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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $821.76EOD only

Max Pain

$900.00

Next expiry Jun 12, 2026

Expected Move

±$73.15

8.9% from close

Price Gap

+78.24

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.31

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

LITE Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish leaning near-term: spot below max pain, negative dealer gamma, high vol. Downside acceleration likely toward $800 gamma flip, but mixed flow and VIX ~20 cap conviction.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned (short gamma + mixed flow supporting downside); -1 spot 8.7% below MP; +0.5 VIX 20 (elevated but not panic). Net 6.5/10.

Supports: Negative GEX (-$4M), spot below MP, high vol, weak QQQ/SPY.
Conflicts: Mixed flow (not outright bearish), max pain pins at $900/$790 may attract price.

📉Negative dealer gamma ($-4M) amplifies selloffs; flip at $800.

🎯Max pain $900 (Jun12) and $790 (Jun18) create conflicting attractions.

⚡IV elevated; term structure backwardated – front-end vol premium.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: IV well above 20-day typical range, driven by negative gamma and tech weakness.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending regime: dealers short gamma (-$4M), flip at ~$800; spot below increases downside convexity.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: net premium neutral with slight put bias; no extreme signaling.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain (~$900), ~8.7% distance; potential pin action toward $790 (Jun18).

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming weekly expirations (Jun12, Jun18) and negative gamma create short-term catalyst; structural trend less clear.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$748.61$894.91

Downside toward $800 gamma flip; lower range target ~$749.

Next 1 week

$708.81$934.71

Range $708.81-$934.71; downside bias with max pain $790 acting as attractor.

Next 2 weeks

$675.21$968.31

Wider range $675.21-$968.31; mean reversion risk after possible flush.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $900 (2026-06-12); $790 (2026-06-18); $910 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $748.61/$894.91; 1w $708.81/$934.71

Support: $800.00 · $675.21

Resistance: $900.00 · $968.31

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,178 (2.6% below spot)

Structural: Support: $800 (gamma flip), $675.21 (2w low). Resistance: $900 (max pain Jun12), $968.31 (2w high). MP pins: $900 (Jun12), $790 (Jun18), $910 (Jun26).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-4.0M

DEX: +6.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,178 (2.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$4M (short gamma), DEX +6.7M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$800 (based on 6,178 put OI). Negative gamma amplifies moves below $800.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: LITE IV rich vs VIX; implied vol ~60% vs VIX ~20, reflecting stock-specific event risk and negative gamma premium.

Term structure: Backwardated: front-month elevated, decay steep post-Jun12 expiry; no notable event kinks beyond weekly.

Skew: Put skew elevated (25-delta put ~1.5x call). Opportunity: short front-week puts if confident $800 holds, but risky.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$9.4M bearish; put/call vol 1.02, OI 1.31.

Directional prints: 98.2 put 850 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 7.8; large put volume suggests bearish positioning; likely bought puts. 101.8 call 900 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 8.7; high call volume aligns with bearish net premium; likely sold calls.

Unusual: 101.8 call 900 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 8.7; extreme volume vs OI; signals aggressive positioning. 98.2 put 850 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 7.8; large put volume bearish; likely institutional buying. 118.6 put 735 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 3.6; elevated put activity; could be hedging or speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bullish reversal if spot reclaims $900 max pain, squeezing shorts.

!Gamma flip at $800 fails due to put wall – could stabilize.

!Broader tech rally (QQQ) overriding stock-specific dynamics.

!Low liquidity causing whipsaws in thin order books.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-26 $820.00/$775.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk way to express bearish view with high IV, limited loss if wrong.	Bullish reversal if spot reclaims 900; vol crush. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $820.00 put Why now: High IV offers convexity; max pain below spot and large put OI at 850 support bearish.	Theta decay if move delayed; IV crush on reversal.

Top Plays

Long Put

Buy 2026-06-26 $820.00 put

Expresses direct bearish view with high exposure to downside acceleration.

Why this play: High IV provides convexity; large put OI at 850 supports bearish bias; liquidity pass ensures ease of entry.

Debit: $66.56-$81.35

Max loss: $81.35

BE: $738.65

Mgmt: Monitor spot; close if above $900 invalidation or if IV collapses.

Traders seeking maximum convexity and willing to accept higher premium cost.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $820.00/$775.00 put spread

Expresses bearish view with limited loss if wrong.

Why this play: Defined risk and lower cost; outranked by long put due to liquidity constraints and lower upside.

Debit: $20.57-$25.14

Max loss: $25.14

BE: $794.86

Mgmt: Set stop loss at $900; consider early close if spot drops near short put strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.

Risk-averse traders wanting capped downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF LITE spot drops below $800 (gamma flip) on increased volume → THEN buy 2026-06-26 $820 put (long put) within entry range ($66.56 - $81.35)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF LITE spot closes above $900 (invalidation level) → THEN close long put position immediately

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term: spot below max pain, negative dealer gamma, high vol. Key support at $800 gamma flip; break targets $675. Resistance at $900. Preferred play: long put (liquidity pass). Avoid bear put spread due to poor liquidity. Exit if $900 reclaimed.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.