thetaOwl
HomeOptionsLITEReports

LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $821.76EOD only
Max Pain
$900.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$73.15
8.9% from close
Price Gap
+78.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

LITE faces bearish pressure as high vol and negative dealer gamma amplify downside, with spot below max pain $900 and support at $850. IV rich vs VIX, term structure contango, skew favors puts. Confidence 3/10 due to mixed flow and spot distance from MP.

Confidence:
3 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -1 spot 5.2% from MP; high vol supports trend.
Supports: High IV, negative gamma, spot below key resistance $900.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, spot near support $850 could bounce.
🔻Negative GEX -$2.8M accelerates trending moves.
⚡IV high vs VIX, term structure contango.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Vol High: IV elevated vs normal range, likely due to event uncertainty and broad sell-off.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma Trending: Dealers short gamma (-$2.8M) near $800 flip, amplifying price moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow Mixed: Net premium unclear; P/C not extreme.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP: Spot ~$852, below $900 max pain, suggesting bearish pin.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiry dates and structural levels support a multi-week view.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$793.06$913.46
Range $793-$913; gamma flip at $800, short gamma favors downside.
Next 1 week
$746.36$960.16
Range $746-$960; support $800 and $707, resistance $998.
Next 2 weeks
$707.96$998.56
Range $708-$999; key support $800, resistance $998.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $900 (2026-06-12); $790 (2026-06-18); $880 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $793.06/$913.46; 1w $746.36/$960.16
Support: $850.00 · $800.00 · $707.96
Resistance: $900.00 · $998.56
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,168 (6.2% below spot)
Structural: Max Pain: $900 (6/12), $790 (6/18), $880 (6/26). Gamma flip ~$800. Support $850, $800, $708; Resistance $900, $999.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.8M

DEX: +7.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,168 (6.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma -$2.8M (NOK) with flip ~$800, amplifying moves. DEX long +7M shares.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (22.2); elevated vol indicative of event risk.

Term structure: Contango typical for high vol; near-term elevated due to upcoming expiries.

Skew: Skew puts richer; opportunity to sell downside puts given support near $800.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$40.1M, call-heavy volume (P/C vol 0.92) but put-heavy OI (1.29), recent bullish flow.

Directional prints: 98.3 call 900 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.5x, high IV 98.3%. Likely bought calls, bullish.

Unusual: 101.5 call 850 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.6x, high IV 101.5%. Likely bought calls. 105.6 call 960 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.6x, high IV 105.6%. Likely bought calls. 98.3 call 900 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.5x, high IV 98.3%. Likely bought calls.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $800 triggers dealer hedging and sharp reversals.
!Broad market weakness (SPY -1.6%, QQQ -2%) continues.
!Max pin at $900 could repel upside if rally fails.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $840.00/$700.00 put spread
Why now: Negative dealer gamma, high IV favor puts; post-earnings move expected.
Gamma flip at $800; rally above $900 loses. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $840.00 put
Why now: IV rich, skew favors puts, dealer gamma negative.
Time decay if flat; max loss on rally. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $840.00/$700.00 put spread
Buy $840/$700 put spread to profit from expected downside post-earnings.
Why this play: Defined risk, lower cost, aligns with bearish thesis and high IV.
Debit: $60.48-$73.92
Max loss: $73.92
BE: $766.08
Mgmt: Close if spot retakes $900; monitor gamma flip at $800. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking limited risk and defined payoff.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $840.00 put
Buy $840 put to capitalize on bearish bias with high IV.
Why this play: Higher upside if selloff materializes, but higher premium.
Debit: $124.92-$152.68
Max loss: $152.68
BE: $687.32
Mgmt: Set stop at $900; take profits near $800 support. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Aggressive traders with high conviction on downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf LITE closes below $850 support → Buy 2026-08-21 $840/$700 put spread
IFIf LITE rallies to $900 and reverses → Buy 2026-08-21 $840 put
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf LITE nears $800 gamma flip → Take partial profits on put spreads
Exit Triggers
EXITIf LITE reclaims $900 → Close bear put spread (Buy 2026-08-21 $840/$700 put spread)

Tactical Summary

Bearish: negative dealer gamma, high IV, support $850, resistance $900. Favor bear put spread for defined risk. Gamma flip at $800 could accelerate downside. Low confidence due to mixed flows and IV rich.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.