance: $900 (max pain 12Jun), $1028.89 (2w high). Gamma flip ~$800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-307K

DEX: +6.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,161 (10.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$307K (short gamma), DEX +6.9M shares (long delta), gamma flip at ~$800 per put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich relative to VIX 19.44; elevated vol regime inflates premiums.

Term structure: Term structure likely steep with near-term volatility due to event risk (max pain expiries).

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts at $800 gamma flip may capture premium if spot stays above.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $55.6M with P/C volume ratio 1.38, indicating bearish bias from put buying outweighing call buying.

Directional prints: 115.4 put 770 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 591 vs OI 273 (2.2x), IV 115%. Likely bought puts for downside protection or bearish speculation; sellers may be taking premium. 80.6 call 875 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 170 vs OI 100 (1.7x), IV 81%. OTM calls bought; bullish directional bet with limited risk, possibly expecting rally.

Unusual: 115.4 put 770 OTM 2026-06-12 — High vol/OI (2.2x) and elevated IV. Unusual put activity near spot; likely buyer-initiated, bearish sentiment. 122 put 690 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 312 vs OI 152 (2.0x), IV 122%. High vol and IV; probably bought puts hedging downside risk. 80.6 call 875 ITM 2026-06-12 — Moderate vol/OI (1.7x) but unusual given overall bearish flow; bullish outlier in size.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $800 could accelerate sell-off
!Max pain pin at $900 may cap upside
!Dealer long delta adds downside risk if momentum reverses

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $850.00/$810.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk bearish debit spread to profit from expected sharp decline, reduces vega in high IV environment.
Max loss if stock stays above 880; time decay hurts if move is delayed. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $820.00 put
Why now: Direct bearish convexity benefiting from large downward move; unlimited profit potential below strike.
Time decay and IV contraction if move doesn't materialize; defined max loss is premium paid.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put $820
Buy 2026-06-26 $820.00 put
Buys $820 put for downside exposure, benefits from sharp moves below strike.
Why this play: Direct bearish convexity, high liquidity, unlimited upside below $820.
Debit: $36.49-$44.61
Max loss: $44.61
BE: $775.39
Mgmt: Set stop loss if LITE > $900; take partial profits below $800.
Aggressive traders expecting swift decline to $750-$792.
#2
Bear Put Spread $850/$810
Buy 2026-06-26 $850.00/$810.00 put spread
Buy $850 put, sell $810 put to profit from decline to $810.
Why this play: Defined risk, reduces vega in high IV, but lower liquidity.
Debit: $12.38-$15.13
Max loss: $15.13
BE: $834.87
Mgmt: Close if LITE bounces above $900; hold to expiry if under $810. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Traders wanting capped risk but still bearish.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFLITE closes below $850 → Buy LITE_LONG_PUT_002 (Long Put $820) near $40
IFLITE breaks below $850 with volume → Buy LITE_BEAR_PUT_SPREAD_001 ($850/$810) near $14
Exit Triggers
EXITLITE reclaims $900 → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias below $900; target $792-$750 over 1-2 weeks. Gamma flip at $800 accelerates downside. Top plays: Long Put $820 for convexity, Bear Put Spread for defined risk.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
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