thetaOwl

LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $863.66EOD only
Max Pain
$935.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$97.75
11.3% from close
Price Gap
+71.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.38
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with downside drift over multi-week horizon. Spot below max pain ($912) and gamma flip (~$800) with negative GEX (-$1.4M) and trending gamma. High vol regime supports further declines, though near-term support at $738 may slow pace.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5 adjusted: -1 GEX/flow contradict, +0.5 spot near MP (1.9% below), +0.5 VIX 19 elevated. Net 5.
Supports: Spot 1.9% from MP ($912); VIX 19; support at $738 (2w low).
Conflicts: Negative GEX (-$1.4M); mixed flow; trending gamma; below gamma flip $800.
📉Negative GEX (-$1.4M) amplifies downside pressure on breaks.
📍Spot below max pain ($912) favors bearish pin action near term.
🛡️Support at $738 and $773 may cap immediate declines.
High vol regime increases risk of sharp moves; stay nimble.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Vol High (>1.2x typical) – elevated IV suggests heightened risk of continued directional moves.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending – negative GEX, dealer hedging likely exacerbates downside momentum.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed – premium flow balanced, no clear net direction from options activity.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below – spot $895 vs max pain $912 (-1.9%), gravitational pull lower but not extreme.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and trending gamma indicate sustained directional risk; spot below key levels supports multi-week bearish thesis.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$773.40$1017.40
Support $773, resistance $1017; bias toward lower half.
Next 2 weeks
$737.90$1052.90
Support $738, resistance $1053; breakdown risk if $738 breaks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $912 (2026-06-12); $790 (2026-06-18); $910 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $773.40/$1017.40
Support: $737.90
Resistance: $912.50 · $1052.90
Gamma flip: ~$800.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,195 (10.7% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $912 (6/12), $790 (6/18), $910 (6/26). EM guardrails 1w $773/$1017. Support $738, resistance $912/$1053. Gamma flip ~$800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.4M

DEX: +6.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,195 (10.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$1.4M, DEX +6.4M shares; gamma flip ~$800 based on put OI concentration (6,195 contracts, 10.7% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV likely rich vs VIX given high vol regime; puts may be expensive for hedging downside.

Term structure: Assume upward sloping with near-term kink near weekly expiry; front-end elevated due to event risk?

Skew: Skew tilted to puts reflecting negative GEX; no clear opportunity but call spreads could benefit if bounce.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $83.4M; put/call vol ratio 0.94, put/call OI ratio 1.33.

Directional prints: 97.5 call 920 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 639 vs OI 147 (4.3x), IV 97.5%. Aggressive call buying likely bullish, but could be short covering. 106.6 put 870 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 355 vs OI 115 (3.1x), IV 106.6%. Heavy put buying suggests bearish hedge or speculation. 105.1 call 900 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 487 vs OI 308 (1.6x), IV 105.1%. Notable call buying, bullish directional play.

Unusual: 97.5 call 920 OTM 2026-06-18 — Extreme vol/OI 4.3x, high IV. Unusually large call volume vs open interest. 106.6 put 870 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 3.1x, high IV. Heavy put volume far exceeds OI, unusual bearish flow. 102.5 call 1100 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 287 vs OI 157 (1.8x), far-dated call. Speculative long-dated bullish bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break above $912 max pain could trigger short squeeze.
!Downside break below $738 support accelerates losses.
!Unexpected positive catalyst (e.g., earnings, macro) could reverse bearish bias.
!Gamma flip at $800 – if spot approaches, dealer hedging may accelerate move.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-02 $900.00/$880.00 put spread
Why now: Max pain $912, gamma flip ~$800; spot below. Bear put spread caps risk and benefits from vol expansion.
Upside rally past $912 max pain could cause losses on long put. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $900.00 put
Why now: Negative GEX and below max pain favor further decline. Long put offers unlimited upside to downside.
Time decay if rally; high IV may compress. Support at $738 may slow pace. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $900.00/$920.00 call spread
Why now: Call credit spread profits from sideways to lower price and time decay. High vol inflates premium.
Upside break above 900 from squeeze or catalyst could cause max loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Defined Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $900.00/$880.00 put spread
Captures downside drift with defined risk, utilizing high vol for premium.
Why this play: Best risk-reward for bearish thesis with capped loss and vol benefit.
Debit: $9.45-$11.55
Max loss: $11.55
BE: $888.45
Mgmt: Exit if spot rallies above $912.5. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Moderate bearish traders seeking bounded risk.
#2
Unlimited Bear Put
Buy 2026-07-10 $900.00 put
Direct bet on further decline with leveraged downside exposure.
Why this play: Unlimited downside profit potential, though higher entry cost.
Debit: $95.31-$116.49
Max loss: $116.49
BE: $783.51
Mgmt: Trail stop or take profit after 2-3 sigma move. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive bearish traders expecting sharp move.
#3
Bearish Call Credit
Sell 2026-07-02 $900.00/$920.00 call spread
Sell call spread to collect premium; benefits if spot stays below $900.
Why this play: Profits from time decay and capped upside, but lower directional conviction.
Credit: $9.09-$11.11
Max loss: $8.89
BE: $911.11
Mgmt: Buy back if spot approaches $900. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Traders expecting sideways to lower price.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot breaks below $800 gamma flipEnter LITE_BEAR_PUT_1 (buy 2026-07-02 $900/$880 put spread) at $9.45-$11.55
IFIf spot breaks below $738 supportEnter LITE_LONG_PUT_1 (buy 2026-07-10 $900 put) at $95.31-$116.49
IFIf spot rallies to $900 and rejectsEnter LITE_CALL_CREDIT_1 (sell 2026-07-02 $900/$920 call spread) at $9.09-$11.11
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot closes above $912.5Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias multi-week. Spot below max pain $912 and gamma flip $800 with negative GEX. Support $738, resistance $912/$1053. Favor bear put spread for defined risk; long put for aggressive; call credit for lower conviction. Invalidation: above $912.5.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.