LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $945.08EOD onlyThis page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Bearish bias into tech sell-off with high vol and negative gamma, but spot below max pain suggests pin pressure. Dealer delta positive provides support, conflicting with negative gamma. Thesis leans bearish near term, neutral to bullish for gamma reversion.
Conflicts: GEX -$7M negative gamma accelerates moves, high vol uncertain, mixed flow.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-7.0M
DEX: +6.8M shares
Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,232 (7.4% below spot))
NTM gamma: GEX -$7.0M (negative gamma), DEX +6.8M shares (long delta), gamma flip near $800.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX; ticker IV elevated due to tech sector stress. Richness implies premium selling opportunity if vol recedes.
Term structure: Steepened; front-month IV higher reflecting immediate sell-off, back-month lower. Event kinks at weekly expiries.
Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads to capitalize on pin to $900 or upside reversion.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net call premium $12.1M; call volume exceeds puts (P/C 0.83) but OI put-heavy (1.38).
Directional prints: 65.6 call 950 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.0x, OI 510. Heavy OTM call buying. Preferred read: bought. 35 put 870 ITM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 5.9x, OI 183. Large put volume, potential hedge. Preferred read: bought. 83.6 call 970 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 4.3x, OI 104. High IV OTM call buying. Preferred read: bought.
Unusual: 161.5 call 990 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.1x, IV 161.5%. Deep OTM call with extreme IV. Preferred read: bought. 94.5 put 850 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.7x, IV 94.5%, last 104.0. Far-dated ITM put with high IV. Preferred read: bought. 84.4 call 980 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.0x, IV 84.4%. OTM call with elevated IV. Preferred read: bought.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-06-12 $880.00/$860.00 put spread Why now: Negative gamma and elevated IV favor defined-risk bearish debit spread; put-heavy OI supports downside. | Pin risk if spot rallies; theta decay hurts long put leg. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2025-07-05 $880.00 missing; used 2026-06-12 $880.00.; short_put: resolved contract 2025-07-05 $860.00 missing; used 2026-06-12 $860.00. |
| Bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-06-26 $860.00/$830.00 put spread Why now: High IV and bearish flow suggest near-term downside; defined risk limits loss if move reverses. | Whipsaws from negative gamma; max loss if spot rallies above short strike. |
| Call diagonal | Moderate-Weak | Sell 2026-06-26 $890.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $860.00 call Why now: Term structure supports selling near-term vol; long back-month call profits from reversion. | Short call caps upside if rally exceeds short strike; IV contraction hurts long leg. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.