thetaOwl

LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $945.08EOD only
Max Pain
$900.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$41.70
4.4% from close
Price Gap
-45.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
1.42
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
LITE Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias into tech sell-off with high vol and negative gamma, but spot below max pain suggests pin pressure. Dealer delta positive provides support, conflicting with negative gamma. Thesis leans bearish near term, neutral to bullish for gamma reversion.

Confidence:
4 / 10
Base 5 adjusted: -1 GEX/flow contradict, -0.5 spot 4% below MP, +0.5 VIX 22. Net 4.0.
Supports: DEX +6.8M shares (dealer long delta), VIX 22 for vol premium, gamma flip at $800 as support.
Conflicts: GEX -$7M negative gamma accelerates moves, high vol uncertain, mixed flow.
📉Negative gamma -$7M; spot vulnerable to sharp moves below $800 flip.
📈DEX +6.8M shares bullish delta; dealers hedged long underpins market.
⚠️Spot 4% below MP $900; pin effect may pull price upward.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated relative to typical range; VIX at 21.5 reflects tech sell-off. Ticker IV above sector average.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$7.0M (moderate negative gamma); gamma flip near $800 (7.4% below spot).
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net premium mixed; put/call ratio not extreme. Mixed dealer bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~863, below max pain $900; 4% gap implies upward pin attraction over time.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — 1w and 2w price ranges defined; gamma flip and MP pin suggest multi-week reversion.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$765.91$961.41
High vol and negative gamma favor downside toward $765.91 support before pin recovery.
Next 2 weeks
$731.36$995.96
Max pain and positive dealer delta may lift toward $900 resistance.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $900 (2026-06-05); $935 (2026-06-12); $790 (2026-06-18)
EM guardrails: 1w $765.91/$961.41
Support: $800.00 · $731.36
Resistance: $900.00 · $995.96
Gamma flip: ~$800.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,232 (7.4% below spot)
Structural: Support: $800 (gamma flip), $731.36 (2w low). Resistance: $900 (max pain), $995.96 (2w high). EM guardrails 1w $765.91/$961.41.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.0M

DEX: +6.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,232 (7.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$7.0M (negative gamma), DEX +6.8M shares (long delta), gamma flip near $800.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX; ticker IV elevated due to tech sector stress. Richness implies premium selling opportunity if vol recedes.

Term structure: Steepened; front-month IV higher reflecting immediate sell-off, back-month lower. Event kinks at weekly expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads to capitalize on pin to $900 or upside reversion.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $12.1M; call volume exceeds puts (P/C 0.83) but OI put-heavy (1.38).

Directional prints: 65.6 call 950 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.0x, OI 510. Heavy OTM call buying. Preferred read: bought. 35 put 870 ITM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 5.9x, OI 183. Large put volume, potential hedge. Preferred read: bought. 83.6 call 970 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 4.3x, OI 104. High IV OTM call buying. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 161.5 call 990 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.1x, IV 161.5%. Deep OTM call with extreme IV. Preferred read: bought. 94.5 put 850 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.7x, IV 94.5%, last 104.0. Far-dated ITM put with high IV. Preferred read: bought. 84.4 call 980 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.0x, IV 84.4%. OTM call with elevated IV. Preferred read: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip $800 accelerates selling.
!Vol expansion past 21.5 VIX spikes IV further.
!Negative gamma and mixed flow amplify whipsaws.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $880.00/$860.00 put spread
Why now: Negative gamma and elevated IV favor defined-risk bearish debit spread; put-heavy OI supports downside.
Pin risk if spot rallies; theta decay hurts long put leg. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2025-07-05 $880.00 missing; used 2026-06-12 $880.00.; short_put: resolved contract 2025-07-05 $860.00 missing; used 2026-06-12 $860.00.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $860.00/$830.00 put spread
Why now: High IV and bearish flow suggest near-term downside; defined risk limits loss if move reverses.
Whipsaws from negative gamma; max loss if spot rallies above short strike.
Call diagonalModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-26 $890.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $860.00 call
Why now: Term structure supports selling near-term vol; long back-month call profits from reversion.
Short call caps upside if rally exceeds short strike; IV contraction hurts long leg. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Near-Term Bear Put
Buy 2026-06-12 $880.00/$860.00 put spread
Captures downside from negative gamma and elevated IV
Why this play: Best aligned with near-term bearish bias; defined risk, good liquidity
Debit: $9.99-$12.21
Max loss: $12.21
BE: $867.79
Mgmt: Exit if spot > $900
Near-term bearish traders
#2
Medium-Term Bear Put
Buy 2026-06-26 $860.00/$830.00 put spread
Benefits from persistent bearish flow with defined risk
Why this play: Extends bearish view with higher max gain, but longer duration
Debit: $13.77-$16.83
Max loss: $16.83
BE: $843.17
Mgmt: Roll if thesis persists near expiry
Multi-week bearish outlook
#3
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $890.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $860.00 call
Sells near-term vol, buys back-month for reversion
Why this play: Less aligned with bearish thesis; liquidity concerns
Debit: $41.81-$51.10
Max loss: $51.10
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Adjust short leg near $890 Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Advanced, neutral-to-bullish traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $800 gamma flip with volumeTHEN buy 2026-06-12 $880/$860 put spread for 9.99-12.21 debit
IFIF spot holds below $800 for 1-2 daysTHEN buy 2026-06-26 $860/$830 put spread for 13.77-16.83 debit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot > $900 max painTHEN exit bear_put_spread_1 position

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term with negative gamma. Key support $800 (gamma flip). Top play: bear put spreads for defined risk. Exit if spot > $900. For medium-term, add bear put spread on sustained weakness below $800. Diagonal only if support holds and vol stabilizes.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.